IPO price was 35sen! So, it would be crazy for the anchors to sell at current depressed price! Even the insiders have bought at higher prices!

The sellers are either crazy or intentionally press down price for accumulations!

A really surprise reversal today! Those sold yesterday maybe short term punters that lock up the 40sen dividend and at the same time sell to take back some capital for the next punt!

Since IPO, about 2 million shares were collected by directors at an average price of about 31 sen!

Read the Castlelake's plane buying deal with AirAsia! Really a surprise news!

Just hold and enjoy the special dividend first! Business is still good!

For some reasons, Maybank IB Research choose to write something negative which is not true as highlighted by Felicity! Why?

US oil production:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Production-May-Jump-To-14-Million-Bpd-By-2020.html

You will get your dividend on payment date. Ex-date means you are entitle if you still hold the shares on that date!

Learn to read Bursa announcements, it is important!

Raymond Yap's email: raymond.yap@cimb.com

Just in case you need to write to him!

CIMB analyst name is Raymond Yap (Singaporean)

Business life cycle:

https://youtu.be/c20_S-QgvsA

You can play around with P&L, balance sheet and so on! You can never play around with dividend payments!

Dividends matter to investors:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091015/5-reasons-why-dividends-matter-investors.asp

Looking back AirAsia was in high debt, that was a few years back. Gearing was about 2.3 times! Now AirAsia is a net cash company! Strictly, the market should revalue AirAsia due to less risk now!

AirAsia should keep dividend pay out strong going forward, that way the market will take notice and give it a better valuation!

If oil price remain low for the next 2 months, AirAsia is likely to lock up the low oil price for 2019!

It is possible to have another special dividend at Q4 announcement in February! Just a wild guess!

Good chance to be a great company!

The coming special dividend + the new low price in oil will power AirAsia to new high in 2019!

Just do some study on end 2015 to early 2016 oil price scenario, then I bet you know what to do after that!

2019 will be a good year for AirAsia!

Below is an extract from the 2015 annual report:

Following the pick-up in travel demand towards the second half of 2015, and more rational capacity, we are confident of the general outlook for the year 2016. This is supported by the continuing drop in fuel price. The Group as a whole has hedged 76% of our fuel needs at USD54 per barrel, as opposed to 50% at USD88 per barrel in 2015, which is set to save us a total of RM1.8 billion. Volatility of the Ringgit’s exchange rate against the USD remains a concern, however, we have hedged a substantial amount of our USD loans, with 36% of aircraft loans hedged at a USD:RM exchange rate of 3.2348 and another 35% are naturally hedged as the aircraft are leased to our associates which will be paying for them in USD.

If you look back on late 2015 and early 2016 scenario, AirAsia made a record profits for 2016!

Likely, 2019 Will be a good year for AirAsia!

Good chance for AirAsia to buy forward for 2019 and beyond usage!

The broad selloff in oil accelerated Friday as investors grew increasingly concerned about a surge of production expected to come from the U.S. and fears of a slowdown in global economic growth.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 3.2% at $60.58 a barrel midmorning on London’s Intercontinental Exchange.

The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate futures, traded down 5.3% at $51.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The American crude grade is down by nearly a third from its Oct. 3 closing high.


Investors remain skeptical that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna on Dec. 6 will be able to turn the tide on oil supply enough to support prices.

If Tony still hold most of the USD dollars on the sale of AAC, then it will be ok for AA!

Hope Tony will hedge for 2019 at current oil price!

Learning to value and judge a business potential is an art! And is probably the most valuable thing we can learn in investment work!

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/investing/oil-prices-bear-market/index.html

AAC sale: https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2018/3/1/airasia-sells-aircraft-leasing-operations-for-us118-billion

The last of the aircraft transfer is expected to be done by coming week! Let us see what happen after that! I agree that the market now is more negative than positive!

On stock investment: Most of us are short term but we think we are long term!

You can find many good companies but not many great companies. If you find one, just keep it!

At yesterday close, about 7.7 mil shares were transacted at 2.56! Are these the last of shares that the seller wanted to clear? If selling is little or negligible coming week, we can probably assumed a capitulation has happened yesterday!

Sorry! I mean please read carefully and correctly!

traderalexooi: Please announcements carefully!

At current price and after ex-special dividend, AirAsia's share price is about RM2.0! This is absurd! If you recall, Tony and partner took up additional 20% shares at about RM1.80! That was without AAC sale! Now with AAC concluded!

About one more month, everything will be over!

Do not sleep and forget to read Bursa announcements on cash already received!

The disposal of AAC has help mitigate the effect of USD strength! Airasia now holds nearly a billion USD dollars In cash!

One more month!

Total proceeds received to date is USD936.6 millions!

Investing in low cost airline business is a long haul! Due to fluctuating oil prices, it is better to take the year's average instead of the quarterly numbers!

Unless you don't believe in low cost airline as a viable business, then just exit and forget about the oil prices news that keep bothering you!

Just imagine that you are going to invest and start a business of your own! Can you achieve a PAT of 15%? Not easy! Most small businesses starting out actually failed!

In my view, it is probably safer to put your money with AirAsia then to risk your capital into the unknown!

Between premium and low cost airline, my choice is still the later! Then you want to understand the short haul vs the long haul business model. The short haul is still a better bet!

As long as the business is viable, profitable and still with growth, then it won't be very wrong to keep your investment on it!

Assuming you buy AirAsia at 3.02 (market closed yesterday) and you get paid a special dividend of 50sen in the next 3 months!

Your ex-invesment cost after special dividend is 3.02-0.50= 2.52

Multiply 2.52 with 3.342(share base in billions)= 8.42 billions!

8.42 is the market cap after ex-special dividend

AirAsia's current revenue is about 10.0 bil a year!

Roughly, you can say you putting down RM8.50 to do RM10 ringgit business! AirAsia's average 10 year PAT is about 15%

Decide for yourself if it make sense to invest!

Note: I am assuming no price movement after announcement of special dividend which is not likely!

Instead of speculating, just look back the last 10 years data on AirAsia! This will guide you on the likelyhood. The fuel surcharge acts as a relieve valve if fuel price is eating too much into the margin! As long as AirAsia is maintaining its lowest cost structure, it will still come off well eventually!

https://www.malaysiaairlines.com/hq/en/advisory/fuel-surcharge.html

MAS is starting to impose the fuel surcharge!

With the remaining 70% of profits plough into business to expand the business, you can expect earnings to improve to increase bottom line! Improving bottom line will support share price in 2 to 3 years!

At current share price, you are getting a dividend yield similar to a FD in a bank!

GDB 2018 EPS is expected to be about 5sen!

With "dividend policy of 30%", you can expect 1.5sen dividend per year! Divide 1.5sen by current share price, you will get about 4% on dividend yield!

Is on the blog link below!

If you look at the latest Q2 video presentation, it is possible that special dividend can be announced by the time of Q3 result! Watch video to hear comment directly from Tony on this issue!

Airasia being one of the most cost efficient low cost airline actually has an advantage at period of high oil price! Oil price affects all airlines, more so if you are less cost efficient! The pressure is more on the other airlines! Airasia can capitalized during time like this to gain market share!

If you look at last 10 years, AirAsia has gone through much higher oil prices!