Business
CPO stockpile dips below two million tonne mark
April 13, 2016, Wednesday Ronnie Teo, ronnieteo@theborneopost.com

KUCHING: Malaysia’s palm oil stockpile in March 2016 fell below the two million tonne benchmark for the first time in 12 months, signifying strong exports and high domestic consumption.

TO note, Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s March stockpile fell to 1.89 million tonnes – dropping 13.1 per cent month on month — for the first time after staying above two million tonnes benchmark for 12 months. This beat market expectation of 1.95 million tonnes.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) noted that this was likely caused by the “Super El Nino Impact” which has dried up CPO inventory by 35 per cent or 1.02 million metric tonnes (MT) in a short span of four months.

“Inventory numbers have so far shown only half the power of what a Super El Nino Impact can do,” it detailled in a report yesterday. “It is worth to take note that the current “Super El Nino Impact” has taken away 1.02 million MT of palm oil inventory in a short period of four months.

“Recall that the inventory level was 2.91 million MT in November 2015 and it has now tumbled by 35 per cent to 1.89 million MT. Still, the worse for CPO production is not over as we expect the Super El Nino Impact to live on for another seven months.

“We maintain our view that CPO price should surge to RM3,000 per MT by end-June as inventory is expected to drop to the critical level of 1.50 million MT.”

MIDF Research went on to observe that the “Super El Nino” is dying, but its impact is still young.

“We believe that the market needs to differentiate “Super El Nino” from the “Super El Nino Impact” due to the six-month lagged impact of dry weather on CPO production,” the house explained.

“In our view, the “Super El Nino Impact” has caused March’s production of 1.22 million MT to be 12 per cent below the average of 1.39 million MT for March in the past five years.

“Although the current Super El Nino is expected to weaken soon by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the damage caused by the Super El Nino Impact is only halfway through. The “Super El Nino Impact” has started only from November 2015 and is now in its fifth month.

“As the Super El Nino lasted about from May 2015 to April 2016, the current Super El Nino Impact is still young and we believe that the tree stress impact is likely to continue until October 2016.”

Recall that Australia Bureau of Meteorology officially announced El Nino condition on 12-May-2015 and the current El Nino is rated as one of the strongest in history, it said.

This was on the back of stronger-than-expected rebound in CPO production, added Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research), as March’s CPO production of 1.22 million tonnes which was above market expectation of 1.13 million tonnes.

“CPO production has begun to pick up after the low production season but it was still down 18.4 per cent year on year due to the lagged El Nino impact,” it observed in a separate note.

“Going into 2Q16, we expect production to continue to rise and reach its peak in 3Q16. Besides, recent dry weather in Malaysia especially Sabah could have impact on production in 4Q16.”

HLIB Research expects a gradual pick up in palm oil exports as demand for palm oil would be better post winter season and for preparation of the upcoming Ramadhan festive season in 3Q16.

“However, April 2016’s palm oil exports are likely to be weak as exporters rushed to shipments in March 16 before the resumption of CPO export tax in April 2016,” it highlighted.

“According to Intertek, exports in April 1 to 10 were down by two per cent month on month to 320,990 tonnes. Besides, narrowing discount gap to soybean oil price would prompt price-sensitive countries such as India and Pakistan to switch to soybean oil.

“CPO price is likely to remain high in the current quarter as inventory continues to be drawn down on low production as well as better festive demand in the coming months.

“We maintain neutral on the sector with unchanged CPO price assumption of RM2,400 per tonne for 2016.”



Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/04/13/cpo-stockpile-dips-below-two-million-tonne-mark/#ixzz45fGqzLGt

need push..1.50~1.51 looks stuck...

come back? not easy

once quater result out, one step up...1.80

1.50-1.52 strong support

utures/Months Last Change Vol
FCPO/Jun 2016 2787.00 +17.00 6,148

FCPO/Jul 2016 2774.00 +14.00 2,581

can enter now? low enough?

today closed 1.55....hopefully tomorow can fly

utures/Months Last Change Vol
FCPO/Jun 2016 2773.00 +25.00 17,227

FCPO/Jul 2016 2762.00 +25.00 5,462

but still cannot break 1.55

sangkut 1.55..if can break..soon 1.80

KUCHING (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - The Sarawak Legislative Assembly will be dissolved on April 11 to pave way for the state elections.

Chief Minister Adenan Satem told reporters at a press conference at Wisma Bapa Malaysia that he had met with Governor Tun Taib Mahmud on Thursday morning (31 March), and the governor agreed to dissolve the assembly.

The long-awaited announcement ends days of speculation on when the polls would be called. The chief minister had previously proposed that the state election be held on April 30, reported the Malay Mail.

buy now..next quarter result sure very good

sangkut rm 1.49

today 1.60......

Latest NewsCommodities
Crude palm kernel oil hits five-year high on El Nino concerns
By Reuters / Reuters | March 28, 2016 : 6:43 PM MYT

Translated by Google Translator: Translated by Google Translator:Pilih Bahasa​▼KUALA LUMPUR (March 28): Crude palm kernel oil prices rose to the most in five years on Monday over concerns that lower output could tighten supplies in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm producer.

Assessment prices by Thomson Reuters showed prices reaching 5,406 ringgit (US$1,347) per tonne on Monday, rising by over 20% since the start of the month.

Production of palm kernel oil, like crude palm oil, is taking a hit from a crop damaging El Nino, with some traders estimating output to be lower than usual in March. The El Nino brings scorching heat and drought across Southeast Asia, impacting palm fruit yields in the world's top two growers Malaysia and Indonesia.

"Buyers are buying (palm kernel oil), as there are concerns over further tightness in kernel due to weaker crude palm oil supply," said Ivy Ng, plantations analyst at CIMB Investment Bank.

Rising prices of substitute coconut oil have also led to buyers switching over to kernel oil, said traders in Kuala Lumpur, supporting the surge in price levels.

The El Nino has also impacted the output of coconut oil in the Philippines, the world's top supplier of the commodity, leading to forecasts of an 11% drop in exports this year. This may boost demand for palm oil-based alternatives.

Further price rises could squeeze the margins of oleochemical manufacturers who buy palm kernel oil, as a raw material for use in commercial cooking and the manufacturing of chocolates and cosmetics.

An official at an oleochemicals producer who asked to remain unidentified said his plant had not yet been impacted by the spike in palm kernel oil prices, as they buy forward, but problems would arise if prices keep rising.

"I think this is temporary... But if this lasts for another one to two months then we'll have some problems," he said. "Consumers are not going to buy your oil at this price, they will use alternatives, unless the market completely moves up for all the oils to the next level."

buy before late

i think very soon RM 3000...

today very quite,,,

boss jaya tiasa holiday...

Today Sarawak holiday..today very quite,,,

Palm oil futures are now at RM2,594, near a one-month top of RM2,632 hit on Monday. Last week at an industry meet, experts said they see benchmark prices trading between RM2,700 to RM3,000 by June as dryness linked to El Nino hurts output growth.

rm 4.07...

usd=4.07

good....

supermax, top glove rebound,,,harta still down 20 cent..time to collect

supermax, kossan,top glove all rebound...harta still sleep

cheap cheap......nanti EPF sapu

Harta highest price RM6.10, now RM 4.66,
24% down, price level going back to OCT 2015

soon back to RM1.50 level, CPO price 2500, good for jtiasa

sapu...

today last minute also..EPF wait last minute

last minute shoot up

wat happen? price going down...

EPF keep buying

RM 5 soon, next kossan

start rebound...EPF sapu

EPF start buy...

sliding for us to enter

RM3 soon

back to 4.40 soon, no investor want to come due to corrucption..

EPF
Acquired 22 Feb 2016 207,200

soon rebound

Acquired 10 Feb 2016 648,800
Acquired 11 Feb 2016 47,000
Acquired 16 Feb 2016 28,300

EPF
Price Transacted (RM)
Disposed 17 Feb 2016 120,600
Acquired 18 Feb 2016 1,000,000
Disposed 18 Feb 2016 500,000

4.40...crazy...EPF sure support

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profit 38 m...next week will fly...

monday below 0.85