TP must b given with a time frame like within next 3 months or next week, etc. otherwise it is useless. Without a specific time frame, a TP of RM12 will always b correct, e.g. if the price drop to RM8 next week but then slowly rise to RM12 by next year then we can't say that it is wrong when it drop to RM8.

EPF is doing the right thing. When the price of a stock is too high, they will sell it down to a more reasonable price. When EPF sells many different counters at the same time, they r actually doing it to reduce their market risk ahead of ..... whatever u want to call it ---> recession or market crash, etc. No need to agree with me.... stick to your own strategy is the best (unless u r beginning to doubt your own strategy).

The only problem with this bond is whether they can sell all of the bond or not, especially when it is giving an interest rate (at 2%) lower than the USD 5 years treasury rate of 2.51%.

Philip, thanks for your explanation. Good for u too.... since u r looking to buy high grade bonds.

Hehehe.... hope your prayer get answered; can buy after the price fall lower.

Yes, EPF still continue disposing a few million shares every other day.... boh chow cccc aaaa!

Yeah, EPF sold another 3 million shares on 18 Feb 2019 & KWAP also ceased to b substantial shareholder..... looks like going down further tomorrow.

EPF started selling 2 million shares on 15 Feb 2019 ....this may put a stop to the recent uptrend (especially if EPF continue selling).

Yesterday's RM5.21 seem to b the peak price when the RSI was 78% (overbought or overpriced). Today's huge selling volume (now 8.3 million) is higher than yesterday's 5.69 million trade volume. The price looks likely to dip (go lower) from now.

Looks like it won't hit RM5.30 this week...... too many eager sellers at RM5.10

teoct, your proposal of only 1 landed property ownership sounded like PH government's manifesto or China & S'pore's 1 child policy (more than a decade ago). If it were to go to the extreme (plenty of extremist in Malaysia).... it may turn into former Zimbabwe president Robert Mugabi's government's legislation of robbing rich landlords of their vast land ownership and dividing the land (plantations & factories) among their local poor people for them to own at least 1 property & to manage the plantations & factories.... look what happened to Zimbabwe now.

I already received my dividend on 29 Jan 2019.

Hehehe.... already started moving up again, now RM5.21, as I said.... be patient.... RM5.30 coming soon!

Hahaha.... be patient limkokthye. Already up the previous 4 days consecutively mah.... so, if rest one day no up is normal loh. RM5.30 is still on the way.

I would love to continue my discussion with Philip bcoz I can learn more from him.... but I sense there r people here who only like to hear things that support their position & don't welcome other point of views. So, I'll just wait for the market to unfold itself & see what happens later.

Fully agree with u 3iii. Nothing more to add or subtract to your comment.

Hahaha.... "sell it and buy what?" U r so wealthy.... u should b able to buy high grade bonds or go into forex & landed properties.

Good to hear your wife is a trained actuarist. In that case, u already have an expert advisor on risk.... nothing to worry about anymore. I see that's y u r so bold & brave in your investment moves.

There r many many kinds of risks.... not just volatility & concentration risks. I think u should take some time to figure out what r those other kinds of risks which u ignore (becoz u r not aware of their existence).

When u compare your PCHEM investment with stockraider's INSAS, u think u r minimizing risk but from the way u keep on compounding your investments in the same few stocks.... u r actually increasing your risks whenever u top up your investments.

Already RM5.17 now..... high probability of reaching RM5.30 within this week.

No lah.... EPF selling not to raise fund for dividends (they r cash rich), they sell to press the price down so that they can buy more PCHEM at lower prices. This is so obvious.... I have seen them doing this so many times to other counters b4.

High probability of reaching RM5.30 within this week.

It is not really insider info/trading. They have the resources (human resource, financial resource, full time, worldwide coverage, etc.) to gain better quality info (more accurate & more timely) than the rest of us. E.g. they have several teams of full-time paid researchers that visit companies, factories, interview company management personally, etc. How many of us have such resources?

Looks like distribution again leh..... high volume but price no up again, some ikan bilis kena trap at 31.5 / 32 sen leh.

RM5 sure break one.... mayb can break today!

EPF pushing up this counter..... hard to go slow, will move up very quickly!

Please check Dicktionary for the meaning of FINANCE or FINANCING..... see got mention anything about debt or borrowing or not. No need to explain to me further.... just know it for your own reference.

O.K. lah.... let u win lah. Right now I have no time to argue.... I want to focus on making money in my trading.

Aiyo Dicky, I told u to read up accounting & finance.... have u don't it or not. I lazy to educate u lah. Anyway, this forum is about Sapura Energy lah..... no need to argue further about Debts, Education & WORKING lah.

There is nothing wrong with WORKING lah..... everyone has to start somewhere b4 they can do something great. I am sure most successful businessmen were once employee WORKING for someone (to get experience & skill mah) b4 they venture into their own business.

I also did not say education is everything loh..... it is just that u don't seem to know the difference between equity financing & debt financing loh.... & keep repeating the same thing many times as if other people don't understand u. So I think u need to check your own accounting knowledge loh.

So if u r sick don't trust an educated medical doctor; if u have legal problems no need educated lawyer; if u start a company don't employ an accountant..... etc. BTW, how can teachers teach in primary & secondary schools without first having higher education?

R u saying that all educated people r thieves & conmen? U think our society can function without education? Then u should make a proposal to the PM to abolish all colleges & universities.... mayb just keep the primary & secondary schools open.

That is up to investors or speculators to judge lah..... no need to keep repeating your point of view lah.

I think the dictionary should b spelled as Dicktionary.

U bettter make your own dictionary & write your own accounting text book.

Better pancut fast2 lah.... so can go 2nd round mah. If no pancut then first round not finish how can go 2nd round?

U should study banking & finance or accounting to note the difference between debt financing & equity financing (don't just simply lump everything into debt).

Yes, runnnnn..... so the price can come down a bit for me to buy more. Hehehe!

What is this Dick talking about? RI is not Debts lah.... RI is equity financing that doesn't need to b paid back (u know accounting or not?).

Looks like rr88 is dead wrong this time (having sold off at 0.295)..... the Dick is still going strong (not yet lembek) after almost 1 hour (must b many people taking viagra)!

Philip, one other thing to consider..... for retirees like us, we need to put more emphasis in risk management than the growth potential of companies. From what I read, u have been very successful in compounding your investments for the past 10 or 20 years. As we approach retirement, success in compounding investments takes 2nd place to capital preservation through proper risk management. Hence, capital gains from years of shareholding becomes very important (try to avoid capital loss through falling asset prices.... this is the essence of capital preservation).

Usually these multi-billion dollar institutions (including EPF) have advance information about any public listed company several months b4 the quarterly report comes out.... that's y we can't figure out y they r selling (but they already know everything ahead of others who have to depend on the quarterly reports).

Congrats on your profitable investment in PCHEM. Hope for the best!

EPF's selling of 2 million to 5 million shares per day on regular basis does matter a lot!

The average daily trade volume of PCHEM was 6.7 million shares. If EPF sells 2 million shares on a particular day, that accounts for 29.9% of trade volume. If EPF sells 5 million shares instead, that accounts for 74.6% of daily trade volume. These statistics showed that EPF is such a big market player that its selling can bring down the price by around 4% per day, or if it were to buy it could push up the price by 5% per day. If this goes on over the long term (like several months) then u will see capital loss reflected in your shareholdings of PCHEM.


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(S = Qr) Philip: To be honest, no one here knows why EPF sold PCHEM. and since they have a few hundred million shares anyway, it doesn't really matter. Everything else is conjecture.

All we should care about and think about is whether or not PCHEM will do better in the future compared to today.

In 2010, IPO listed PCHEM with a valuation of 4.4 billion USD (around 14 billion back then). Today in 2019 it is worth 68 billion ringgit.

I would hold on all speculation and wait to see what the results for the latest QR will be before making am investment decision.

Speculators buy carimin and sapura and naim and etc without caring what the qr reports are saying.

Investors buy after understanding the latest quarterly report to see how the business is doing, then they make their decision.
17/02/2019 12:11
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Philip, my view of reward to investor is not just in terms of dividends received by investors. The total reward to investors includes both capital gains (or loss) and dividends. U need to include capital gains/loss because investors are expected to hold PCHEM over the long haul (long term). Now, when u put capital gains/loss into the equation then a new variable comes into the investment equation. This variable is the timing of your investment (which includes when u first started investing in PCHEM as well as any regular/occasional capital injection/withdrawal). If u started investing in PCHEM since its IPO then u have been handsomely rewarded over the past 8 or 9 years both in terms of capital gains as well as dividends. However, if someone else after reading your fantastic postings about PCHEM were to start investing in PCHEM at around RM9.00 or RM8.50 per share then he/she may not b as lucky as u for several reasons.

Over the past 8 or 9 years, the world was riding on one of the longest bull market (which is still bullish but may peak very soon) in history. QE administered by the US & Europe has resulted in assets bubbles (which may pop anytime soon). If these assets bubbles burst either in the US or Europe (as well as China) then Malaysia will also be affected. Currently, the world economy is already slowing down (accept the assets bubbles not yet burst). Hence, we may not assume that what capital gains, company profitability & dividend payouts that u enjoyed over the past 8 or 9 years (investing in PCHEM) will continue to bring u handsome reward as b4. Suppose u have RM8.5 million invested in 1 million PCHEM shares. U get RM300k annual dividend from PCHEM. If the share price of PCHEM were to drop to RM5.00 over the next few months due to operator manipulations (we call them sharks or syndicates..... guess who is the biggest shark in Bursa?) then your net worth will fall to RM5 million within a few months.... at most RM5.3 million if u add the dividend. Even though u won't sell a single share of PCHEM (because u r a long term investor), u will feel poorer by RM3.2 million (paper loss is a true loss in terms of market valuation).

U asked for concrete proof about PCHEM but what I am saying is the problem is not with PCHEM (good company with good management team). In an open economy, a company's future performance depends on many other variables other than the past performance of the company. As I said, u have to think what other people like the sharks/syndicates/operators will do to make big gains at the expense of ordinary investors as well as assets bubbles bursting, impending recession in Malaysia due to government financial restraints, etc. These are not concrete proofs but the signals have been given out (like the continuous heavy selling by EPF).


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(S = Qr) Philip: I see. On what basis do you make this claim? I'm very interested to learn more.

From what I can see, ever since they spin off of petchem into bursa listed company, they have been consistently paying 50% of dividends from their earnings.

I'm starting to get worried now :)

Can you provide us concrete proof that petchem had done such a thing before and will do such a thing in the future?

I say this because a big part of my networth had been invested in petchem, so any material information from i3 community would be very helpful!

Cheers and happy CNY risktransforner!
17/02/2019 11:45
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Hahaha!! qqq3, no problem.

I want to take this opportunity to acknowledge that, from what I read in Philip's posts about PCHEM, he has done a lot of fundamental research into the petrochemical industry worldwide.

However, the investment climate (or culture) in Malaysia is very different from those in mature industrialized countries such as the US, Germany & Japan. PCHEM, being based in Malaysia, may not reward investors as predictably as petrochemical companies in the US, Germany & Japan. In Malaysia, anything outside of the fundamentals can happen..... "Malaysia boleh!!"

If EPF does heavy selling to realised profits (accounting profits) for the purpose of dividend payments then please take note of the following (below):

EPF closed its accounts at 31 Dec every year & takes 2 or 3 weeks in Jan every year to calculate dividend payments based on the previous year's profits ending 31 Dec of the previous year. This is the accounting protocol: u cannot use the realised profits in Jan 2019 to pay the dividends for 2018 (ending 31 Dec 2018). But EPF only started its heavy selling from 7 Jan 2019 till now (mid Feb 2019)..... by accounting protocol, any realised profits from 7 Jan 2019 onwards cannot b used to pay for 2018 dividends (it must, instead, b reserved for 2019 dividend payments next year). So, I think Philip's argument that EPF sells PCHEM to realise profits for dividend payment is against the standard accounting protocol.

NB: I wonder why this year EPF delayed the announcement of dividend payment to mid Feb (usually they announce b4 end of Jan).

Hahaha!! These people r interested in O&G but they r interested in the price going down to 20+ sen so that they can buy back what they have sold off earlier.

Philip, u r so wrong about this. Suppose u have invested in 10 different companies & 9 of the companies were losing money or underwater accept this one company that is so profitable & growing strongly year after year. Would u keep holding onto the 9 underwater companies & sell off a huge portion of your shareholding in this profitable company to cover your living expenses? Or would u salvage whatever u can get out of the 9 underwater companies & buy more of this very profitable company? FYI, EPF has sold off its shareholdings in many of those underwater companies u listed earlier, especially Sapura Energy.

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(S = Qr) Philip: I think it's more of a case where they can't sell sapura because it's underwater, they can't sell Armada because it's underwater, they can't sell fgv because it was making losses, and they can't a lot of "institutional" shares because it was loss making last year. So only way is to hold and wait.

What can they sell? PCHEM. Because it was profitable last year and can sell to cover the dividend payment to pay for epf savings this year.

Go figure.
16/02/2019 18:32
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