The equilibrium price of oil is USD45

oip up on memorandum but since opec is a dog eat dog cartel led by Saudi , oil will go down when facts of oversupply comes out . This has happened many times throughout 2016

MYR weakening ? At the moment it has stabilizes. If weaken more , Najib will inflict self-wound for Zahid to take over.

lActually , MAS do not need to set up a new airline to cater pilgrim. It would be an exercise that waste operational cost, double up the staff, plane and offices. They really know to inflict damage to their ownself till bankruptcy.

Oil up based on rumours and memorandum of understanding , once facts of demand and supply come out , oil moves down, Opec and russia are dog eat dog cartel. And they do not include US and Venezuela - 2 biggest supplier of oil. Soon oil price will go back to $45 level.

Steve , spot on... reading Fahmi Jaes comment make me laugh...99% ----- "sell" , "more buy more down", "more patient more down", "warning", "trap warning" , "happy buying more drop" , "engine stop" , "rip" , "down", "run"...

I think he hold stocks - Gadang and Johore Tin ..Those two counters - he gave buy call.

Yes , can short sell provided you sell early morning and buy back in the same day.

Mango juice ... we have to ask the Prime Minister about that . AAX had done its best to ensure operating profit RM 60 million and that is a significant amount. Forex do affect but it does not affect AAX like last year.... Because this year , the variables changes and made AAX and Airasia less vulnerable.

There are two types of people. First, dont have time to read and investigate . Calvin hypnotizing power can affect these people.

There is a second holland King ... Mohd Fahmi Jaes ... he entered once and I looked at his comments in i3.... 99% sell comment. LOL This fellow really know how to make people sell.

Investor needs to differentiate between facts and rumours. Calvin Tan = rumours. Quarter result = fact. Important thing need to do is to compare current year quarter result and last year quarter result.

Last year, currency drops AND AAX reeling from one plane from Indonesia down and MH380 (reduced confidence from China tourist AND high oil price ----> So last year AAX made hugh loss.

This year currency drops BUT tourist confidence starts to brimm AND oil price low ----> So this year, AAX make profit.

Last year and this year facts = result is different. Will AAX price moves down some more ? Very Unlikely. 20% is around 36.0 . Correction almost over.

The recent selldown of AAX is engineered by Calvin Tan and his likeminded group. Many sharks visits i3. When they read what he wrote, some sell their positions. And when the ikan bilis feel threatened , the ikan bilis also sells. Calvin Tan targeted AAX and Airasia. However, Airasia maintains...

David Fickling write up actually a confirmation that Airasia business model is right.

In other airlines, the baggage, ancillarry revenue and others are lumped in ticket price or seat sales. That is why , other airlines get ticket price high and may cover the cost.

But Airasia breakdown Ticket price into several elements - "Seat Price" , "Food Price" , "Baggage Price" and others. Therefore, comparison between AirAsia with other airlines are not orange to orange"

So, if we want to compare Airasia and other airlines, we need to calculate Seat Sales = Ticket Revenue + Food Revenue + Baggage Revenue + Ancillary Revenue

If we do that - then , we get Seat Sales or Ticket Price as profitable.

0.3 is equivalent to more than 30% correction. Normally, correction would be 20% or less.

Buy1Sell2 , just like Calvin Tan ... talk a lot without showing the fundamental. AAX do have problems in Forex. But recent result shows that the problems are taken care well. In 2015, they make loss in these type of not-friendly currency rate, in 2016, they make profit. We know oil price would not go up more.... Oil price goes up on rumours and goes back down on factual news of supply and demand, would be good for AAX.

December is nice time to purchase back AAX. Wait 2-3 weeks before QR4, all the sharks have bought, and you are left with inflated price. My only concern, the recent sell-out may trigger margnin call to those who have margin account.

Looks like time to buy more

Calvin promotes DRB and DRB Q3 loss is RM 300 million. I guess DRB share price should be less than AAX share price which makes profit.

Calvin replies:

Price was Rm2.35 on January 19th 2014. Every year got dividend. MGO is Rm3.52

So 18% per year lah!

6 times Bank FD at 3%.

.......................

Radzi replies :

Why should I follow you if I can make more than 50% a year ? LOL.

As for AAX, price is 20 sen January 2016 and now around 37 sen.

More than 75% profit in less than 1 year time.

2 times Calvin call and shorter time period achieved.

If like Ecommerce, buy POS. Dont like big debt, dont buy DRB. People dont know what to be taken private unless it is Insider Trading. Insider Trading is punishable in Malaysia.

You keep The Store for three years and price now is RM 3.05. So, price gain only around 35%. Divide by 3 - get 10%, if consider compounded rate, only around 8% per year....

Aiyaa.... in this case, keep money in Public Mutual better .... or buy AAX better...Buy AAX around 20 cents , in less than one already 40%. One year - 100% capital gain. Where can get ?

Yeah Calvin you can be bulish at market bottom ... Buy Perisai 5sen. PN17 Market bottom

Nazir Razak , CEO CIMB is now a board member of TF company. Soon, that TO will revise upward

Dont trust calvin because when Q4 result out, IB especially CIMB will revise price upwards..... first year orofit since listing

Calvi gives sell call so that he can buy cheap..... Look airasia price goes up

Some people dont mind if Malaysia Ringgit drops because they have a lot of "investment" in US Dollar, so the more ringgit drop, the more money they will make when exchange USD to MYR.

Palm oil price will move down soon. With oil price goes down, biodiesel project is cancelled. El Nino and La Nina will soon be over. So bye-bye-bye palm oil price. Subsidy is reduced in Malaysia and people will reduce consumption. So, now demand will drop. Oversupply situation while demand reduce. Price will sure go down. So, dont believe in Calvin Tan - he propose but God dispose. You will make loss if you buy palm oil company stock.

Sell plantation stocks. Soon , palm oil supply will flood the market because no more El Nino. Price will move down soon.

Calvin is a liar.

Note 32a) It does not mention debt. It just say capital commitment. Capital commitment will only be debt in the future if the company use debt to purchase the aircraft. Debt is not a necessity in the future. Read Corporate Finance 101, there are many ways to finance capital commitment.

I mean very significant push

I think it will make the push February 2017.

puchasing slowly.... :) and aax-wa too

I am using part of my year end bonus to purchase 1000 alots of AAX share.

Calvin Tan Eng is very much misleading. FUTURE number of planes that will be owned by AAX and Airasia is 200 unit. Out of that 200 , ONLY IN YEAR 2018 , the planes will start to be delivered , one by one , where AAX placed an order of 76 AAX 330Neo-900 , which has 14% more fuel efficiency compared with Malindo and MAS. Currently, AAX has only 29 airplanes.

Since AAX 330 Neo 900 fuel consumption is 14% more efficient that Malindo and MAS, then AAX can either (1) has 14% more profit due to fuel reduction or (2) give 1%-14% lower fare from lower fuel usage and compete heavily with Malindo and MAS in the future.

Calvin Tan Eng is very much misleading. Future number of planes that will be owned by AAX and Airasia is around 200 unit. Out of it , ONLY IN YEAR 2018 , the planes will start to be delivered where AAX placed an order of 76 AAX 330Neo-900 , which has 14% more fuel efficiency compared with Malindo and MAS. Currently, AAX has only 29 airplanes.

Yes, I know.... that is why AAX leasing expense is high. AAX lease from AirAsia.

Strategically, that means he wants to reduce his risk by sharing the profit...

Actually, TF is a genius. He created an airline franchise. You have Malaysia AAX. Then you hold shares in TAAX, Australia AAX, India AAX, Philipines AAX, Japan AAX. So, Malaysia AAX is the master franchisor. What does master franchisor do in this airline business ? Master supplied the planes and the franchisee operates the business. On top of that Master get 50% of profit sharing.

A few days ago, I read Thai AAX wants to fly to Europe. Ever wonder , who will supply or lease the planes to them ? It is the Master franchisor - Malaysia AAX, 85% owned by TF and his co-founders. Genius or not , to me , that is a stroke of genius.

Calvin want to create penny stock crash. Calvin = Jason Soh Chee Wen ?

Why a person like Calvin , lie ? I thought he is a devout christian. Jesus taught you to lie, Calvin ?

Another thing, AAX has made deposit (pre-payment) mounting to $1 billion plus. On top of it, AAX has a cash deposit of $367 million. So, all together, AAX cash asset and deposit is around $1.4 billion. This is enough to cover all current AAX debt if it chose to payback all in one shot.

Calvin is confused. He said that AAX debt is $110 billion. If you care to look at the Balance Sheet, current debt is only $1.1 billion.

When he refers Note 32a, the note simply means commitment for AAX to purchase in the future. Future but not now... How fast in the future ? It is just about 1 or 2 or 3 airplane in a year. Why ? Because Airbus has limitation in its production line. So, why future commitment of $110 billion. OK, now that is a very smart TF move. First, it is an economic of scale. If you purchase more, you get cheaper price because by volume the profit is large. Second, to reduce inflationary pressure. If plane price increase by a few percent a year, in 20 years, the price of the plane would be double.

So now, is $110 billion is a debt at year 2016 or year 2017 ? No, it has not. If AAX has bought all the planes, then the revenue would be $5 billion a year. No plane will sit idle. Either it will increase number of passengers carried by a few hundred percent or it will increase lease revenue.

So, now we see how short thinking a person like Calvin is. If Calvin assume , he just make an ass of u and me.

AAX got 29 planes but 20 are leased. So, can terminate lease agreement anytime if AAX purchase new planes.

AAX actually lease a lot of aircraft , it is better for AAX to buy the aircraft because leasing cost will reduce. And AAX can use depreciation cost to pay for debt.

Calvin does not have any Financial Certification. I think he may also confuse. Normally, when you look about paying debt, people look at Cash Flow and not Profit.

Why ? Because in the Profit statement, the cost of the planes had already factored in by the use of Depreciation.

You have this formula.

Profit Before Tax = Revenue - Operation Cost - Depreciation - Finance Cost - Currency Exchange Loss.

Cashflow = Profit After Tax + Depreciation.

So, frankly, the depreciation cost is converted into cash-in-flow for AAX and is being used to service the debt.

So, what is Profit After Tax actually ? Profit After Tax is actually the amount of money that can be distributed to all shareholders , free from any encumbrances.

Now, AAX current debt is only RM 1 billion at most.

I pity those who gamble on call-warrant...It kill if the big fish pull the plug. To reduce risk and have opportunity of reasonable magnitude to gain money, invest on mother share AAX. It will never expire.

Retailer, buy in volume after the shark has push the price down. Those who already has, and able to hold . just hold and dont give in to shark demand.

Since AAX is buying more planes in the future, more revenue is anticipated. And they paid debt ahead of time, reducing the net gearing very much early. This is a very well managed company. Congratulation AAX. See you at RM 1.00 in January 2016.

Taking 4 continuous quarters (including Q4 2015) , EPS is around 9.6 cents. At P/E Ratio = 7 , Price should be 67 sen. Maximum P/E ratio for risk adverse person is P/E = 13, at that ratio price is RM 1.25. So, I think reasonable price-wise of AAX should be between range of 67 sen - RM 1.25.

AAX is a valued investment. However, some big fish had operated a pump and dump approach in the last two quarters. That is why many are having "wait" and "see" attitude. The increase of USD/MYR is quite a boon to AAX provided that AAX starts it's flight to US via Haneda airport. It neess to capture the American tourist coming to Asia especially for the Olympic 2020 in Japan.