华人的世界就真的以为 华为 = 5g ; 5g = 华为。 哈哈

Actually, EG is making averagely 30-40mil cash flow from operation per quarter
(note that this quarter of cash flow is negative, is due to increase of receivables .. meaning sales is done but customer haven't pay money)

EG total borrowings is 190mil. They should get debt free in 2 years time if things go smooth.

@Leonardo, it is written in the quarter report. There is a section stating the utilisation of proceeds.

Let me speak the facts:

1) Gkent's TRUE orderbook should be ard 1.5bil, not 5.5bil.
2) Gkent will never rebound to RM3.
3) At below RM1.2, it is cheap.

4) At this moment, Gkent will still be busy for another 2-3 years, if no new project = gg.

5) Gkent's market cap is 721mil today, (Company, not group) with 350mil of net cash, and retained profit of 171mil (maximum allowed to utilize for share buy-back) based on audited account year 2018.

6) EGM for share-buyback will happen in few hours, see if the Board is really determined to push the share price or not.

7) I believe the share price would be reasonable at 1.5x - 2.0x, however, leave this to be judge by the market.

Gkent is going to have EGM for approval for company share buy back on nxt Monday morning...
Hope they will go in market to support/push once get approval.

Airasia results will be badly affected by fuel price,

Even if it still able to show good number for this coming quarter,
he wont for nxt quarter/ nxt nxt quarter.

Oil price has rised to USD 70-71 in past weeks.

DNEX is well-divided into 2 segments based on last quarter result:

Net profit for IT segment = 8mil+
Net profit for O&G = 8mil+

while IT segment might take some hit (if any - wont be so fast, toll is still collecting), net profit for O&G gonna rise (immediately), considering the Oil price has up from avg USD 55/bbl to USD 65/bbl in the past quarter.

Buying a good stock is 1 thing.
Buying a good stock at great value is another thing.

If the market sentiment is bad, no point keep holding if the share wont up but risking for the downtrend (even the company is great).

YES, good stock will also drop, like Maybank drop from RM10 to RM 4 during crisis.

If Ptchem drop from RM8 to RM 2, whereas LCTitan holds at RM 5, which one will u buy more?


** Note: I'm still holding some of LCtitan but looking to reduce my exposure due to uncertain markets & alot of other shares has discounted recently. There's no need to fall in love to a stock if there are more attractive stocks out there.

If 1 tin of Cola is RM3, and 1 tin of Pepsi drop until RM 0.8; though I love Cola but I can drink more Pepsi if I switch to Pepsi.

Afraid this coming QR won't look good also....
My only hope is that the IPC helps to boost company profit margin from the next quarter.

Alot of stocks is droooooooooping !

THOSE WHO BOUGHT CG WILL GG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lotte Chemical Maintains ‘Top-Pick’ Stock Position
Outlook on global ethylene business continues to show rally; company predicted to benefit from favorable factors
27(Tue), Mar, 2018


Lotte Chemical is forecast to benefit from favorable factors such as a booming U.S. ethylene industry, Kiwoom Securities Co. said in a report.

The report showed that despite the United States’ increased supply, the outlook on the global ethylene business will continue to rally. It is attributable to a periodic rise in polymer demand, caused by China’s environmental regulations.

Lotte Chemical shares have maintained the “top-pick” position among chemical-related shares. The company logged the highest-ever levels since last December, thanks to ethylene and propylene, which have seen a favorable rebound in demand.

Lotte Chemical Titan’s results met analysts’ consensus estimates. The company saw sales amount to 2.117 billion ringgits in the fourth quarter of last year and operating profit stand at 356 million ringgits, representing a 5 percent rise and a 48.3 percent surge over the same period of the previous year, respectively. Lotte Chemical Titan shares need to be seen through he lens of “quantitative improvement.” The target share price is 580,000 won per share, Kiwoom Securities said.

Lotte Chemical announced a provisional consolidated financial statement for the 4th quarter of 2017 in which the company logged 4.03 trillion won in sales, 714.4 billion won in operating profit and 493.2 billion won in net profit.

The figures represented a 9.9 percent rise, a 2.6 percent drop and a 14.9 percent plunge over the same period of the previous year, respectively, the company said.


http://www.newsworld.co.kr/detail.htm?no=3864

Malaysia's Lotte Chemical Titan to start up new polypropylene unit by June
Singapore (Platts)--27 Mar 2018 435 am EDT/835 GMT



Malaysia's Lotte Chemical Titan plans to start up a new 200,000 mt/year polypropylene unit at Pasir Gudang by June, a company source said Tuesday.

This follows the start of commercial operations at its new catalytic cracker at Pasir Gudang last December.

The catalytic cracker is part of the company's TE3 project, which will increase Lotte Chemical Titan's overall ethylene production capacity to 810,000 mt/year from 720,000 mt/year.

As the catalytic olefins technology converts low value olefinic, paraffinic or mixed streams into high value propylene and ethylene, the cracker will also add another 170,000 mt/year of propylene to Lotte Chemical Titan's overall production capacity of 420,000 mt/year, and 134,000 mt/year of benzene/toluene/xylene.

The current aromatics plant makes 100,000 mt/year of benzene and 55,000 mt/year of toluene.

It is also studying the feasibility of building an integrated petrochemical complex at Merak, Indonesia, with an ethylene production capacity of 1 million mt/year.

Parent company, South Korea's Lotte Chemical, will also expand the production capacity of its naphtha-fed steam cracker at Yeosu over the second half of 2018.

The Yeosu expansion will add 200,000 mt/year of ethylene capacity, 100,000 mt/year of propylene, 40,000 mt/year of BTX and 20,000 mt/year of butadiene. The expansion works are due to take place during September 11 to November 1.


https://www.platts.com/latest-news/petrochemicals/singapore/malaysias-lotte-chemical-titan-to-start-up-new-26923536

Go in CG with full of shirts, come out CG without underwear.

I just board on this ship... ~_~

Dropping bit by bit...

For those who can read chinese can come to read my writeup for LCtitan.

http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=37883&extra=

@kelvin, mind to share where do you get the info of ASP for petrochem raise 5%-8% since early Feb2018?

To be included into KLCI index, one must..

1) Big Cap
2) Financial/Fundamental looks good (no lose money quarter)
3) Got Free float (15%) & Good liquidity (10% annual turnover of free float shares), *important criteria*
4) * Share price stable/keep up.

It is revised semi-annually.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/products_services_Indices_Presentation_FBM-KLCI_060709.pdf

In the last quarters,

1) Lotte's cash flow from operation = positive 300mil+ from 3Q -> 4Q
2) HengYuan cash flow from operation = negative 200mil+ from 3Q -> 4Q.

The different between Lotte & Hengyuan except their business nature:

1) Lotte is 2nd company that holding the most cash in KLSE. [+3.6 bil]
2) Hengyuan is one of the company that having most debt [-2.2 bil]

What does the trade war matters with LCTitan? lolz

Never know LCtitan selling steel / aluminium products to US.

Suddenly fly, happiest moment after months ~~

Buy warrant will be damned ...

Need wait company to release annual report,
then choose a date for AGM,
after approved for dividend in AGM,
only then will announce the date.

I believe by then, the ex-date/entitlement date will be MAY...

As i keep on repeating, Structured warrant must die 1st before mother can move...
Everytime when ppl hype with structured warrant, it has high possibility that it will retrace..

@Samuel, since you say u r working there and know it from head down...
Is it possible for you to get the latest Naptha, PE, BD etc price?

** I change my view after reading their presentation slide for 4Q:
http://www.lottechem.my/investor/material.asp

3Q2017: PBT = 245 mil,
4Q2017: PBT = 382 mil

Increased by RM137 mil, where
a) Operational: RM 110mil increment due to improved plants utilization rate & operating efficiency
b) Non operational: RM 27mil


So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, LCTitan PBT shall be above RM300mil++ for next few quarters..

*Though feedstock price is increasing, polyolefin prices also increasing, on a lagging basis.

feeling awesome with the 4th QR =),
however, got some water in the QR.... ...

Not sure will it be sustainable in the next QR, however, at least is a good start.

LCTitan's incremeent of production capacity by 1H 2018 (upon completion of TE3 & PP3 Project):

a) For ethylene, by 13.3% from 700 KTA to 793 KTA;

b) For propylene, by 44.9% from 379 KTA to 549 KTA (subject to market condition)

c) For BTX, by 86.5% from 155 KTA to 289 KTA;

d) For polypropylene, by 45.5% from 440 KTA to 640 KTA.

LCTitan's capacity share in 2016 as follows:

a) 53% capacity share in polyethylene production and 100% capacity share in polypropylene in Malaysia;

b) 57% capacity share in polyethylene production in Indonesia.

c) Fourth largest producer of polyolefin products in Southeast Asia by production capacity, with a 42% capacity share in olefins production in Malaysia and 29% capacity share in polyolefin production in Indonesia

d) Sole producer of butadiene in Malaysia with a 100% capacity share in butadiene production.

I personally hope that the net profit for Q4 shall lies between 280 - 320mil....Might disappoint if unable to hit the target.

All scheduled maintenance are done on Q3, Q4 shall achieve high ultilisation rate (excluding TE3); hence the net profit shall match/not far off from previous year's profit.

Btw, I think...

1) Even they distribute the dividend, not sure if the share price will sky rocket... cause it is anticipated by investor already.

2) Although LCtitan has strong cash flow, but i think they are actually still "short of cash" due to planned mega-expansion in Indonesia in the coming few years. Also, their fund raising in IPO was below expectation. Hence, high possibilities that they will need to right-issue (probably 2-3 years later?) for the expansion in Indonesia.


NOTE: I do own LCTITAN. =/

@kentwoon, where's the news of TE3?

High possibility for Q4 result at least to be as good as Q3, their Q4 outlook :

"Expect improved profitability due to the tight supply and increased utilization rate. "

(Taken from Lotte Chemical's (LCTitan's parent company) presentation slide for Q3 result briefing / IR Roadshow at HK & Singapore)

LCTitan is beneficial from strengthening of RM/USD. Their projection for yr 2017, for 10% of strengthening, will possibly gain +47mil for profit net of tax.

(This is taken from their IPO)

wat is happening again?? ... >_<

Repeat the show again -.-

@Guardize, wheres the news about TE3?

... Like yst show, only 30 mins show =.=

hmm..... sudden drop again? any accident happen again ?

Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd
(Oct 27, RM5.19)
Maintain buy with a lower target price (TP) of RM6.66:

Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd’s nine months of financial year 2017 (9MFY17) core profit of RM717 million (-29% year to date [YTD]) was within our expectations, but below consensus — accounting for 72% and 65% of full-year forecasts respectively. Lotte Chemcial staged a remarkable sequential rebound, where core profit surged 35% quarter-on-quarter, as plant utilisation recovered to 77% (second quarter of FY17 [2QFY17]: 71%). On top of this, recall that 2QFY17 was impacted by water supply interruption or 11 days. Additionally, higher interest income from initial public offering (IPO) proceeds amounting to RM26 million, boosted profits.

To a lesser extent, the bottom line was also propped up by lower taxes. The stellar comeback was in spite of a dip in 3QFY17 volumes from Indonesia. Recall that ethylene feedstock for Lotte Chemical’s polyethylene (PE) plants in Indonesia is mainly sourced externally. US capacity shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey had led to a surge in ethylene pricing. Therefore, Lotte Chemcial scaled down PE production in Indonesia following the dip in PE spreads. To recap, Indonesian PE accounts for 22% of FY16 revenue. Exceptional items excluded from 9MFY17 core profit include: i) PPE write-off s: RM39 million; ii)reversal of administration expenses for Lotte Chemical USA: RM15 million; iii) initial IPO expenses: RM14 million; iv) foreign exchange gains: RM28 million; and v) fair value gains: RM9 million.

YTD bottom-line contraction was mainly attributed to lower volumes and higher unit production costs due to the water incident in
April 2017. Recall that in 9MFY17, there was statutory turnaround at both of Lotte Chemical’s naphtha crackers for a total of 86 days. Additionally, volumes were also affected by the water incident, and reduced output from Indonesia. The above more than off set higher product average selling prices ( 20% YTD), lower taxes and increased interest income.

Key takeaways from a conference call: Management is optimistic about achieving strong utilisation of 90% for its Malaysian plants in 4Q17. This is underpinned by completion of all statutory turnaround, with no shutdowns scheduled for 4Q17. On a dim note, PE
output from Indonesia is expected to be lower due to weak price-earnings margins. Also, management expects 4Q17 demand to be resilient, underpinned by higher demand from Latin America until the supply from the US market recovers. Recall that US ethylene crackers were shut down at end-3Q17 due to hurricanes. Development of TE3 and PP3 projects are on track with 100% and 42% mechanical completion respectively. TE3’s targeted commercial launch date of 4Q17 remains intact despite a fire incident.


— TA Securities Holdings Bhd, Oct 27

@weavefinder....

The thing is, though we know their plant utilisation rate... but we dunno their selling rate.

i.e. If they produce 77% of their max capacity, does that means that they actually sell off 100% of those produced? (or 90%? or 110%, old stocks) ?

If they ramp up the plant utilisation to 90%, will they still managed to sell out 100% of that 90%?

FY 2015, their production volume is 2,701 KTA (sales volume is 1,985 KTA, 74%)
FY 2016, their production volume is 2,703 KTA (sales volume is 1,993 KTA, 74%)

Q2 FY 2017, production volume = 479 KTA (71% of 2,703/4 quarters) & sales is 367 KTA, 77%
Q3 FY 2017, production volume = 520 KTA (77% of 2,703/4 quarters) sales is 439 KTA, 84%

1) From the above, we have learnt that their sales is not 100% (mayb that is not 100% true cause they have various product, but tat is a simplified way to understand the situation). Meaning to say, even they ramp up the production to 100%, it is "useless" unless the sales/demand can catch up.

2) Their average quarter sales volume is about 500 KTA, meaning to said the Q2 & Q3 2017 is under the average, this might due to the oversupply of Petrochemical market, but the sales:production volume is higher than average 74%.


Based on the latest commentary of prospects,

a) We anticipate that the petrochemicals market will continue to be resilient in the near term with
demand growth for petrochemicals to outpace the rate of new supply additions in the region.[GOOD NEWS BUT WE DUNNO HOW TRUE IS THIS]

b) While olefins and derivative are expected to be slightly bearish as supply improved on the completion of regional cracker planned turnaround. [BAD NEWS]

c) Indonesia polyethylene plant load will remain low until polyethylene economics return. [BAD NEWS]

Therefore, i would say (WITHOUT BIAS & not HOO HAA & talk crap/sweet because i own this share) , even though WE ALL KNOW that their production volume is gonna ramp up due to no more maintenance and possibly new commencement of TE3, it does not guarantee that their net profit will be SUPERB. (but HIGHLY likely to be much better, but how much better is hard to justfiy/expect, mayb not even the management themselves.)

Afterall, they really really rely on the overall petrochemical supply & demand & price which is out of their control.

-------------------------------------------------------------

no such thing as ori/enlarged LCTitan, theres only 1.

@enning22, what new plants in Indonesia. tat 1 need more than 1 yr later. the new plant which is going to commence commercially is TE3, which is in Malaysia.

@speakup, what plant close down last month? do u really understand what is the situation?

Btw, LCTitan's margin is highly dependent on the Naphtha (raw material price) & PE, PP, BD, BZ (product selling price, which can be seen on pg 6 of their briefing).

The difference between product selling price & Naphtha is the crack.

From the observation, Oct 2017 is more or less like July 2017, except better BD gap, but has start narrowing in Oct. (Please note that for Jan - Mar 17, the BD crack are superb awesome, which believed are the reason of good profit for that Q).

In short, the existing crack/price are not so favorable (just similar to July 2017) to LCTitan.

I believe when the factory are back to normal, say 90% utilization rate, the PAT might reach about 350mil + assuming the crack spread are similiar.

However, it should be noted that utilization ration is not = profit.


[Note: Utilisation Rate for Q1 = 59%, Q2 = 71%, Q3 = 77%]
Rev Q1 = 1,915mil, Q2 = 1,776mil, Q3 = 2,016mil
Operating Profit Q1 = 389mil, Q2 = 146mi, Q3 = 240mil.

In short, i think the fundamental of the stock is JUST OK (definitely still long way to GOOD result) , more to kicks in after 6mths (operation of TE3).

There are few things to take note (non - business item) :
i) TRES is an unknown, for Q1 is +38.9mil, Q2 is -21.9mil, Q3 is -8.8mil
ii) Listing expenses tat has booked in is (79.5mil / 115mil), remaining 35mil.
iii) The net cash of RM 3 billion (due to proceeds from IPO), can get interest income of 26mil/quarter (which is quite significant)
iv) Loss in share of results of associates is Q1= - 2.5mil, Q2 = -16mil, Q3 = -18.6mil.
v) Foreign Exchange is Q1 = 3.6mil, Q2= 12.3mil, Q3 = 11.2mil

From the above, the non-business item is quite significant to LCtitan net profit. Each item can impact the net profit by 5-15%. What's lucky is, there are some + item and - item, ended up they are offsetting each other.

LCTitan has released their presentation slide/briefing on the Q3 result:
http://www.lottechem.my/investor/material.asp

What's more is,

LCTITAN use Naptha to produce ethylene (but they don't sell ethylene), they use the ethylene to re-produce polyethylene,

Therefore, it's abit complicated...... LCtitan actually only gain more if Polyethylene price is high.