Ignissimia, one possibility is the 9 plus millions was sold to lock up the share value at higher price! The last few days can buy back at lower price.

What is the likely scenario next week?

Ignissimia, good observation! Thank you!

So, Calvintan is back again? Just read the following link he wrote last year:

1) https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/96620.jsp
2) https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/110144.jsp

Why stay on this site when you think AA is a stupid stock? Must be stupid to waste your time here, right?

You need a ton of shits to dump at the talk nonsense guy!

Time will tell whether it is a trick or not. The human brain is funny! When others are willing to buy higher, you fear there is a catch or trick. Try to work out forward 2017 PE valuation after minus off the dividend + special dividend on your share holding cost, you will find AirAsia is still mid single digit! Big funds are not stupid to buy in if valuation is expensive!

Focus and share good info with readers! You don't have to compare yourself with others! The readers know who is writing meaningful comment! Write with more specific comment rather than just big picture! Big picture means what?

thurston, thanks for letting us know the improvements AirAsia have made! Hope AirAsia will continue to be a winner! Combination of strong leadership by Tony and committed management provided by Aireen is a good recipe for success and is likely to power AirAsia forward!

I3 should seriously include a new feature that allow voting an ID to be excluded. If ID score is below a certain %, it is automatically excluded. A new system feature! This will improve the writing quality and also stop quarreling! A better i3 site!

batu88, I am assuming USD 900 as the 100% stake now! Anything more than USD900 is a bonus!

Sorry "the final bid". Typo error!

batu 88, you are right, I just checked CIMB report published on 9th Mar, it stated as what you just published. Anyway, we should know by coming Monday the final bad!

Quote: "KOTAM and AirAsia are negotiating final terms of the purchase of a majority stake in the leasing unit, one of the sources said. Asia's biggest budget airline has sought buyers for its subsidiary since last year, and has said it aimed to close a sale early this year."

"A deal with KOTAM could still fall through, and two sources said that AirAsia has not closed the door to a deal with a Chinese bidder."

1) It says still negotiating final terms on majority stake with KOTAM. So, USD900 mil is partial or what?
2) There is still one Chinese bidder!

Agree! At least USD 900 mil is minimum.

Just a scenario analysis:

If AA pays out all the full amount as special dividend and another 10 sen normal dividend, and say with RM 2.85, current share price for calculation, effectively your holding cost per share now is RM1.55 (2.85 -1.20 - 0.10). Then the total market cap now is RM1.55 x 3.342 bil shares, roughly about 5.2 bil.

Depend on AA's 2017 earnings, say 1.0 to 1.5 bil range. At 1.0, PE is 5.2. At 1.5, PE is 3.5!

Roughly is still ok at RM 2.85 current share price!

Just my humble view!

At USD900 mil, it is still worth about RM1.20 per share! Still not so bad!. It would be nice if it is more. I guess without the Chinese bidders, you cannot expect too much!

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/drop-oil-prices-means-airline-profitability-boost-now

Rumours or not! Low oil price cannot be bad for airlines for sure! Hopefully, no bad hedging!

Hi feicsh! Do you think Warren Buffett's decision to buy airline stocks has something to do with the doom oil futures?

Doom oil future!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd9XCQhIlYg

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/companies-claim-largest-us-onshore-oil-discovery-in-30-years.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43VVeutvDI4

[TRV] Sloan Ratio - Analyzing Accruals to Pick Winners (AIRASIA & PADINI)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/TRV/117859.jsp

About 4 weeks left for market riggers to play around!

Note AirAsia's directors are buying! See announcement today.

@Calvin is just a car salesman! He must have failed there and trying his luck in stocks. Judging on what he wrote, likely he will failed again! It is a joke that he brand himself with "Calvin Tan Research"

Teh Diven trying to be god? He is so good in predicting? Trying to be stupid!

The car salesman is at it again?

This is a common sense! Not an invention by anybody! A common sense rule!

I am buying more for sure!

GMT, JP Morgan and now David Fickling all doing the same thing. Influence the market to sell out so that their clients can buy it cheap!

Note that Warren Buffett for the first time is buying into airlines business! There is a saying "Never bet against Warren"

Stockmanmy, maybe you should be writing to Tony instead!

On Sat, 26 Nov, 2016 at 5:55 a.m., David Fickling (BLOOMBERG/ NEWSROOM:)
<dfickling@bloomberg.net> wrote:
I cover airlines, among other sectors. Not many other stocks in Malaysia that I follow closely though.

I think they're a pretty formidable business!

Sent from Bloomberg Professional for Android

Further clarification from Dave Fickling:

I'm basing it off operating margins, not net margins, as it's a little hard to work out how tax and interest are allocated among the different units. I'm not going off the headline numbers in the earnings statement but backing out figures based on the expenses breakdown and the breakdown of revenue sources.

As you can see from the chart "Lessee is More", operating profits certainly have been higher from the "airline" business than the leasing business in 1Q16 and 3Q16, but in all other quarters for the past three years leasing has done better than airline.

I think AirAsia is a very smart business to be honest, and have said so in the past. It has its regional rivals on the defensive and has used this leasing income to help undercut the competition.

I think spinning off the leasing business will be more of a profound change to the business than many investors seem to think, though, so I do think people are being a little blase about it.
25/11/2016 14:21

This is his Fickling's reply:

No worries -- I probably didn't explain the different categories well.

*Ticket sales minus operating expenses -- AirAsia loses money
*Ticket sales plus baggage fees, plus ancillary revenues, minus operating expenses -- AirAsia makes money, but not a lot
*Ticket sales plus baggage fees, plus ancillary revenues, minus operating expenses, plus operating lease income, minus operating lease expense -- AirAsia makes a good amount of money

So I'm not saying that AirAsia makes no money on "normal airline operations" -- just that it's generally made less money from this than it's made from aircraft leasing. The 3Q results suggest it might be balancing more towards "normal operations" at this point. D
25/11/2016 14:19

I wrote to David Fickling on his article today "AirAsia's new lease of life"


Hi Dave,

I read your comment and the latest AirAsia's Q3 report.

I noted the AAC's net margin is about 20% and then the group's net margin is 26%.

The group's net margin after consolidating with AAC's numbers must be less than 20% if the other businesses are not making money, right? Now it is 26%! How do you explain this?

Please advice!

Thank you

Dividend yield is about 4.4% at yesterday's closed of 2.71(If it is paying 12sen as indicated in the RHB's report)

FF holdings:

31-Dec-14 60.83%
30-Jun-15 52.96%
31-Dec-15 47.26%
30-Jun-16 56.00%

The first 6 months this year FF holding increase by approximately 9%. This has caused the price run up strongly! I suspect the last 6 months this year, the % has come down.

The weakening ringgit is putting many FF on hold. If you are FF, you would want to see if the ringgit stabilises first before committing.

AA is still a growth stock! This is the main attraction!

Tan KW, do you have your own view on Fickling article?

Hi meathere, I supposed you are still having AirAsia in your portfolio?

Meather, i am now neutral on the sale of AAC. Both AAC and the airline business are having strong operating margins! I agree that the market is not according higher value to AirAsia due to debts. That was the reason why i supported the sale of AAC to pare down debts. In the latest Q3 report, gearing has dropped to 1.47 times, not as bad now!

Yes, this is the article!

Further clarification from Dave Fickling:

I'm basing it off operating margins, not net margins, as it's a little hard to work out how tax and interest are allocated among the different units. I'm not going off the headline numbers in the earnings statement but backing out figures based on the expenses breakdown and the breakdown of revenue sources.

As you can see from the chart "Lessee is More", operating profits certainly have been higher from the "airline" business than the leasing business in 1Q16 and 3Q16, but in all other quarters for the past three years leasing has done better than airline.

I think AirAsia is a very smart business to be honest, and have said so in the past. It has its regional rivals on the defensive and has used this leasing income to help undercut the competition.

I think spinning off the leasing business will be more of a profound change to the business than many investors seem to think, though, so I do think people are being a little blase about it.

This is his reply:

No worries -- I probably didn't explain the different categories well.

*Ticket sales minus operating expenses -- AirAsia loses money
*Ticket sales plus baggage fees, plus ancillary revenues, minus operating expenses -- AirAsia makes money, but not a lot
*Ticket sales plus baggage fees, plus ancillary revenues, minus operating expenses, plus operating lease income, minus operating lease expense -- AirAsia makes a good amount of money

So I'm not saying that AirAsia makes no money on "normal airline operations" -- just that it's generally made less money from this than it's made from aircraft leasing. The 3Q results suggest it might be balancing more towards "normal operations" at this point. D

I wrote to David Fickling on his article today "AirAsia's new lease of life"


Hi Dave,

I read your comment and the latest AirAsia's Q3 report.

I noted the AAC's net margin is about 20% and then the group's net margin is 26%.

The group's net margin after consolidating with AAC's numbers must be less than 20% if the other businesses are not making money, right?Now it is 26%! How do you explain this?

Please advice!

Thank you

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/109885.jsp

AAC net operating margin is about 20% for Q3. After consolidating AAC numbers into group's number, the group's net operating margin actually went up to 26%. So, is this Bloomberg article make sense?

25/11/2016 10:14

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/109885.jsp

AAC net operating margin is about 20% for Q3. After consolidating AAC numbers into group's number, the group's net operating margin actually went up to 26%. So, is this Bloomberg article make sense?

KW,this bloomberg article is posted how long ago? Last year?