bought some just now at .375, should have queued at 0.37, sigh!

iconquer, my apology if I have misled you. However, all the while, I have focused mainly on the balance sheet and if water deal can be completed (a HUGE concern back then before Selangor state government paid the money.) I am right with the water deal completion despite many said deal won't go through, and I believe my analysis on the balance sheet is right too, i.e., net cash per share should be around 2.70 post special dividend. I don't understand why share price won't perform, and I have more than 60% of my portfolio invested in Puncak (I didn't invest my special dividend on Puncak, thus lowering the %, which earlier is more than 90%.)

The profit is actually a bit disappointing to me. Despite the land disposal, the debt level is only slightly less than last quarter but much higher compared to same quarter last year. Hopefully, the China project can be disposed swiftly to further reduce its debt level while completion of Ritz-Carlton Residence can improve its profitability while further lower its debt level...

The depreciating RM has made the debt looks much bigger. As an example, the USD debt, compared to same quarter last year, has only increased by 11.9 million USD, but the RM equivalent has increased by 233.7 millions. Hopefully, RM will strengthen towards the end of 2016...

err... I was kind of hoping for something between 8 - 12

jacklintan, I am not invested as much in PetronM and BJCorp as in Puncak, so I didn't go through as much in fine details in them as I did to Puncak. Probably you should find some analyst report to read if you like details while dig further using those reports as basis. Well, at least that's how I did... And I bought PetronM in panic cause I have been waiting to buy PetronM at 4.30-4.34 level due to delay in collecting my Puncak special dividend, and it suddenly spike today, causing me to chase higher after receiving mine this afternoon after 2:30pm, sigh!

jacklintan,

BJCorp at multi-year low, been aggressively selling assets/companies lately with visible profits from investment recognized this and next quarter reports (this coming quarter report, recognition from selling land, next quarter report from selling china business), property project disposal (if successful, should help pare down debt further, but no confirmation given earlier failure to sell,) property project completing soon that should free up cash (menara Bangkok bank completed, Ritz Carlton Residence of over 1 billion GDV to be completed soon - hopefully before May 2016?, Japan's to be completed also before May 2016?). Though, most likely won't hold long term on this stock, boss is bad, number forecasting is on a downtrend, property project in Jeju Island seems to be in trouble, highly goreng stock...

PetronM, the company seems to enjoy greatly from low crude oil price despite revaluation loss on inventory. It has made 0.75 in the past 9 months, should make another 0.25-0.30 when result is out this coming February (my guess, never really goes into detail estimation.) Debt has been pared down significantly, something I like. Current gasoline price adjustment at end of month seems to help PetronM in planning ahead on cost structure. I believe crude oil should trade at low level at least until June (I mean below 60, best if kept below 50 until year end) and should help PetronM business.

Hopefully, I can make some decent profits from these two before switching back to add more Puncak around April should Puncak remains around 1.50-1.70 level. Prefer not adding till I am clear with coming quarter report, but won't sell my current holding, guess has confidence with my valuation.

On board Petron today, albeit at a higher than hoped for price, sigh!

bought back what I sold earlier at 0.385 today... hopefully the coming quarter result will be good and offer a rally till Chinese New Year.

roger, its ok, I won't sell my Puncak holding anyway and shall wait another 2-5 months, after quarterly report and annual meeting...

dare not add more Puncak, used my special dividend to buy BJCorp and PetronM instead.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2016 to all!

roger, indeed... I have thought that Puncak share price will track its cash position and believed that the water deal will be sealed eventually. I was right the second half but not the first half... Hopefully Rozali will spend wisely (best if he would allocate 200 millions for share buyback) to offer long term investors like me a good return for holding.

Titus, I derive my cash per share estimate based on the latest quarter report. You could read my earlier posting and reconfirm with the announced quarter report. You may also double confirm through the Puncak investor relations which I haven't done...

as to why's the share price fail to reflect its cash in hand, frankly, I have totally no idea. While I am not certain if I should add more once I have received my special dividend now, I sure would not sell what I have currently at this absurd price and would rather wait until Rozali reveal his plan on Puncak.

muttoncurry, it's not the business that's worth celebrating, it's Puncak net cash of 2.77 per share that's making Puncak looks so cheap...

Might as well share buy back using 200 mil. It's basically using RM 1.53 to buy RM 2.77 of cash + RM 1.20 of land

No money, sigh. Will be able to buy once receive my special dividend, another week. Nothing to do but wait...

But one thing for sure, Rozali is not very transparent or fair. 1. He didn't reveal the sukuk will be redeemed earlier. 2. He had yet to offer his business plan after the asset disposal, given changes in market environment. 3. He had yet to suggest if he would buy back shares given it's ridiculous price compared to what it's worth

Benblurblur, no idea if the 53 million income is recurring or not. No idea if Kuala Selangor land could be fully developed. I have assumed the valuation of it's Kuala Selangor land based on Ecoworld venturing into that area too. It's an open question if Rozali will and can abuse the remaining cash. Our governance is better compared to 10 years ago, but there's a will, there's a way. I can only hope Rozali is a fair owner, given his willingness to share the special dividend...

Stockraider, I agree with your reasoning if analysts first STATED cash in hand post disposal, special dividend & redemption is RM 2.77 plus net long term asset of approximately RM 1.00 per share. Then, suggest a 60% discount to it's valuation is JUSTIFIABLE. I would be OK with that analysis then. My point is analysts have failed to offer fair and accountable analysis...

What 53 million? If I were not wrong, Puncak investment in o&g is vessel support, don't think they are involved in other way. A more accurate picture is offered in the annual report, please go through ...

benblurblur, err.. not sure how the other analysts got the number wrong. I wrote in to CIMB and I was given a revised figure without taking into consideration that a sukuk converted into shares will result in a debt reduction (irrelevant now given sukuk has been bought back.) Despite errors made in his response, I was only told that 'depending on how its interpreted' (which is why I assume he has got the number wrong.)

Affin once suggested cash proceed for the water asset disposal is 2.91. Though, the number is highly misleading. Affin assumed the cash proceed of 1555.3 million is divided by an enlarged share base, i.e., 534 million shares. The valuation is raw and misleading too. First, the enlarged share base will result in additional fresh fund of 40 million from warrant conversion proceed and debt reduction of 160 million (or 141 million from balance sheet's perspective - converted sukuk has 2 components, debt portion and equity portion.) Second, the write up has failed to recognize the 392 million cash it has on its balance sheet (there's another short term investment of 11 million that's also ignored.)

All analysts pointed towards uncertainties in future business prospect. Well, I can't deny that. Though, based on its 9 month result, you would have realized that the losses from operation is only 6.16 millions, the rest are financial cost of 12.12 millions (cost of borrowing that's insignificant once sukuk is bought back and in net cash position,) depreciation and amortization of 14.51 millions (that's basically write down of asset that has no impact on cash flow,) and net taxes of 2.64 millions (or gross taxes of 5 millions). Net cash of 1.25 billions that Puncak is holding right now should generate 37 million interest income a year assuming a saving rate of 3%. I suppose that's more than enough to assume business losses in its o&g business.

Frankly, with a landbank of 280 acres in Kuala Selangor, a property development project of 5 - 10 years is feasible and profitable, beside high cash flow generating (the land is free with 1 - 1.5 million per acre cash value). Property project usually will yield net profit of at least an equivalent of its land value, thus 2 - 3 millions per acre. Assuming the project has a 10 years lifespan, that will generate 56 - 84 millions cash a year on average (28 acres a year x 2 - 3 millions per acre)!

If there's anything that I really worry would be is if Rozali will spend this money wisely, given tough o&g and plantation business environment. Both industries will face a tough time in coming 1 - 4 years, depending on how one interpret the commodity cycle (that would be another debatable analysis.)

I welcome any analysis that would offer me a new perspective.

Benblurblur, click 'show more comments', my valuation on Puncak is dated Dec 04th

stkoay, I have similar feeling and that's why I park my most of my money in Puncak which is supposed to be cash rich and priced at discount to cash. Never realize that it can be this low a discount though...

Ks55, still owning other shares, but margin account money are all tied up by the warrant conversion for special dividend, sigh!

I don't love a particular stock, I am holding because (1) price doesn't even reflect cash position (2) major analyst reports on Puncak have been negative, yet wouldn't offer a fair picture of it's cash position as well as it's land asset.

Had most analyst reports suggested 2.77 cash (or not, but with backup rather than a simply chosen numbers) but price still not performing, I wouldn't mind start looking for better alternatives. Otherwise, I would be a fool to act on TA analysis that could switch without non-TA guys like me realize a reverse trend.

I have always welcome any correction, that's why I have written to CIMB analyst in charge of writing about Puncak. Frankly, would appreciate any expert opinion, so long there's facts behind it

Don't worry, I m holding on... so long the price remains 1.59 or below when I have received my special dividend end of this month, I will add some more, most likely between 10% - 20%.

money888, if net cash is really 2.77, any selling at 40+% below net cash is absurd... If someone is dumping only to collect cheaply, I would be a fool to let them have the fun doing so

pitpit, if my net cash calculation is wrong, please show me the right one, I would appreciate it.

its hard to believe a net cash 2.77 per share company is traded at 1.61/1.62

Eddysurge (1) the increased share base will not be felt in the short term given the ICULS has years to come (3) wonder if BJCorp will record an exceptional item of profit given purchasing BJLand at lower valuation (4) this move actually reduces ownership conflicts, given that VT now owns BJLand through BJCorp (or not?)

I still believe BJCorp share price not performing due to (1) BJLand projects in Vietnam, China, and South Korea are all having some problems of either selling or construction (2) Cosway Hong Kong purchase is too pricey (3) Menara Bangkok Bank project is taking too long to free up capital (finally, its near to completion with the serviced condos.) Hopefully with the land sale and completion of Menara Bangkok Bank, BJCorp's cash flow can be free up to some extent and further relieve be seen after the completion of Japan project 2nd quarter of next year

moomoo12, frankly, I have had difficulty understanding technical analysis. May I know if you base your analysis on day chart? Which indicators that gave you the impression, especially when the special dividend is just ex-date today?

fainted, just realize my emails to Puncak didn't go through at all, wonder if I should call to get an email address...

Roger, I believe I have mentioned before that I am not in the finance industry. I am investing based on my analysis through what's available without 'insider' knowledge, mostly through Bursa that offers facts and search engines for additional information besides forum like this. I believe you had never mentioned Puncak can't pass 3 because share price can't break LTH entry cost to avoid selling (except lots of who knows what you are talking about.) Since I have earlier posted about my analysis and viewpoints about Puncak, I think its only right if I keep doing it so long I am still investing in Puncak. And, still, I believe, post special dividend, not to sell below 2.00 and switch on extremely attractive alternatives @ 2.00 - 2.50, and fair value @ 2.50 - 3.00. The 0.20 difference is mainly due to the success redemption of sukuk without flooding the market with new shares (which would cause a NTA dilution of RM 0.20 per share of Puncak).

Wrote a letter to Puncak's investor relation this morning (an error on valuation, corrected below)

Madam Tan Bee Lian,

Based on the most recent quarter report, I have come to notice that, together with the most recent purchase of redeemable sukuk, the cash position of Puncak is at least RM 2.77 per share (see Appendix for derivation and data). May I know if my estimate of Puncak cash position is correct?

Based on Dec 04 morning's stock quoatation, Puncak is trading at 1.62 - 1.68 range. This is an equivalent of more than 40% discount to the cash that Puncak is holding, not to mention that Puncak has other net non-cash asset. Given situation, I was wondering if the directors and management of Puncak have ever considered buying back share to provide risk-free value-addition to current shareholders, besides calming shareholders' anxiety over shock on what has actually gone wrong with Puncak? Besides, what's the plan of Puncak Niaga going forward, given the dismay Puncak share price pointing towards a distrust on Puncak Niaga's future?

Thank you for your attention.

Yours Truly,

A concerned shareholder of Puncak Niaga

Appendix:
(in thousands)
Current assets
Short-term investments 11,397
Cash and bank balances 392,150
Non-current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 179,850 (of which 141,537 is for convertible sukuk)
Current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 42,717

Based on proceed from water deal of RM 1,554.3 million and current redemption of sukuk at RM 200 millions and assuming RM 33 million from warrant conversion,

the cash of Puncak = 1,554.3 + 11.397 + 392.15 - (179.85 - 141.537) - 42.717 + 33 - 200
before dividend = RM 1,709.817 million

With an outstanding shares of approximately 453 million
the cash of Puncak ex-dividend =1,709.817 - 453
= RM 1,256.817 million

Thus, net cash after taking out debt outstanding = RM 1,256.817/453
= RM 2.77

roger, its hard to communicate with you. I believe in investing in stock market while you believe in gambling in stock market...

amma, if you are buying Puncak, you are buying on the fact that its exiting its Selangor water business and holding cash for future investment. If you don't trust the management of Puncak, surely, you should not buy in the first place. If you are buying, given current share price, probably best you can do is to finding ways to protect your interest, given that Puncak is holding more than 2.80 cash per share, not to mention its still holding to land and other that easily worth another 1.00 per share

roger, what's your problem? I am writing to Puncak as a shareholder seeking verification and learning future prospect of Puncak. I am not MAD, more like hoping Puncak board to consider share buy back to add value to current shareholders given share price is at huge discount to its cash. Frankly, no idea what's wrong between you and hng33, and don't really care. Just hope this could be a place for investors of Puncak to share idea and protect interest.

the said sukuk carries a 3.95% interests and convertible into Puncak shares at 2.00 per share, imagine what would happen if the sukuk holders converted those sukuk into Puncak yesterday at 2.00 per share threw them into the market to liquidate the position in Puncak. Also, the sukuk, once converted into shares, are dilutive in nature, given that NTA per share of Puncak is over RM 4.75 before the conversion while the sukuk's value is only RM 2.00 per share

while net cash in hand will be reduced to about 1.25 billion, given that the warrants are purchased at 200 million while its debt component is only 141.537 million, after special dividend, the net cash per share will rise significantly to RM 2.75! Before ex-dividend, current share price is RM 2.71 but its net cash per share is RM 3.75 before other net asset is considered, what a joke! Hopefully I am right to keep on holding...

an excellent news from Puncak:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4941665

We refer to the Company’s previous announcements dated 17 September 2013 in relation to the Company’s Redeemable Convertible Secured Sukuk Ijarah.

The Board of Directors of PNHB wishes to announce that the Company had on 3 December 2015 fully repurchased all outstanding 5-Year Redeemable Convertible Sukuk Ijarah of RM160.0 million in nominal value (“RCSSI”) of the Company.

The purchase consideration for the RCSSI Repurchase is RM200.0 million only. Following the completion of the RCSSI Repurchase by the Company, the RCSSI had been cancelled accordingly.

For full details of the announcement, please refer to the attached file.

This announcement is dated 3 December 2015.

M&A or identifying new business venture, guess that would be another 6-12 months

thought thong is only selling warrants?!? How could it affect the mother shares?

to me, the deal is cheap, given that the cash portion is little, iculs are only 2% interest, and warrants actually bring additional cash to BJCorp. Problem is there is no telling when BJLand business will recover, so little can be found online. It seems BJLand's oversea venture into Vietnam, China, South Korea, and Japan are all in the mud except for Japan...

same feeling, speechless, but decide to hold on, got money back by end of month to reduce my debt ratio anyway, so should be safe... and frankly, with so many false info about Puncak by so called anal-ysts, how could Puncak perform? Take CIMB analyst for example, coming to conclude a 1.81 per share cash ex-special dividend, a far cry from its minimum of 2.55 per share cash ex-special dividend. Despite my email seeking clarification, the analyst has yet to published any updated report on his 'mistake.'

also, analysts are 'concerned' with 9-months losses of 35.5 millions, what they have failed to mention is: Out of 35.5 million losses, 12.1 millions, or 34% of losses, is due to financing cost. Meanwhile, ex-special dividend, Puncak's net cash is over 1.3 billions!

wonder if BJLAND going to be delisted soon? BJCorp going to control more than 74% soon with the deal. BJLAND's property projects are really in trouble, from Vietname, China to South Korea...

CaoCao, the premium of Puncak's warrant used to be less than 0.10. Even with Puncak trading below 2.00 ex-special dividend, a premium of 0.22 with a maturity date within 2 1/2 years are rather high, well, at least to me (Puncak @ 2.73 and warrant @ 0.95) .

ivan9511, loan stock interests are only for those buying BJCorp loan stock (BJCORP-LD), NOT BJCorp (BJCORP) shares. BJCorp shareholders are only entitled to RM 0.01 per share end of each year for the past 2 years.

sudahkena, frankly, we have yet to know the number of warrants floated on Bursa upon the completion of conversion exercise. If there aren't many left, its easy to corner the market and control the price. Having said that, the reason for a maximum 0.15 per share premium is to account for 2 1/2 years of savings on RM 1 on conversion cost of warrants, nothing much. If Puncak share price responds well towards any business plan unveiled in coming months, it may not be worthwhile to buy warrant at such premiums. Of course, if Puncak share price barely responds for the next 2 1/2 years, surely the 0.15 could be worthwhile given the RM 1 conversion cost could be used for other investments yielding more than 5% return (of course, assuming one can make more than 5% in the market annually)

Received a reply from Rosely of CIMB, and was told net cash per share should be RM 3.15 post special dividend instead after update. Though, reverse engineering using his numbers, I can only come up with RM 2.30 post special dividend. Anyway, I suppose my derivation is a better reflection while still believing that there is a high possibility that quite a significant amount of sukuk will not be converted into shares.

I have written to Rosely of CIMB Research pertaining to his valuation of Puncak:

Dear Mr. Rosely,

I was reading an article dated Nov 24, 2015 on Puncak Niaga Holding Berhad (PNHB) that's written by you. In the article, you have mentioned that PNHB's fully diluted net cash shall be RM 1.81 post special dividend.

Based on the most recent quarter report, the following is what I have found:

(in thousands)
Current assets
Short-term investments 11,397
Cash and bank balances 392,150

Non-current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 179,850 (of which 141,537 is for convertible sukuk)

Current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 42,717

Its my understanding that there are approximately 33 millions warrants that have yet to be converted while the proceeds from selling Selangor water asset should be 1,554.3 millions (of which 1 million has been paid to PNHB.) In addition, the enlarged share base should be 534.554 millions.

Thus, before special dividend and post enlarged share base, I have come the following cash and cash equivalent of PNHB:

1,554.3 + 392.15 + 11.397 - (179.85 - 141.537(converted sukuk)) - 42.717 + 33 (converted warrants) = 1,909.817 millions

(OR, 1,898.42 millions if short-term investments are excluded)

And 1,375.263 millions post special dividend.

(OR, 1,363.866 millions if short-term investments are excluded)

Thus, net cash per share of PNHB shall come to RM 2.57 per share (1,375.263/534.554).

(OR, RM 2.55 per share - 1,363.866/534.554 if short-term investments are excluded)

The above net cash that I have concluded seems far off from what you have come up with. Would you kindly suggest as to where I have omitted or failed to realize?

Hopefully I will have further clarification from Rosely soon. Will let you guys know then.

Ong Lie Chin, glad that I can help.

Something puzzling me yesterday. There are more than 260,000 shares of warrants transacted yesterday, while there are more than 110,000 shares transacted on Monday. Assuming 50% changes hand within the same day or the next day, that would still mean at least 185,000 shares are stranded without the right for special dividends based on the Tricor requirement of receiving forms on the latest Nov 25 5:00 p.m.

Meanwhile, while ex-date is Dec 04, the entitlement date is actually Dec 08, meaning those holding Puncak shares on Dec 08 will still be entitled to special dividend. From past records, it should take 5 - 7 working days for conversion, meaning those holding warrants on Nov 30 (meaning after taking into account of T+3, those bought today should still have a chance for special dividend.)

Anyway, just found the traded warrants yesterday fishy and unfair to small shareholders!