KS 55, I knew Malakoff, Powertek, YTL power,Mudajaya,Jaks and mfcb were in power generation many years ago. I do not know the in and out of power generation .I bought malakoff,powertek and ytl power and then sold making reasonable profits. I bought mfcb and jaks which I havent sold. If I decide to sell.today, I would have made reasonable.profits too. I wont claim I am smarter than kyy in selecting stocks with power generation business. Results counts. I believe timing of entry and timing to get out is important . In my opinion, kyy entered jaks at wrong timing and then forced to exit jaks with margin calls at a lost.He himself admitted making a big mistake in jaks at the wrong timing. Anyway, both of us made the right decisions in dayang.

Gemfinder, did u read the rules of the stock pick competition?Obviously you did not.

DK66, Thanks for your support

Hi Mr Tan KW, my picks are as follows
1.MFCB 30%
2.JAKS 30%
3.MKH 15%
4.Dayang 15%
4.Dpharma 10%

I will resubmit on 31st DEC after 4.30pm

DK66, Thanks for the info. Cold eye did recommended both JAKS and MFCB in Nov 2016. He did see the potentials of these 2 stocks which possess power plants concessions .

Thanks Vin , I hope Jaks will folloe the path of mfcb . Then 2020 and 2021 will be great years for Power Play.

MFCB hit 5.00 for the.first time in history. Its warrant also hit all time high at 2.76. The Don.Sahong power plant is expected to commence full commercial operation next qtr. The projected eps from this 260 MW power plant is 50 sen. I added both mfcb and its warrant at 3.30 and.1.50 six months ago in big qty premised on its great potential earning. If there is no unforeseen obstacles or hiccup, Jaks will be in the same scenario as mfcb today when comes July 2020, the Hai Duong power plant is expected to go into commercial operation.for its 600 mw power plant. The market will give similar PE to Jaks projected eps . 2020 will be a good year for companies with.power plants of completions

Mr Tan ,please reserve one seat for.me if it is still available.

Kukuman, regarding your question why kyy dont want to come back to Jaks, you can find the answers in.his numerous articles on.dayang. KYY really sayang Dayang because he made more than 60 million on dayang .Whatever amount he lost in Jaks last year due to margin call, he got it back through.Dayang. He felt that dayang is a good stock worth keeping and he decided to continue parking his money in dayang . As the chinese saying.goes, good horse will not come back.to eat old grasses. He found a greenrr pastures in dayang. I also love dayang and found new love in mfcb and Jaks.

Kukuman, are you a bomoh? You seems to set tgt price based on."Mark my words " . When I lost my bicycle in the 60s , I engaged a.bomoh to see whether I can find it, the bomoh told me "Mark my words", you sure can find your bicycle tomorrow. I waited for months and then years, I still.couldnt find my bicycle. DK 66 used facts and professional methodology to value and justify the values of Jaks. We trust his figures better than bomoh method.

Kukuman, It was you who said you made a.mistake buying Jaks in 2016 . I take it as losing.money if making a mistake. I am sorry if your mistake is actually making money.

Kukuman, you bought Jaks.in 2016 which.is.before kyy promoted it 。Although it is too early to buy when the completion date is 3 to 4 years away, your cost is still.below 1.00 considering you subscribe to the right issues plus warrant given to you. If you really bought it because of potential profit of Hai DONG power plant and keep it until today, it is still not really a mistake. I suspected you sold it at a loss in 2018 when the price went down sharply . Pls do not mix up the value of a company.with market prices. The prices can.swing temporarily depending on M r market emotions while its value remain unchanged.FA knowledge will help you see the value .

Kukuman, You said boughtJaks in.2016 when the whole year eps is less than 1 sen. In 2017, its full year eps is about 9 sen if you take away the one off the 88k income. 2018 is another bad year with total eps of only 4.5 sen. I will not buy JAKS in 2016 ,2017 and even.2018 when the financial performance is so.bad and the completion date of the power plant is still.far away. In 2019, the.situation is different , the last 3 qtr cumulative eps is.already more than 15 sen. When DK 66 articles showed the great potentials of the PP coupled with completion dates getting nearer, I saw bigger.fishes in the pond. I am curious why you cannot see bigger fishes in 2019 but managed to see fishes in 2016 when actually there were none in 2016. I think you should learn FA to enable you to see fishes better.

DK 66, based on what he wrote , he could have a bad experience in JAKS when kyy Promoted the stock.2 years ago and then the stock nose dive from a peak of 1.80 to 40 sen. He is psychologically.treating you as another KYY trying to repeat what kyy did without realising the big difference between you and kyy. KYY lost 64 million in.Jaks due to margin.call . Kuku.thought you also lost money in Jaks by assuming you went in at 1.40 and.get stuck .He is not objective anymore. Obviously,he refused to read what you write and critique on your article. He see you as another kyy . He needs time to get over the nightmare he experienced. I.think.many others could have the same.bad experience with Jaks last year.

Kukuman, did you.buy Jaks ? At what price you bought?Why are you so hostile to DK 66? Did you get burned inJAKS because you bought JAKS at the peak? DK has been very kind and generous to share his knowledge and experience . Instead of making fair remarks , you picked on him. Pls.share your investment experience so that we can make our comments too.

OTB, DK 66,Future Eyes and all investors in i3, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Looking forward to a Prosperous New Year with JAKS.

Kukuman, I remembered I did commented I added 300k units at.90 sen but I did not ask anyone to buy at this price.You can read my positive comments about. dayang since March 2019. You can say that I promoted Dayang when the prices was at 1.35 and keep promoting while it was at 90 sen and continued promoting when it went up again to.1.70 again. I sold all.my dayang shares when it went up to 2.00. To be frank, I regretted selling at around.2.00. I would have made another 30% within one month.if I had kept it till today. To console my self ,I bought back 50 K at 1.93 ex right issue and still keeping it. This is life , you cant win everyting always.I am happy with my dayang return despite the scare in May snd June

In stock investment ,it is not difficult to find a big majority who are irrational and do the reverse of what rational people would do. That s why Warren Buffet had his famous.quotes, Be a contrarian, when peoples are.fearful,you must be greedy,when.peoples are greedy ,you must be fearful. Take for example during 1998,when the composite index plunge from to 250pt,from the peak of 1300,many dared not enter thinking that it will go down further. Another example is dayang. The fear of right issues and poorer qoq result although better yoy made the share plunge almost 20%. The share plunged further to less than 90 sen with downgrades from the stupid and short term 4 IBs who downgraded the share to.80 sen. Many cut losses and.sold . The forum.suddenly.becomes very quiet. I saw the opportunity and added 300k units at 90 sen. Today dayang share price is equivalent to 2.60 before the.right issue. It is 3x of the price 6 month ago.Hope.these examples will help. investors see the the irrationality of stock movements and make good judgements.

There are always risk in any investment. Our job as savvy investor is to try to estimate AS ACCURATE AS POSDIBLE on its future earnings with certain.Assumptions and then.invest with.Good margin of safety. Besides those Blue chips like Nestle, Panamy, Dutch Lady etc which we can predict quite well on.their future earnings ,no other stocks future earnings can have such.a good earning visibility as JAKS and MFCB. Take the worst case scenario of rm 110 million profit for 2019 and rm 150 million.for 2020 and 200 million for 2021 ,the eps are 19 s, 23s and 31s respectively. With today closing price of rm 1.22, the PE are 6.3, 5.4 and 3.9 respectively. The margin of safety.is more than sufficient. Do.those stocks with good earning visibilities have such margin of safety as JAKS?

In Chinese Calender, we have mid Autumn and.Mid.Winter .Happy Winter Solstice , 冬至快乐.

Haha DK, I cant find anyone better than you in knowing the indepth details of Jaks power plant. We are greteful to you for your generosity in sharing . Thank you so much.

DK 66, You have been very generous in trying to answer most of the questions post to you even though some question you may not have good answer. I remembeted asking my wife why she did not terminate our relationship when I promised to marry her after I complete my degree in 4 years but I did not due to failures in some subjects which I need to extend my study 。She asked me why I asked this question when we already got married and have 3 children. I told her this is a sensible question but she told me she cant remember and it.is not important anymore .Luckily she did not say I am 7 old 8 old still.ask this question

OTB, will do when I go down to KL. thanks

Otb and Vin , I will be glad if we can meet to have lunch or dinner together . I m from the North and travel to the south frequently . Hope someone can arrange a meet together either in. KL , JB or Malacca.

Thank you Vin3313 and Probability.for your compliments.

mmk79, my 2019 return year todate is 26 % . I have losses in other stocks like Supermx, Tongher ,CIMB which pull down my return .

Ricky and Jilohuat, thanks for the encouragemrnts. My intention of sharing is to let peoples know the wonders of compounding and how a reasonable and realistic tgt return of mere 18 to 20% per year can skyrocket your initial investment to an astronomical numbers . Many are able to do it and we are not short of such stocks which generate more than 18% annually. Public bank, the 4 top glove makers and the semiconductors counters are good examples of multibaggers within 15 to 20 years. Public.Bank generate a return of 19% from1967 to 2013. If you had invested one lot of public bank in 1967 and continue to subscribe to all its right issues, the one lot investment plus all the dividends would have made you a millionaire within 40years.

OTB, DK66 and Edkfc , Thanks for the compliments . Looking forward , I wish to repeat my accomplishment through MFCB and Jaks in the next 4 years . I hope these 2 stocks will at least double their prices which will enable me to meet my tgt of 18 to 20 % return per annum. With another 3 to 4 % dividend yield , the return will be more than 20 %.

Tomorrow is Friday . Many are already on holiday mood. With another one week to go , 2019 will end . It is time to take stock of the achievement or failure for 2019.. As for me, 2019 is a good year for me in stock investment. My total return is 26 % ytd. My top 3 investment are Dsyang ,mfcb, mfcb warrant and Jaks.. I had also invested in property and hotel for the past 12 years with fairly good returns but to me stock investment is still the best. My last 21years stock investment give me an average return of 18 to 20 %. I started with RM 170k in 1998 when the KLSE crash to 250 pt. The 18 to 20% annual compounded return will double your investment every 4 years. There are altogether 5 Four years within 20years. The final accumulated number will.be rm 170 x 2 to the power of 5 which is 32. The total is 5.44 million.

corrections between 10 to 20 %
of the peak is normal if you invest for medium.and long term. Mfcb also had such corrections with such magnitudes。Dayang corrected much much more to almost 50%. Those who hold until today are laughing all the way to the banks while those who exited early were cursing unless you bought back early

Agreed with both DK 66, OTB and KYY that securing.such.a juicy contract from the Viet government and making deals with other partner requires more than shrewdness in.business. Relationship and connection with top leaders and partners are important prerequisites. Andy do have such capabilities.

LKOH,yes . mfcb has a 50 years concessions from.cambodian government to develop 6420 ha. of coconut plantation starting from April 2013. It will be a new stream of revenue.and profit starting from the next few years

I think a PE of 12 is reasonable if mfcb pay a dividend of 30 s per share annually. At a price of rm 7.5 , the 30 s dividend.translate into dividend yield of 4 which is better than FD rate.

Turbo , I agreed with you that the tgt price of RM 12.57 is too optimistic . Based on report from Public invest , the Don Sahong 260 MW power plant is estimated to generate RM 240 to 260 million per year which translate into about 50 sen per share .Besides the power division , MFCB do have Resource and Property Division which had been generating more than RM 100 million revenue per year and about 20 to 30 million profit annually . Assuming 25 million profit from these divisions , this is an additional 5 sen eps . Lastly , the 5th turbine will also generate profit during the 4 years construction . By taking 1/4 of the 260 mw annual profit which is about 175 million per year , mfcb will have another 43 million annual profit from this 5th turbine project . This is euivalent to another 8.6 sen eps. Hence the total eps from 2020 onwards will be 50 + 5 + 8.6 = 63.6 sen. Assuming a PE of 10, 12 and 15 respectively , the mfcb prices will be RM 6.36, RM 7.63 or RM 9.54 . When the 5th turbine is completed in 2023 , the eps from the commercial operation will be estimated to be 12.5 sen eps ( 50 s divide by 4 ) . Then the total eps will be 67.5 sen .

MFCB CEO is a shrewd and smart entrepener from Malacca. In yr 2000, I had a few encounters with him.on LED business. He had very good relationship with Hun Sen ,the cambodian PM. He had a beer business in.Cambodia , LED lighting business in Malaaca and tyre business in.Australia. Although the Don.Sahong.power plant is in.Laos, the JV signed an agreement to sell.200MW of electricity to Cambodia.

Yesterday mfcb broke new high . My biggest porfolio is mfcb followed by JAKS. It is worth the waiting since I accumulated.more and more since 6 months ago. The money is in the waiting. Due to mfcb completed the pp ahead of schedule and with high electricity demand , mfcb was awarded the 5th turbine which will be completed in 2023..Good job deserve more job. Who knows along the line Jaks may be given.snother.contract called Hai Doung 2.since the Hai Duong will be completed 6 months ahead of schedule.

Free Cash Flow is ranked the second most important criteria of the 5 factors which Cold Eye used to select stock for investment. For JHDP ,the yearly instalment for the US 1.4 billion loan at 6 % is US108 million annually for 25 years . Based on DK 66 estimate using the annual 6500 hrs scenario, the EBITA is US228 million before interest expense and depreciation . Hence the nett cash flow is US 120 million per year which translate into nett cash generated per share of 23.5 sen using 643 million Jaks total shares . If we use the 7238 hrs scenario , the Nett Cash per share generated is about 30 sen . This is 7 to 10 x return compared with FD of 3 % annual return . Although the risk is higher than the FD ,in my opinion , the 8 to 10 x multiple returns is worth the risk .

Haha, sampai hari ini masih ada orang percaya donation berbilion dari prince Arab Saudi.. Di Malaysia , masih ramai suka percaya yang bukan bukan. Bomoh bomoh masih ada bisnes

mfcb and.its warrant at record high today

Haha. It is like you have sign the agreement to buy a house, bank loan approved already and payment released, you are not sure the seller will let go the house

The IRR of 12 % come the the horse mouth which is JAK top management. DK66 latest article showed that the IRR can go up to.15.6% if the effective annual operation hrs can go up from.6500 hrs to 7236 hrs as Vinh.Tan PP has demonstrated in last year performance. Assumimg the capital or borrowing.rates.is 6 %, there is at least a net gain of 6 % per annum of the total investment of US 1.868 billion. In fact some of the 1.868 billion investment.are actually.from the profits of the project itself. Therefore the actuall nett IRR is.higher than 6%.

The votality of Jaks in.the last 3 weeks remind me of Dayang in May and June when prices plunge from the high of 1.60 to a low of less than 90 sen due to " concerns of right issue and poor Q1 result". Those who hold and convinced of the long term potentials of dayang.end up the real winners with more than 100 % gain. Today Jaks dont even.have such "converns" except the 2 IBs low tgt prices. As I.mentioned in my previous comments,the IBs finally upgraded dayang. to 3x of the low tgt price within 5 months once the potentials of dayang was finally realised. The successful right issues turned out to be a plus rather than"concerns".Jaks seems to follow the same path. The real money comes from.the waiting.,patience.and.conviction

We continued.to top up since two weeks ago .Now, Jaks is my.second largest portfolio after MFCB and warrant. Thanks to DK 66 for his latest article reaffirm the good value of JAKS.

In the last few days , I went through a few articles including some from DK 66 to have a better understanding about the JV , capital funding , potential future earnings , interest expenses etc to refresh myself . Let me start with the JV on the Vietnam Power Plant. The project is US 1.868 billion which was funded by 25 % equity through US 140 million (30%) by Jaks ,another US 140 million(30 %) by CPEEC , US 189 million (40 %) by RCPS ( renewable convertable preference shares )subscribed by CPEEC and US 1.4 billion (75%)loans . Although the project is US 1.868 billion, the JV subcontrated US 454.5 million to Jaks and another US 1.06 billion to CPEEC in 30/70 proportion to the respective JV partners so that both can make money through executing the projects. Based on simple mathematics , although the JV has a total of US 1.868 billion funding , it needs only US 1.514 billion to get the project completed . There is some excess money in the JV after project completion . The US 1.4 billion loan is bridging loan and the capital injection seems to be bridging too . Jaks has paid about US 81 million with another balance US 59 million to top up to reach the US 140 million capital . Hope this help to refresh others and please comment if there is any miscalculation or wrong intepretation.

we already have many fission nuclear power plants all over the world producing electricity but it is more risky than the conventional coals

HuatRex ,many of us invested in JAKS because we did our homework reading and verifying the facts regarding JAKS business and future potentials. We dont put our money in Jaks without knowing the business and hoping the price will go up by just doing promotional works in.i3.

special thanks to DK 66 and Probability for strenthening the justification in JAKS value in DK s previous report. A good refresher to read the few reports again with new favourable inputs like better tariff rates plus lower coal prices .

Sslee, DK 66 had done that. I remember he put various discounted rates and arrived at various corresponding current values. The worst case , Jaks is valued at 2.93 even with a huge discount rate of.12%.

OTB made a lot of money in Dayang becuase of his own efforts and ability through his own competence in.both.FA and TA . I did not buy at rock bottom of 58 s but at an average of 1.20 and did not sell at the peak of 2.15 but an average of 180. OTB made more than 100%
in dayang . I only made about 50%. I am not good in TA. OTB is being humble. g

sense maker, likewise mfcb is having.the sane aituation