lowwy : Be patient. It takes time for the share to move up. With strong fundamental throughout 2016 , it will definitely move up, bit by bit. What you are seeing is just some ripples, small ripples joined together would be a wave, and if the wave is high enough, you would enjoy surfing.

Market cannot tahan... afternoon open teruk gasak... very hot today !

lala26 : Foreign entities coming in.

Goldenshare : 70kg sek pan coming

actually, i dont smoke... hehehe... i wish i could taste a cigar now...

Sit back and enjoy the game ...... lighting up my cigar.

plaxo 88 : Be patient. buy and hold. When future profit already at the stage where price should be 2.00-2.20 , not much motivation to invest.

I have to be sincere. I have vested interest if AirAsia or AAX or AAX-WA price move uptrend. LOL.

So, they accumulate AA at around 1.44 or 1.43 and AAX at around 25c and 25.5cents.... If that is the case, share price will only go up as long as they are many sellers willing to sell at 25cents and 25.5cents until they achieved their target accumulation volume. If this hypothesis is true. AAX game will be big in term of return.

Of course big fund will push AirAsia first. If AirAsia moves up, soon AAX will follow. In term of percentage, AA gives lower return for the same absolute amount of share price increased compared to AAX.

I also want 70kg sek pan..... where to get ? hehehehe

yongch sounds like a representative of stockbroking company ... He make money whenever people buy or sell... hahahaha

yongch : you playing devil advocate ? Hahahahaha

those contra players in Friday just want to profit it fast. BTW, What is "sek pan" ?

Share price movement is independent from financial result, it could be slow because of human psychology and emotions in it.... But for long term investor like me, I just sit back and enjoy it.

That may be the reason why forex gain is above my expectation.

Forex include trade payable and debt and etc.... not easy to calculate it because they dont segment it in detail. But Benyamin had done a better job. He not only hedges oil price but also hedges the currency for tickets sold in USD/Australian Dollar such that the benefits of previous higher price of ticket (converted to MYR) is maintained even though MYR appreciated.... So - two thumbs up for them.

What I like about AAX is that even though it made hundred million of losses in profit and loss statement in FY2015, but it made positive cashflow from operation activities in the cash flow statement by 4 million. That is a very-very-very good sign.

Profit and loss statement is always clouded by depreciation, unrealised loss or gain , and etc.. etc... but cash flow statement is a pure genuine indicator whether a company is in good condition or in trouble.

OrangKuat : Obviously AAX uses spot rate forex. Q3 - spot rate forex 4.39 , Q4 - spot rate forex 4.29 - that is gain.

One thing good from cash flow statement is that positive cash-flow is generated from operating activities. (before minus interest paid) at around RM 70 million. Interest paid is still huge at RM 89 million, still after adjusting interest, cash in-flow from operating activities is + 4 million. If AAX could reduce the interest by using the rights proceed , then it would be better for future cashflow. Investors would not be shocked by rights issue again in the future.

I would expect the lessor was AirAsia or TF ?

Just rechecked...other income due to gain from selling property, plant and equipment is just RM 2 mill.

does that suggest aax sells aircraft and lease it back ?

Csengc61: If you could run least square regression between Other income and number of passengers in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, you may find if other income could be explained by the number of passengers. That will explain why other income is minimal in Q1,Q2, Q3 compared to Q4. There are two events - Dec 2014 - AAX plane crashed - would definitely affect Q1 and Q2 passenger numbers and around June 2014 - some trouble with Indonesia legislation that forced the travel agents not to promote AA that affect the passengers number again.

I would suggest TF sell his football club - QPR. He will have less headache and lives comfortably with only AirAsia and AAX.

Cash is healthy, no more right issue foreseen in 2016. I think this company would do great in 2016. Cheers !

When I read the financial statement , my main concern are only the lease cost and maintenance cost increases almost 1 fold. Maintenance, for safety reason would be alright but lease cost some how need to be controlled.

The other reason why it happens 2-3 years ago , is because the "ancillary service" terms were introduced three years ago. Before that, everything is lumped in revenue section. But they re-organized their revenue segments such that , they could categorize the revenue and cost structure of every segment, and strategize them as competitive as possible against other airline. Just my 2cents statement.

csengc61 : i know.... but "other income" actually reduced by RM 64 million compared with Q4 214 (RM 160 million).

Other income is related to plane cancellation, meals, extra baggage, insurance and other services. Since, we know that the number of passengers (traffic volume) reduced , then logically other income will reduce comparing Q4 2014 with Q4 2015, assuming the proportion of passengers who cancelled out the flight remains constant , ceteris paribus. If you run some correlation coefficient studies and regressions, you would find that they are strongly correlated.

Well, that is the whole Airasia business model. That is why their motto is everyone can fly. Some fly light and some fly heavy.

If Tiger Airways does not give any dividend, then it does not share any profit with anybody.

The only reason possible TF may make it private is because someone could hijack his company. Buy all the warrants , convert it to mother share and at the same time buy the mother share, get more shareholding percentage than the current shareholder, force an Emergency General Meeting. By virtue of having more percentage, you can vote for the Directors on Board, vote the CEO and COO... Kewl right..

I dont have the capacity to do that and so are other ikan bilis investor in this website.

From corporate finance point of view, there is only 5% probability TF will take it private because TF net worth / wealth will increase tremendously over time as long as the stock is floated on the stock market.

If AAX gives dividend to share-holder, then he will take it private to maximize his return. On the contrary , since AAX does not give any dividend to shareholder, there is no real motivation to take it private.

why do you think he will take AAX private ?

yifie_911 , statistically, AAX should make better profit in Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4 2016 year on year, perhaps the net profit could pay-off the entire RM 1.3 billion debt aax is having. Of course, a prudent business man wont pay off his debt, as the profit could be channeled to increase asset and increase return on equity.

penalty for cancelling flight ticket or penalty for changing the dates of the tickets and etc.... I would suggest that is a big amount because aax ticket is sold many months in advance and within that period some people may had overlooked their other program.

Icon8888 and Yongch maybe related to remisiers or share investment company. They make a lot of money when people panic sell and people panic buy. See who the devils are.

goldenshares : ya, need to read the prospectus why contradictory forex statement. I would think AirAsia may have loaned some money to Indonesia Air Asia or what so ever and some how , MYR appreciates and there is forex loss associated to it.

Learner 1234 : Result and movement are mutually independent and exclusive. Movement is based on psychology of buyers and sellers. Psychology is something very hard to explain.

Depends...I think it is still safe (in term of aax profit) to keep till Mei 2017. After Mei 2017, you need to look at the situations and do other computations based on changes in the competitive environment, revenue and cost structure , etc. etc .... It may be better or may be worst .

They would goldenshare ... I want to read about their segments. We know the problem for them to expand in India, and the problem in Thailand - { Korea, Japan } route , and hope Indonesia problem had been solved. If these problems are solved, then 2017 would be easier for growth. Else, they need to make a start-up in other countries such as Vietnam and etc. For start-up, we have to allow 2-3 years of losses before profit in the 3rd or 4th year.

OK. We are ikan bilis. We could fall to the the games of the big fund and syndicates because we do not know why they sell. So, in order for us not to fall, we have to work 3x harder in finding more information to support our decision.

Greatful, some big fund like EPF sold before result because profit taking. They bought 13.5 million shares of airasia at 1.35-1.37 and sold 1 million at 1.44.

lowwy : Dont worry about 2016. 2016 is a given away bonus. I am concern about 2017 - that is hardwork of growth.

I invest big this time around. Because this is the company which I really studied its historical financial result since year 2014. I am lucky to find the time to read and analyse aax. Sometimes, we have to trust our analysis, and when others sell, put our faith in God. That is the secret not to be influenced by panic sellers. Why there is panic sellers today ? EPF sold it's shares by 1million. So many speculates about it and follow suit. Obviously EPF sold with a profit as they bought at 1.35-1.37 and sold at around 1.44. But pity those who were influenced by that move....

Previously, I had a strong belief that AAX will show a positive profit after tax of around RM 200 million if forex recover by 50%. In the last quarter MYR actually appreciate by ballparkfigure 10%, and PAT is RM 151 million - Thanks to lower fuel cost. If forex recovers by 50% within the same scenario in Q1 or Q2 2016 - then I would believe that PAT ballpark figure would be around RM 400million - RM 500 million. Would be great result for AAX this 2016.

I was so busy today that I missed the boat to buy more aax shares today .. It went down to 22.5cents at one point of time ! I pity those who sold their shares with a loss. Congratulate those who sold the share with profit and welcome to those who bought the shares with the same dream as mine. See you aax at RM 1.00 !! , Right JJChan and others - your dream is my dream.

lowwy :let me answer before JJChan, if it fails to breakeven, I will compare between Q4 result and Q3 ; if Q4 result shown improvement compared to Q3, then for me I will hold the shares. Operational wise, AAX started New Delhi flight this Q with 90% load factor, and would start Gold Coast NZ route this Q, that would be an operating betterment,

Secondly, the probability of RM to go worse in Q12016.is small, compared to probability of RM go worse in Q3 and Q4 2015.

Tomm : It is highly possible that Q4 operating profit is green, I have 90% confidence level about it. And I hope Q4 PAT would be green too (after minus finance cost + forex loss/hedge).

In long run, it is a near definite conclusion that 2016 would be very green. So to maximize profit on this stock, need to be long. So, 2016 would be the year AAX share price recovers.

Buyer rate is 80 % today :)) I would buy more AAX shares tomorrow.

rizerlee :

At lower plane utilization, aax could still make more money when the loss associated with flying a plane is reduced (variable cost > amortization cost + loss revenue) and the airline managed to increase the revenue portion from other flights to cover the fixed cost of that unused plane.

This has been successfully done by AAX. Remember AAX reported a lower carried passenger but higher revenue compared between first 3Q of 2015 and first 3Q 2014.

Comparing First 3Q2015 with first 3Q2014, AAX had increased revenue by approx RM 100 and at the same time reduced fuel cost by approx RM 400 million.

That is how I see finance from the engineering side - financial engineering.