Based on HL Invest report, the earnings for 2019,2020 and 2021 are expected to grow at 18 ,16 % and 6 % respectively due to better margin ,better order replenishments , better Perdana chartering business .Both QOQ and YOY earnings are expected to improve for Q2 and Q3 . Dayang's earning and revenue in 2018 are already a record . Based on HL forcast , we can deduce that 2019 ,2020 and 2021 will continue to break records if the forcast turn into reality . HL report does not touch on FCF generation . We expect FCF to have similar growth . This will speed up the debt repayment on top of the RI and PP .

Harold , my average price is higher because we also bought dayang earlier at higher prices . Still not making money yet .
We are not selling because we expect Q2 and Q3 to have better financial results than Q1 . As an anology , We know that a durian plantation owner can sell more durians in Q2 ( April ,May June ) and Q3 ( July, August and Sept) than Q1 ( Jan , Feb and March ) . I believe the IB will upgrade dayang again once the Q2 result is out . Does anyone believe me when I tell them if you buy a durian plantation with matured trees , they can sell much more durians in Q2 and Q3 than Q1 ? It is like saying there will be more rainful in Q2 and Q3 than in Q1 . Sometimes I just do not understand why peoples are so panicky when they do not see much rain in Q1 . Dayang business is very seasonal .

I and my family bought 300k shares of Dayang at 90 sen a month ago when after Q1 result was out . The panic selling plus IB downgrade provided the great opportunity to buy at extremely good price . This is the contrarian approach in investing . When Peoples are fearful , you must be greedy . Of course , we buy with our eyes open knowing fully well that Dayang has good track record in FCF generation , good growth and good future potentials with huge order book . Teoct and me had written a number of comment in our forum that we expect 2019 to be a good year for both Dayang and Perdana.

HLG just upgraded TP from 0.88 in less than a month ago to 1.21. All of a sudden ,they woke up and realised that dayang is worth 40% more in less than a month. Those who sold below 1.00 after kenanga and HLG downgrade
to 0.88 must be cursing like hell.

Finally, Trump comes to his senses. His relatives and his cronies must have bought enough stocks at low prics in the last one month. Both will shake hands and hug each other.China will buy more oils,soya beans,beef and Boeing while Trump will stop banning Huawei.

In the history of acquisitions, no acquisitions are perfect,some are disasters . Topglove acquired a Singaporean company but later was found to have overpaid by a few hundred millions. Supermx also acquired two companies in 2008 but later found that these 2 companies are a burden and disasters. These two companies moved on and managed it be it a good or bad acquisitions. In my opinion ,dayang is a growth company if you look at the 10 years record of dayang financials .It has grown more than 4x in terms of revenue and earnings . It also means that the growth in revenue and earnings are about 15 % per annum . Its growth in Free Cash Flow is even more impressive at a whopping 6x within 10 years . This growth in both revenue , earnings and FCF are attributes of good fundamentals of a company. The FCF is about 25 to 30 % of revenue on average . This high FCF has enabled dayang to pay off more than 700 million debts in the last 3 years . With the debt restructuring and perdana is better financial footing ,dayang should do better in the next few years premised on its more than 3 billion order book.

Teoct , thanks for putting up a comprehensive business fundamentals of dayang and perdana .You have highlited the key points that Dayang profitability is a function of not only dayang 's profitability itself but also 60 % of perdana P and L. Based on the details of debt restructuring , it appears that Dayang is "burdened " with the acquisition of Perdana at relatively high cost .However , The management of Dayang had repeatedly emphasised that the acquisition is synergistic with dayang 's business .They also attributed their ability to get a big chunk of the HUC and other maintainance business due to the synergy of dayang and perdana . In the last annual report , the CEO attributed the 2018 record earnings and revenue from this synergy. With better 2019 Q1 yoy results for both Dayang and Perdana , we expect both companies to do well in 2019 .

Both US and China knows there is no winner in trade war but Trump still want to start the trade war. Why? What is in his mind? Only US democracy will elect such a moronic President. China will never have such third class president .To qualify for such important post, you must have the experience and credentials managing at least a province successfully before being considered as president. Imagine a CEO of a big multinational is elected by all the employees and anyone including production operator can stand for CEO post. An outspoken operator with zero knowledge of managing a country might be elected as CEO if he or she can lobby enough support .The company will go down to the drain。This is exactly what happen to US .Trump is a mad and dangerous president.

KC, great message by using dayang as an example of human herds mentality which are influenced by the crowds without looking into the reality and details of fundamentals. Humans tends to go into both extremes of fear and greed. Dayang pricing in the last 6 months exhibited clearly the two extremes.First the over optimistic over possibilty of 2019 repeating the 2018 Q4 result rather than looking at the very seasonal nature of dayang business. Dayang's very seansonal business is very much like durian plantaion business where q2 and q3 will give the highest revenues whereas q4 will be lower but q1 will be the worst.Dont expect durians runtuh in Jan ,Feb and March. Applying the golden rules on such seasonal business is foolish. When Q1 result which was actually better yoy and the best ever q1 since 2016, the crowds behave as though dayang was gone financially .The share price drop 20 % in one day.The crowds do not look at the huge nett generation capability of dayang for both 2019 q1 and also the last 3 years. The devils are in the details.
Your article definetely served the purpose of educating the majority of investors including myself.

teoct , great work with so much details . Thanks for the sharing

Since China opened up in 1978,it has seen world recession in 1985, asian financial crisis in 1998 , US financial crisis in 2008 , Europe financial crisis in 2011. China continued its growth unscatched by these crisis. China had proven to the world that its socialist system with chinese character work well in China. They, the CCP like to model the Singapore system where PAP had delivered with its almost 60 years of unchanged ruling government which provide a stable capitalist plus socialist system which take care of its citizen welfare much more than other so called democratic and fully capitalist sytem.

The trade war may end soon. China has decided to buy soya beans and corns from US. China has also decided to lower car import tariff from 40 % to 15%. Trump said deal will be done soon.

Stop fanning racial sentiments.between Chinese and Malays. PLs get your statistics correct. Most Chinese companies employ 50 % or more Malays and Indians. There are many qualified Malays and Indians who were employed by these private companies. Look at the Chinese vernacular schools which were funded by the private sectors. These schools accept all races without discrimination unlike the government funded Mara and Matriculation. Currently there are 18 % of Malays study in chinese vernavular schools.

perdana clinched contracts recently to rent out 15 out of their 16 vessels. We expect good vessels utilization in the coming years. One vessel average 5 million revenue per qtr. We can expect better performamce from perdana moving forward. This will have positive impact on dayang financial.

China is no more practising communism advocated by Karl Marx. The economic system used by China has been transformed to capitalist but China maintain the political system of single party rule.They call such hybrid system as socialist systemt with chinese character

The US and Trump wants to supress China by forcing it to adopt western style democracy and busness models so tht China can be like INDIA which is the biggest democracy in the world . Trump like the Indian democratic political system because India post no threat to US technologicl edge when it cant develop its own high speed train, 5G ,AI,smartphones and its own fighter jets.Trump is fearful of China socialist system with chinese character which produce results that challenge.US number 1 position

很可悲的是有些华人零可相信出爾反爾的特郎普，而不相信習近平。

supersaiyan3,什么毁约？合约都还没儉,毁什么约啊。

The average eps of dayang in terms of cash is about 25 sen per year for the last few years . This is much better than the eps in the book.The value of.a company depends very much on the ability to generate solid cash.
Cash is real.

The recent drop in oil prices will not have any effect on dayang profitability unless it drop below 50 dollars. Based on past 3 years record when.the Brent average at about 50 dollars per barrel,Dayang generate more than 700 million cash and pay off 700 million debt for 2016,2017 and 2018. If the.average.oil prices is more than 60 dollar for this year,we expect more oil rigs will be operational .Hence dayang should do better financially this year than the average of past 3 years.

wow. 20 million shares transacted within 1 hr 20 mins. Big players are buying?

Many are asking what is the catalyst fo the sharp rise in dayang price yesterday.I believe this catalyst was the good news that perdana got a contract to rent out 11 vessels to petronas for 3 years. Together with the earlier contract with petronas carigali perdana almost rent out 90% of its vessels.Vessel Utilization is the key indicator of its revenue. With good utlization rate,perdana will.be profitable. Since.dayang own 60% of perdana, dayang p&l will directly.benefit from this news.The other reason I believe is dayang was oversold due to unreasonable publicity of "bad new" earlier.

Sslee, there is a scholar in Taiwan who summarise and compile the three teachings of Confucianism (濡),Buddism (釋)and Taoism (道)into one . Among the 3 teachings, Confucianism has the greatest influence on Chinese Culture. Lee Kuan Yew is a confucianist. During an interview with CCTV 4,he was asked which aspect of confucianism he like.the most. His answer is the 五倫 as what you described .

Sslee, there is a scholar in Taiwan who summarise and compile the three teachings of Confucianism (濡),Buddism (釋)and Taoism (道)into one . Among the 3 teachings, Confucianism has the greatest influence on Chinese Culture. Lee Kuan Yew is a confucianist. During an interview with CCTV 4,he was asked which aspect of confucianism he like.the most. His answer is the 五倫 as what you described .

Upekka is Equanimity in Sanskrit.

Buddism is gaining popularity in Western countries. Teaching of Buddism.The 4 Noble truth, The Middle Path or the 8 fold path, The law of karma. For common peoples like us, we should observe the first 4 of the 8 middle path.These are Right thought, Right Speech,Right Action and Right livelihood.The other teaching of buddism are the practice of Right States of Mind. The 4 states right state of mind are metta (loving kindness), Karuna (Compassion),Mudita(Sympathetic Joy or the joy of delighting others)and lastly Equainimity ( neutrality,tranquility,calmness,peacefulness,no anger,no hatred,no jealousy,no envy,no sadness ).

In my opinion , KCC 's advice is right . Better keep the money in EPF and work with EPF to have a monthly withdrawal plan of 8 k . Since he has RM 1.8 million , the interest of this 1.8 million is sufficient to pay him 8k a month assuming an average of 5.33 %. I think EPF can deliver this return based on past few years record .

Teoct, you are welcomed . Many viewed the latest Q1 result as "very bad " because of big expectation following KYY's articles . If we analyse the results in greater details , it is not bad after all when its yoy continue to improve since 2018 . Its nett cash generation of RM 88 million enabled Dayang to reduce its borrowings by 76 million in Q1 despite a seasonably weak qtr due to monsoon . I expect Dayang to be able to pay off a total of RM 300 million in 2019 if it can achieve the more than 1.1 billion revenue as forecasted . A cash generation of more than RM 300 million is equivalent to more than 30 sen per share before private placement and right issue. I am not sure if Dayang still needs to proceed with the right issue and private placement which can generate about RM 150 million assuming the average price of 92 sen of last 5 working days before the exercise . I have been asking myself whether I will buy a share from someone at 92 sen when he told me that this 92 sen share can generate 30 sen cash per year. This is a hefty 33 % .

Ooi Teik Bee, you are welcomed. Iam glad you find my comment informative. I hope my comment will help investors to see things in proper perspective rather than fueled by emotions which every humans (including myself) got influenced somehow by the masses.

correction! the rolling eps improved to 18.78 from 17 sen not 27. typo error.

Dayang has improved yoy performances for the last 5 qtrs.Although Q1 2019 did dissapoint ,it was still the best Q1 since 2016.In fact with the release of Q1 result,the total eps of the last rolling 4 qtrs improved to 18.78 sen from the earlier 27 sen because of the improved yoy performance. Many IB forcasted more than 1.1 billion revenues for this year and next year. With 156 million revenue in Q1, it means that we can expect a total of 1 billion revenue for the next 3 qtrs. Despite a seasonaly bad qtr, dayang still churn out 87 million nett cash. Hence we can expect at least a 100 million nett cash per qtr for the next 3 qtrs if the respective revenue is more than 300 million.

3i，can you point out which part of his analysis is wrong. With Q1 2019 result published yesterday,the 4 qtr rolling eps is 18.78 sen and PE of 4.9 with current share price of 91 sen. What he stated in his analysis are all facts. You should not use the market pricing which can swing up and down to say that he is so wrong. Mr markets are filled with emotions . The market can swing +and -50% without any change in the fundamentals.

Mazlee is worst than BN ministers. He talked with no brain and full of lies.He seems to be be blind in seeing what is actually happening in the job markets .He assume all Malays are poor and all non Malays are rich. He talk like an IDIOT.

Both penergy and perdana had improved yoy revenue in their respective Q1 result. penergy had 68% improvement in its revenue while perdana had 50% improvement.We expect at least a 50% improvement for dayang yoy revenue too .This will mean a revenue of 222 million which is the same as last year Q2 result. There will be some additional booking of revenue for work done in q4. I expect the revenue to be be more than 222 million.With such revenue I expect the eps to be better than q2 last year. I also expect some foreign exchange gain.

kcc, I do hope dayang will.perform the same.way as airasia, inari or.mfcb .after private private placement.

airasia's debt was about 11 billion when Tony took the private placement. The proceed of 1 billion pp was used to pay off its nett.debt.of 9 billion. I bought some airasia shares during.that period.at 1.80 seeing the confidence the.CEO had with the company .The share.price.went up.north after that when airasia performance improved . I sold the shares.when it doubled.

Heavenly punter,totally agreed with you. Mazlee is not fit to be an educator let alone education minister.

Mazlee should be sacked as education minister. He is encouraging borrowers to escape accountability. He is not fit to be an education minister. What message is he sending to our.future generation?

With the 4 dividend payments of 12 sen each plus.a special dividend of 40 sen since the private placement , Tony of Airasia would have made almost 1 billion if he were to sell all the private placement at 2.70 which was the price 2 weeks ago. Tony was really smart to time his private placement at the right time. Dayang should time its placement for"" its other investors' when the company can deliver its best results which should be after announcing its q3 result. I supposed dayang is planning for that in DEC 2019 after q3 result is announced in end Nov

Airasia had a private placement in 2016 where its CEO borrowed 1 billion ringgit to purchase the shares at 1.80. Since then the share prices went up to the peak of 4.66 before it came down to less than 3 due to poor Q4 result due to high oil prices. At the end of the days, it is the company performance which will.dictate the share prices.

KCC, 6.3 % gain within 4 months is considered impressive .What is most important is consistency for long period of time. There were many who made 200% within a few years but lost 80 to 90 % finally. The good examples were the 1998 and 2008 financial crisis. Many look down upon the mere 6.3 % gain within 4 months. The 6.3 % was equivalnt to 18 % per annum. Using the power of 72 ,the capital will be doubled in 4 years. For a period of 20 years,the cumulative return is 32x . I rememered commenting in one of your article that I started with RM 170k in 1998 and made an average of 18 % per annum by adhering consistently on FA for stock selection. My stocks selected were fundamentally sound stocks like public bank,supermx,inari,elsoft ,uchitech,penta,wct,mfcb,tongher,kossan and dayang .Although it is a mere 18% p.a return,the 170k had turned into 5.44 million in 20 years with the 8 wonder of the world and the power of 72. JAKs and Sendai will never meet my stock selection rules.

Mazlee is the worst education minister who is trying to justify the lopsided university entrance.policy.without regards to the needy Chinese and Indians who cant afford to go to the expensive private universities despite the fact that their parents pay the.most taxes to fund.these universities

Browsing at the comments , I find it strange that why majority of investors are so fearful of Dayang Right Issues .There were many companies like Inari, MFCB , MKH etc offered right issues with great discounts . The share prices may get adjusted proportionately after the exdate depending on the discounted offered price plus what is the fraction of shares offered with respect to how many shares you own. After that , it depends on the company earning performance plus the " emotions " of the Mr Market . Inari and MFCB saw their stock prices went up gradually to more than 50 % after RI . With the free warrants , the gain is much higher compared with before RI . The investors should look at RI as "interest free loans " . Dayang will use up RM 70 million of the RM 77 million from RI to repay its debts and save RM 6.6 million interest cost per annum . The private placement offered to other investors will raise another 110 million . Both offer has a net discount of 3.9 % .

Another 5 days dayang will hold its AGM. One of the agenda is to get mandate for share buy back. We can make 2 conclusions from this proposal. First the company had sufficient cash to buy back its share. Second,the.company is confident of its oen shares and is under value.

teoct ,very good analysis .You have done a lot of homework on dayang business. The 2019 estimate of 970 million revenue is on the conservative side. FY 2018 Dayang already hit 935 million. My estimate is 1.1 billion with eps of.about 25 sen.

When we analyse a stock,we usually look at the last 5 years proven record and then look at what is the potential future 5 years projected earnings.Dayang generated a total of 1.2 billion cash or 25 sen per share for the last 5 years despite the fact these were the worst years for oil and gas industry. With greater synergy and strong 3 billion order book, IB projected more than 1.1 billion revenue per year for the.next 3 years.We.expect.dayang to generate more cash than the past years with the higher projected revenues.

Titus , the two articles in i3 are as follows

1. My Analysis on dayang by David dated 5th April
2. THe cash tales of two contracting companies Sendai and dayang by KCC

Both articles anaylsed the FCF of dayang and its fast rate of debt reduction .

Talking about Mans Fund , a friend of mine sold the Australian's Mans Fund to me about 10 to 12 years ago promising double digit returns . He claimed that the Fund Manager had some sort of advanced computer software programs which can do a good technical analysis when to buy and when to sell stocks. The returns after 5 years was disastrous and miserable of less than 5 % .This fund is not a long term stock investor based on FA but more like a trader using TA . The US imposition of tariff on CHina may have make them switching for other badly beaten stocks which they think can offer better return.

Both articles from Davidtslim and KCChong provided a detailed analysis of Nett Cash Generation for the last 3 to 5 years . The average nett cash generated per year from 2014 to 2018 was 237 million . THis is equivalent to 25 sen cash per share although the average eps on the book was only 10 sen per year . The paper loss was mainly due to impairment loss from the acquisistion of Perdana . Last year alone , Dayang generated almost 300 million cash which is more than 30 sen per share although eps on the book is only 17 sen .Dayang has been able to pay off a total of 700 million debt for the last 3 years . With the recovery of oil prices plus strong order book of 3 billion , 2019 is expected to generate more cash than 2018. THe management has committed to further improve the balance sheet with the strong order book which will last till 2023 .

KYY 's Golden Rule is just too simplistic in stock selection. I prefer Coldeye 's Rule in Stock Selection.