Somebody trying very hard to defend RM7.20, hehehe!!

Good morning everyone! By now I am almost definitely correct that it is a down & down (more) play..... going to break below RM7.00 soon.

Tomorrow we will know whether it is up down up play or down down play.... at the moment it looks more like a down down (more) play.

Today AA very good show..... closed green amidst sea of red. Telor no goyang & no kecut.... hehehe!!

Closed lower 11 sen on higher volume (double yesterday's volume).... not good signal.

Tomorrow may break below RM7.00 !!

Sell down accelerating!!

PCHEM struggling to maintain RM7.30+ with very low volume (2 million)..... looks like the QR is not doing a convincing job.

Wah! Today the tongkat Ali boleh tahan the whole day leh..... very good!!

Have a nice long weekend (3 days) holiday!

The current technical rebound is a very weak one (RM7.20 to RM7.40 with daily volume less than 3 million) plus there is a QR coming out very soon (expecting to perform not so well). Compare it with the technical rebound from the beginning of June to the end of June (one whole month).... from RM8.25 to RM8.75 with daily volume around 6 million.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/list-of-companies/plc-profile.html?stock_code=5183

There's a big difference between market crash and the market slowly drifting from a correction into a bear market..... their behavior are different (the slowly drifting one is harder to detect).

Hari ini ada tongkat Ali kah? Boleh tahan naik berapa jam? Harap boleh naik sampai petang la.

@enigmatic, 3 months ago the US-China Trade War was not that intense & the KLCI rebounded from a 12.5% correction.... so, many people were willing to buy PCHEM to ride the rebound (PCHEM also rebounded with EPF continuous buying then).

The current situation is very different. The US-China Trade War has escalated into Currency War. The KLCI has fallen back to a 12.16% correction looking likely to fall further in the next 3 months (turning into a bear market). PCHEM has fallen to EPF's TP of RM7.20 and with so many bad news about the petrochemical industry, it looks likely to fall below RM7.00 especially when the QR (coming out soon this month) show a dramatic drop in profit.

But if u haven't bought any PCHEM shares b4, it is worth gambling a bit by buying a small quantity of PCHEM shares now and buy more (or sell off) later after the QR is out.

I think it may just languish around RM7.20 +/- until the QR out, after that it may drop further (if according to what is expected.... unless there is a good surprise).

My view today is same as yesterday..... no rush to buy & no panic either. The real threat now is market risk (that the current correction could turn into a bear market). If the KLCI drop another 8% then AA drop to RM1.50 is a possibility but if the KLCI rebound from here (i.e. if the bear market will not happen within this month) then buying at currently low prices will pay off handsomely. So I bought some AA but never all in at this stage (a bit risky because of overall market). Good luck everyone!

Wah! RM7.26 now!! Really going to drop to RM7.20 either today or tomorrow.

Aiya.... say what u want la, don't want to buy don't buy la, want to sell then sell all your shares la, those who want to keep & bear their own risk let them keep la.... only they themselves know what is best for themselves la.

Nothing wrong with leaseback costing more than servicing the loan. If AA own those airplanes then they not only have to service the loan, they also incur depreciation & maintenance cost.

No need to rush to buy (can buy a bit) & no need to panic either. I always space out my averaging to include a reasonably lowest possible price.

I think i3lurker is overdoing it now.... while there is some truth in what he said, just remember he is a short seller.

Oil price is not high, crude oil now only USD57.93 (last time when high was USD70 to USD100+).
Forfeit bank credit card charge is doing the right thing (will lower price for customer & retain loyal customer, improve AA brand image, increase sales & market share).

Won't -30%.... at RM1.94, dividend yield is already 6.19% & P/E ratio is 3.79! If price -30%, then dividend yield will be more than 10% & P/E ratio will be less than 2.5 (these will become too attractive for investors & bank IBs will buy up all the shares)!!


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truly: caput aaaa... high oil price and forfeit bank credit card charge..
waiting another -30%
01/08/2019 5:00 PM
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Hahaha!! @Ester1.

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Aug 1, 2019 9:32 AM | Report Abuse
Posted by newinvestor17:

Btw, where is BJ ? Clearly shows that the owner of the account Betkaukau, Jaya, Abilakh etc are all run by one person.
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Hari ini pecah bumbung above RM2.00!

Wah! another inspirational youtube.... thanks again paktua73. Yes, indeed.... failure is not an option for retirees & older people like me. Be prepared for bad things that try to make us fail & lose everything! never quit at the last moment!

Hehehe.... paktua73, thanks for the youtube song "Legends Never Die"! Nice one.

Those 3 IBs may start buying back shares tomorrow to reload for future call warrants (hope so).

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JN88: Wow maybank, Macquarie, CIMB....three fun managers pressing the price....
31/07/2019 5:09 PM
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Today I watch the show only.... no buy & no sell. If tomorrow drop below RM1.95 then I may consider topping up.

That's what make the show exciting!

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Skykiller: damn fast up n down
31/07/2019 3:37 PM
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@DragonEyes, portfolio adjustment of big fund managers.

Today & tomorrow (last day of July & 1st day of Aug) very exciting show..... must watch!!

Hahaha! That big shark must be paktua73! ^^

@i3lurker, maybe forced to sell (margin call).... that's y drop so much.

Looks like it is dong dong all the way down to RM7.20!!

Hehehe.... sharonchok, u r a fast learner.

To be 100% safe from market risk in case of recession or bear market, we can sell all our stocks & put the money into fixed deposits (FD) but FD interest rate is around 3 % p.a. or lower. At RM2.03, AA's dividend yield (excluding special dividend) is around 6 % p.a. (this is just too tempting.... it's about double of what u can get from FD).

Agree with bursatrader2018.... market risk is a real threat for investors when our KLCI is currently in correction mode (could slide into a bear market.... but not yet for now). If this market correction turns into a bear market then even spreading your investments into a few different stocks will not save u from huge loss (unless u quickly liquidate your various investments & hold more cash than shares). Holding stocks with P/E ratio lower than 13 (or lower than 10 if want to be safer) is a safe bet during recession or bear market. AA's P/E ratio is 3.43 (where can u find such low P/E ratio in Bursa?).... please share with me any other stock with P/E ratio lower than 5.

Knowing TF, he isn't giving away processing fees for free.... he is aiming for increasing market share, increasing sales volume (lowering operational cost) & retaining regular customers through BigPay.

BTW @bursatrader2018, when it closed at RM2.03 on 29 July.... that was not a sudden downtrend. As I have explained earlier, RM2.03 = RM2.93 (if u add the 90 sen special dividend)... so it actually shot up from RM2.85 (on 26 July) to RM2.93 (on 29 July).

Talking about technical chart (TA), AA's 14 days RSI is now 7.8 % .....clearly oversold now! Well, the price may drop another few cents or it may shoot up another 10 cents tomorrow (nobody really knows what will happen) but if we can hold on or average down if it drops further.... then the chances of winning are higher (again, no guarantee given for my advise.... bear your own risk).

@bursatrader2018, it depends on what time-frame chart u r looking at. If u only look at the past 3 weeks chart then yes, it was trending down because IBs were pressing down the price b4 ex-date. But if u look at the past 3 months chart then it formed something like a "staircase uptrend" (up 1 month, down 1 month, up 1 month, down 1 month.... each stair higher than the previous stair.

Public Bank analyst gave ex-special dividend TP of RM2.33 which I think is a reasonably achievable TP (probably within a few weeks..... my guess is within 2 or 3 weeks).... again, no guarantee given (bear your own risk).

RM2.03 is definitely a good entry price! Based on past ex-special dividend trend... AA's price usually trended up. Of course, I give no guarantee now..... buy at your own risk. Good luck!

@Min Kuan Lau, If that "idiot" bought at RM2.85 on 26 July & sold at RM2.03 on 29 July, he actually gained RM0.08 in one trading day because he gets RM2.03 on 29 July & will get cash refund (special dividend) of RM0.90 on 29 Aug (i.e. he gets total RM2.93). RM2.93 minus RM2.85 = RM0.08 profit, i.e. 2.8% profit in one trading day (not bad!). Actually that "idiot" usually earns more than RM0.08 if he could sell at somewhere near to RM2.15 on 29 July (he actually earned between RM0.08 to RM0.20). That "idiot" could earn up to 7% profit if he could sell at RM2.15 (high on 29 July). That's y there were so many "idiots" asking people to sell b4 ex-date so that the price could fall as low as possible for them to buy b4 ex-date. They asked people to sell b4 ex-date but they buy from people b4 ex-date. Then they asked people to buy on/after ex-date (to chase up the price) so that they can sell at high prices on/after ex-date. So who are the real "idiots"?

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Min Kuan Lau: Cendol drop too much la... Who the idiot selling so cheap...
30/07/2019 11:53 AM
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I checked Bursa's announcement website & it stated:

1. DISPOSAL OF 23,000,000 SHARES BY CITIGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD - EPF BOARD
2. ACQUISITION OF 20,000,000 SHARES BY CITIGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD - EPF BOARD (AFFIN HWANG-SBL)

So it was clearly a left-hand to right hand strategy partly over the counter trades & partly in open market trades resulting in huge price drop on 24 July.... so technically, EPF did not lose money even when the price dropped 19 sen on that day.

Wah!! If really drop to RM4.10 then Philip go bankrupt loh. Hehehe.... that will be an extremely good price to sailang all in!

Look at EPF's action on 24 July: sold 23 million shares around RM7.66 & bought back 20 million shares around RM7.51 ......immediate cash profit of at least RM3 million in one day. Retailers collectively lost more than RM3 million on that day.

What super sale or ultra sale lah..... the important thing is the closing price.... is it lower than RM1.95? No leh.... then got chance to move higher on Wednesday loh.

At RM2.04, dividend yield is 5.88% (better than FD) and P/E ratio is 3.98 (how much lower can it go? ..... this may be the lowest P/E in Bursa). Those who understand FA will buy & keep.

Hahaha!! .....i3lurker, I don't rush to buy or to sell. Rush to buy sometimes can get trap & rush to sell often due to panic will usually lead to regret.

A lot of jokers here trying to confuse people to sell/buy at the wrong time, especially Betkaukau.


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Betkaukau: Next week 1.90, next few months 1.50. Apa mau jual lagi?
24/07/2019 5:36 PM


Betkaukau: Let’s wait 1.50. Everyone can buy...
26/07/2019 10:34 AM


Betkaukau Monday sure many many lelong underwear. Come wednesday, lelong bulu...
26/07/2019 4:52 PM


Betkaukau Monday going to be bad day for IB keep pressing the price...
26/07/2019 5:00 PM
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