ezra....


By not acknowledging X factor, under performance is not the only out come......it leads to incomplete assessment of the stock market and stock prices.

go ask anyone......anyone who has under performed in 2017 calls himself a value investor....it is just an excuse for under performance.

polluting your mind?
rubbish?


if acknowledging reality is polluting...you need more polluting.

As an example
in a bull market, a share has run up on speculation of injection of fantastic business. all rumors and speculations.
a value investor will say, forget it, it is too high already.

a Dynamic Investors knows all share prices have two components , the fundamental ( or intrinsic) value and the component attributable to other factors , collectively I call it X factor.

Once the 2 components have been isolated, identified and valued, it is easier to make good judgement calls.

It most cases, it is the X factor that forms the catalyst, the moving force for the share.

It gives a proper and complete understanding of share valuations. ..and why shares move up and down.

In most cases, the only reason why shares move up and down is due to the market's changing valuation of the X factor.

plane

let me tell you some thing

A lot of the quarterly profits of Petron is actually stock valuation profits....stock valuations have huge huge impact on quarterly results.....meaning.....a good quarter will be followed by a bad quarter...and vice versa.

plane

Petron and Pos.....both have gone up a lot. Frighteningly high.

I will sailang Pos while you sailang Petron....ok? deal?

I hear people say, X factor? But that is just speculating.


My answer....why not?

any thing about future events involves speculations. Better learn how to incorporate X factor into share valuations.

too bad you don't the intellect to understand X factor or even the maths to show you that value investors have lagged far behind the Dynamic Investors in 2017 thus far.




Ezra > May 13, 2017 01:17 PM | Report Abuse

Did you not just read what I wrote?

"If you cannot prove it, then there is no evidence supporting it's existence.
It becomes no different than talking on a piece of paper, or another hoax."

members of this forum...students of KC, value investors all over the world

if you pay more attention to X factor in the following equation,

share valuation = FA plus X factor

I guarantee you, you will gain more for the rest of 2017.

My job is done and I can take deserved rest.

Stubborn, obstinate, will go nowhere , and share market do not reward stubborn obstinate people ......do not reward mathematicians ....share market is a human endeavor, not a maths or physics problem to be solved.

I like Genting shareholders, not Genting customers.

donations needed

UMNO needs donations.

DRB, MMC, Westport

the richest Malay in the country.

also among the most boring shares in the country.

if he not careful, UMNO would like to nationalise him.

plane

don't be so silly

every single dollar this company is subject to government saying Yes.

we the consumers have a right to demand the government protect our interests and lower the price.

if this bull lasts till end of this year.....Tiong Nam investors would have wasted one year.

even EPF have given up and decided to sell it off.

go analyse the accounts properly and see what is wrong with this counter.

What can be taught becomes popular memes.
It is what that cannot be taught becomes priceless.

Myong, if you don't have the intellect to explore X factor, don't blame me...blame your genes or your education.

A good investor listens to the market, take lessons from it, have his own opinion, be steady not nervous, ....Malaysia is a land of opportunity, unlike NZ which is too unexciting for me.

kc

It is not about sein...although you are very sein yourself.

It is that value investors, ratios and formulas don't work, didn't work at least in 2017 so far.....Value investors are left far behind.....

Your fellow traveller....and Occam's Razor.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600122710.jsp


What worked in this environment?

Share value = Intrinsic value + - X factor.

That works very well for me, works very well for any practitioner.

Its the X factor, you fool.....says Shellock Homes.

a bystander is safe but unrewarding.

blessed is the one with the talent to charge in and charge out at the right time.

this kind of thing normally have a reversion to the mean...I say 20 sen EPS this Q.

How to retire rich is the objective.

Then must learn from those who have traveled the road successfully.

suggest to me the whole process is less than useful.



supersaiyan3 > May 12, 2017 09:21 PM | Report Abuse

According to your table, it should worth RM28.66? lol

no substance?
that is all the substance that is.
nothing else is relevant.


kelvin61
74 posts
Posted by kelvin61 > May 12, 2017 08:54 PM | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy, there is no substance

mark goh

two things that cannot be trusted....

mark Goh DCF and JJPTR.

kelvin

The bet on Jaks is they will deliver the IPP on schedule and according to plan....and make a lot of money for shareholders.

those no experience in stock market or no money should learn. ...and improve themselves.

calvin power...Dutaland up 5 sen

raid

you take the cake for the most ridiculous post besides the originator,

Neither datok Seri Cheah nor KYY needs these stuffs to drive Roll Royce......lol.

Having such Occam's razors is such a liability, this guy will never make it.




Posted by stockraider > May 12, 2017 07:45 PM | Report Abuse

Bcos mammy and kyy don do number crunche

Valunomics: Valuation insights for regular retail investors.


like that can cari makan already.......lol

this guy is a CFA student or IB analyst, ....but such skills don't give him any advantage.

Datuk Sri Cheah of Value Partners, Form Five education enough to be very successful in stock market.

not Renong...it is MDB Baru.

investment research consulting must be a lucrative business in this bull market......hahahahah

but I don't need to do any consulting...I can make enough money trading on my own account.

somebody mentioned Occam's razor and complications.

number crunchers make things complicated so they look more scientific and authoritative...and take you to holland at the same time.

If Air Asia is $ 1.54 and Top Glove is $ 2.70, it will be world war 3 already...and still don't need him.


kc...were you like that when you are younger and doing number crunching?

Just to give a bit more balance,
I have also seen IB DCF number crunching that can justify Gdex at PE > 100 and $ 3.00.

The marvels of DCF and number crunching......can arrive at any conclusion and still make it look scientific and authoritative.

This guy stands for all that is bad about number crunchers and why I hate this breed of people. This is because you cannot number crunch or value a share without business sense.

To him...Air Asia is $ 1.54
Top Glove is $ 2.70.


a tail wagging its dog and they call it science.

he no experience and no money should not criticize Mr Maverick and his bet on Jaks.

The bet on Jaks is they will deliver the IPP on schedule and according to plan....and make a lot of money for shareholders.

this is the proper function of the stockmarket.

it is to make sure BN menang




BN_menang > May 12, 2017 10:18 AM | Report Abuse

Media drop 8 sen and Rev Asia drop 20 sen from last week. No merger better for both co?

hahahaha, in that case, KLSE can change name to 2MDB.


y BN_menang > May 12, 2017 10:15 AM | Report Abuse

If read Bursa announcement both parties can still cancel.

details matter.....details suggest this is PN 17 stock soon.



leslieroycarter > May 12, 2017 10:14 AM | Report Abuse

All r not lost yet.

sell both Media and Rev.....

Media because mixing politics and business is not good. They bot the thing for elections , not for profits.

Rev because Rev is PN 17 stock soon.

rev

no need any theory, just sell based on facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/china-s-246-billion-takeover-spree-is-crumbling-as-sellers-balk

priorities change.


d by gushan > May 12, 2017 02:27 AM | Report Abuse

crec which is owned by the state govt bid for it bcoz it was part of a much bigger plan of the govt

Ekovest has negative X factor....even funds will follow datu Harris.

whether it is retail or wholesale, ....
the best shares has X factor.

I think there is a lot of value in technology shares, new economy shares, RHB 25 jewels, steel, banks, finance....

and Mahathir cronies like Vincent Tan, DRB , Mui is not good hunting ground.

value....lots of value out there but calvin does not seem to have the talent to seek them out except what calvin calls old wealth. ...mahathir cronies, mostly.

another Mahathir son venture. in Najib era

another Mahathir son venture.




choop818 > May 12, 2017 01:28 AM | Report Abuse

Who controlls OPCOM?

well, we are not Gods, so we do not know the future traffic....

but we can place our bets as investors.

exactly


=====

8 just look at TRX site progresss. can predict how "FAST" can bandar malaysia become realistic

LOL====

In China, private company don't play backside of state company.

anyway, preparing a bid is not over night stuff.