Jeffretteck - how did you derive 5%?? At the regular 4 sen per year dividends & at RM2 per share, the DY = 2%.

Your calculator has enough battery power ah?

Insofar as Toto & Magnum is concerned, punters bet small amounts with a hope to win big. For RM1 (for which you can't buy anything these days), there's an excitement of winning a large amount.

It helps keep peoples' sanity. It's an event to look forward to.

PN2020 - Can you tell me one thing PAS can do to generate millions for the government?

Pandai to sapu money & buy expensive cars. Kelantan always deficit. You want money but no idea how to make money.

Tell us your business model.

PAS can ban but that means losing RM800m per year in the form of sin taxes from Toto alone. Certainly company selling nasi lemak or satay cannot generate that much revenue for the government!

Whose going to foot the ministers' pay and their expensive but useless lawatan sambil belajar?

agreed with gsi723.

1st Qtr results however will be a mixture of puss, shit & vomit.

So much profit but dividends are tiny in comparison.

If the share price rises due to profit retention then fine but it did not. So shareholders bang balls.

I concur with firehawk

Balance sheet appears stronger

Some figures to ponder ...
1. Cash generated from operations = 868m

It was used to ...

2. Purchase Property, Plant & Equipment = 514m
3. Repay borrowing 260m

F..up puny dividends despite fairly ok profit!! Only 18.3% of earnings.

Share price performance is bad, then they should make it up with decent dividends.

March 2020 quarterly results will be shit!

I'm expecting a fairly good Q4 based on cursory top-down analysis.

The current price increase is the typical pre-quarterly results and dividend play. It could be to get punters to pick-up and then sting them with mediocre results & puny dividends or reward them with the converse.

Either way an increase in volatility.

Me too - made a few cents but i'd like to add a little detail ... lost a lot of dollars!

I feel the earth move under my feet!

Earnings for 3 quarters to Sep is 148m++. Given the favorable slight uptrend of crude from Oct - Dec 2019 & on the basis that there was no hedging, I believe Petron could register about 50m, bringing the total for the year to about 200m

Choivo Capital Well, here's to hoping it drops to 4....

Likewise - looks like our natural risk management instinct of diversification kicks in

Limbo rock - How poor can we go

I guess no DRIP take up this round in view of the steep decline in the share price.

Latest news about Tony being investigated is a little too much coming from India. This is in addition to AK being investigated. There's a blur line as to what constitutes a bribe and what smoothens the wheels of the authorities. If only obtaining the green light of any business was as simple as checking all the boxes of the checklist.

Doing business in India is mired in red tape. The Govt depts are slow to respond. The civil servants think they are lords. And to top it off, I'm sure that there are others more egregious corruptions to pick on.

Is the drop due to some nut making idiotic statements resulting in us losing the high-margin refined palm oil oleo-chemical business?

I hope for a big fat dividend from this disposal. A lean company is good discipline for any management. However going by the track record and prejudiced by years of suffering as Kian Joo shareholder, I'm supremely confident that this will not happen.

Actually it's bad luck to predict lofty targets.

Also lofty targets make it easier to perform below expectations causing a disappointment.

So Choivo Capital & john0909 - what're your respective answers?

A minor erection but whether it's sustainable

The guessing game for the 4th qtr 2019 earnings ...

A Loss
B 0 - 50m
C 51 - 100m
D - > 100m

I hate to count the chickens before they hatch or be too optimistic but think this time, we could exceed 100m - D

I'll be damn disappointed if it falls below my expectations. Hoping for the best.

CPO rise is strangely meteoric but who's complaining!

Long wait bro ...

Dividend announcement = April

Ex and Payment dates = Jun

The devil's in the details but in a nutshell ...

BK is primarily driven by CPO prices given the big chunk of dividends it receives from KLK.

However it is somewhat mitigated by the oppositely correlated impact on downstream oleo chemicals that enjoy improved margins at lower CPO.

Then there's the earnings from industrial chemicals and smaller stuff from property development.

BK main man Tan Sri Dato Lee has been picking up a couple of lots but because of trading illiquidity, that was enough for the share to climb precipitously.

Just speculating - Maybe he wants shareholders to pay more for the DRP

WSJ historical prices reveal some interesting stats.

Based on June 94 price of 2.40 vs Dec 2019 price of 16.60, compounded annual gain (excluding the handsome intermittent dividends) = 7.9%!

If we compare June 94 to Dec 2016, then the gain is 9.4%!!

I hope somebody invents a time tunnel.

tq DickyMe

Profits & returns are all huffing & puffing as to how great the business is. It's like someone claiming he's the heavyweight champion. The real deal is when he gets into the ring to prove all his claims.

Likewise any decent accountant can manufacture profits. The real deal is when it's converted to cash & distributed in the form of dividends.

DickyMe - I'm trying to get some info on this erosion which I think is quite possible.

Could you provide some link or reference on this matter?

This is the response to my open letter I got from the management of BK ...

Sorry for the late reply.

BKB has been investing in several property development projects in Australia with further capital commitments and BKB is also looking into other investment opportunities. Besides, BKB Chemical Group is embarking on several projects i.e. building on-site co-generation as reported in last year’s annual report and investing in better technology in its key process in the chlor-alkali operation.

Save for the above, the DRP will provide shareholders the opportunity to enhance their equity participation in the Company at a discounted price over long term.


Best regards,


Goh Swee Eng

Chief Financial Officer/Company Secretary

RM329m cash balance on 30 Sep.

9 months profit at RM148m.

9 months cash generated from operations RM976m.

Liabilities down RM326m (don't look at lease liabilities as they're just change in accounting treatment)

With such glowing numbers, they could easily reward shareholders with 30 sen which cost RM81m

I'm looking forward to a good dividend announcement for the 4th qtr results or else I'm gonna take a flamethrower to the AGM.

DickyMe How shameful. Once this stock traded at more than RM 100 per share, today selling at goreng pisang price.

I doubt it. Even if it had then perhaps there must have been a bonus issue and/or share split.

Gallop on baby!!

TQ Lukey_Greek - so you are referring to packaging of edible oils.

Lukey_Greek - I don't see how an increase in price of Edible oils & fats can be positive for Contracts Manufacturing Division?

I thought it'll be the opposite affect as the cost of input will rise.

AGM not announced yet i understand

I flew AA KL-Sing recently and I can see first hand that the plane is teeming with passengers. Mentally I counted the occupied seats and estimated the revenue from the flight minus the attributable costs.

All I can say is that AA is not charging an arm and a leg which is good for customers & the margin was positive but rather fine for that flight.

Results are good as operational profits improved significantly.

A big chunk of the losses arose from derivatives & FX which is certainly acceptable. Nobody can predict the market direction - This quarter loss, maybe next a gain.

My open letter, emailed to the senior management....

Dear Management,

Share Buyback
As a shareholder, I am very very happy with the Batu Kawan (BK) Management for removing 10% of issued shares. A lot of money, time & effort have been put in this endeavor. As you may be aware, the PE ratio is a relative constant for given company which in the case of BK is 13++.

Going forward, if the total earnings can be maintained, BK share price can be expected to rise which is good news for shareholders. It also means better ROE and dividends per share.

DRP - New Capital for what purpose?
The share buyback implies that BK has returned excess capital. Now with DRP the entire process will be reversed. There'll be a surplus capital coming out of the pockets of shareholders. Does BK need this extra money? What will this new capital be for? BK after all has over the years of existence been conservatively reinvesting a big chunk of yearly profits back into the business.

Perhaps there an intention to privatise BK?

Let's enjoy life
I certainly need the cash from dividends and I'm sure most of the shareholders also want this twice a year cash for enjoyment & settlement of bills. I'm aware I've a choice but I do not want it at the expense of diluting my stake. Dear major shareholders, please let's enjoy life and not plough-back every excess penny that you get.

Getting Richer Without DRP
At this current state of affairs without DRP, I can reasonably infer that going forward, the share price will appreciate for this well-run company by simply maintaining the earnings. Shareholders will get to spend the entire dividend money (or diversify and invest it another company) and without the concern of dilution.

Please do take note. If you have valid reasons for this, I'd like to hear it.

TQ

CPO prices have since increased by a big jump, which should augur well for cash levels and dividends.

I make sure & I tell my kids as well that every time we need fuel go to Petron. (When I held Digi shares, I switched my entire family from Maxis to Digi).

I think the unexplored potential of Petron stations is the basic groceries. May be the management feels that it's too much of an effort for some loose change but Petdag considers it as a significant source of income. Besides the straight forward income, the grocery and petrol pump complement each other.

A Loss : 0
B 0 - 50m - 2 (Sheldon, john 0909)
C 51 - 100m : 2.5 (hock007, damiantreez, Chiovo Capital)
D - > 100m 0.5 (Chiovo Capital)

Looks like John 0909 & I are spot on

Looks like someone's taking my advise really seriously. There's a bump in trading volume.

Rwkl - I see your point on KLK especially on PE basis but not so much on net asset/share basis relative to other plantation cos.

Despite that B. Kawan with its industrial chemical business & Oleochemical via KLK is quite attractive at today's prices.

I fear that this Co has all the ingredients to be taken private namely:

1) 10% of shares taken off the market making it cheaper
2) hardly any trading liquidity
3) under appreciated by the investors (i.e. cheap) - resulting that the major shareholder could acquire the Co for a song

We, the non-controlling interest would then have to give up this prized possession with little compensation

Positive on EPS, all things being equal.

They are not permitted to buy any more.