OTB v MoneyMakers+ Gang From your comments , needless to say you guys hate each other. It would do all of us in i3 here a great favour if you guys were to meet outside and settle once and for all. We want to read good sane comments on HY and not your cursing and swearing at each other. Its not going to end. The readers here are not naive not to know who talk Big, talk cock, who like to boast, brag,show off, etc.
So do us a favour and settle your score outside men to man! TQVM for your cooperation.
@ probability.. Just needed to repost here. It is real and hopefully no one miss this ! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis
(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter) .........................
Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
@Zhuge_Liang "Those unrealised losses are none of my concern, they will eventually become zero."
You estimated your EPS of RM7 for FY 2022. Perhaps you can show your forecasted proforma P&L for QTR 30.9.2022 to highlight what are the figures in your "other Comprehensive Income / (Expense) section. It will be interesting to see what is your 'Cash Flow hedge" and " Cost of hedging " figure. TQ
Why is Hengyuan head south despite an explosive set of Q2 2022 result? Imagine an EPS of RM222.49 per quarter and yet the share price tank instead of going limit up! I believe the reasons for the dismal share performance are : 1. The investing public are not convinced of the sustainability of its profit. 2. The monster RM1 Billion "other comprehensive Income /expense " item in the P&L which very few understand and very difficult to be convinced. 3. The worry in the investors mind is that the Q3 2022 PAT could be RM3, but the monster in 2 above could swell to RM2 billion? At end of the day the high EPS might not be enough to cover the monster item in 2 above. 4. No IB wants to touch the stock. Not even one is covering the stock now ! 5. I am told we have sifu here who is a remisier is unable to convinced his own broking house to cover the stock. How is he going to convinced others to buy this Gem ?? 6. The promoters are arguing with a wall of non believers who have differing views and seems to have different agenda. 7. The company is not interested to engage the shareholders and the investor relationship department is non existence. 8. To be fair , the overall market is shitty, and any good stock also face some kind of selling pressure. Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise for the believers and knowledgeable to collect at cheaper prices and wait for another explosive set of result? Hopefully Q3 2022 PAT will silent all critics ? Meanwhile , hang on to the stock until end of November for a happy 2023.
I was told OTB is a TA comes first investor. He is also very discipline. If that is the case , then obviously he has cut his position as the stock has broken the support line?? no?? Then again as HY is reporting super EPS and upcoming EPS is also believed to be super good, then there is no problem hanging on. Nevertheless, even as I believe in HY, this stock is looking like a mistery to me now. Though the sifus are presenting a good write up here, the management is not engaging the investors of its hedging policy. None of the IBs is covering the stock. Obviously the investors are nervous and ust dump the stock.
The market need to understand HY is doing Hedging and not engage in speculative derivative trading then there is hope for HY. HY should come out to address their hedging policy in greater details. Perhaps they are eyeing to take it private??
Why are we arguing? EPS of RM2.22 is not Fake ! Divi of 10 sen after any years is not Fake . Paying Income Tax of RM229M is not Fake. Going Limit up tomorrow is likely ! Probably going to be a darling stock soon .
Perhaps those who believe HY is doing pure hedging by the book will benefit from holding on to HY to see it rise eventually if not tomorrow. Those who think HY is doing derivatives trading will shun the stock and regret later.
The market just cannot ignore the EPS of RM2.22. The logical movement is limit up. With Q3 also in the bag now, you can't stop the tsunami. It is tsunami on steriod come 1 sept . It is less than 24 hours from now.
Bought my last batch of HY @ RM4.08 on 18.8.2022 and went to my rainforest retreat ignoring Bursa to chill. What a pleasant surprise to see HY is moving where it should be heading to. Many thanks to Probability, Johnzhang, SSlee and all sifus who posted facts and figures and news n the industry to give confidence to hang on. Whatever Q2 result is announced today or tomorrow, its going to be super ! TQVM Cheers !
I thought Probability was giving up HY for a moment. haha. I was looking at the analysis of the sifus here left ,right and center again and again, and the only conclusion I arrived at is to buy more. You cannot get better than this !! The crack spread is too super attractive to ignore.
as at 30.6.2019 - Kossan is in a net debt position of abt RM120M. as at 30.6.2022 - Kossan has a net CASH of about RM2 Billion Kossan can probably stay in the game comfortably against other gloves makers.
As we are only 2 weeks away before end of August, we can safely say that Q3 explosive result is in the bag now. So we are staring at Q2 and Q3 2022 eps of at least RM1 per quarter. Logically that should be the case.
ty Y Recommendation Do not sell Hengyuan, buy and hold until the Q2 2022 result is released to make a final decision. I believe the target price of Hengyuan will be very high, the target price should be higher than the all-time high price at 19.50. The final decision to buy is always yours.
You sounded like OTB ??haha.. So what is his take on HY now? I think he is unable to predict the derivative losses?? Thats is the biggest mystery now. @Probability did a good job explaining HY hedging . lets wait for another 3-4 weeks and we will get the answer.
Everybodyhuat @paktua73 I suspected the same that since 2020 there are some cartel IBs battling these gurus, hitting hard on the stocks that they recommend. Good stocks turned to dust but they don't care, as long as gurus all failed. Retailers became the biggest casualties and the whole KLSE weakened. Usually, chinaman companies are attacked the most.
Don't be surprised that there are a few of these agents here. Repetitively attacking nonstop daily and if you check their profiles, their comments are centred to just condemning only. No liking but wish the stock dead. So happy when the stock price drop, so happy retailers lose. Malaysia bodoh boleh ya. Can you spot the agent provocateurs?
There are a variety of characters in i3. This is to be expected. If the stock one recommend can prove the nay sayers wrong, then the stock will still fly. If HY can post a PAT of RM500 - RM600 M in Q2 2022 as projected by sifu here then the stock would not be at current price of 4.17. We have less than 2 months to find out.
Those gangho sifus who preach " Be greedy when others are fearful" and "will buy more if price come down" has disappeared? No ? I think they are a bit scared now/ :=) But I believe they will be back soon, perhaps n the next few days when the coast is clearer. To cut loss or to hold is a million dollar question.
No need to argue, by end of August all will be revealed. You either shoot yourself for not buying or be happy with yourself for not buying. No venture no gain. However, opportunity only knock ONCE and only ONCE !!
OTB Singapore Gasoil (Diesel) (platts) Dubai (platts) crack spread Jun 2022 : USD66.38 Jul 2022 : USD70.90 Aug 2022 : USD67.04 ---------------- The crack spread of diesel suddenly increase from USD66.38 to USD70.90 after today (30/6/2022). What will be the share price of Hengyuan after today (30/6/2022) ? Will the share price of Hengyuan limit up tomorrow (1/7/2022) ? Answer : I do not know, let Mr Market tell us the share price tomorrow.
Q2 and Q3 2022 results will be fantastic if you look at the crack spread of diesel. Hengyuan is a complex refinery, it will able to convert 30% fuel oil to diesel. There is no wastage at all. The refined margin of diesel is better than gasoline. Thank you. ==================================================================
I like your optimism. I am only hoping for RM5.50 tomorrow not limit up. I presume based on TA its time to buy now?
A friend told me he is confused by his Sifu. Sifu told him HY is Very undervalued now. But the best time to buy is early August ?? Now is below RM5, wait for RM7 in August to buy ? Yes, this sifu want to cover his backside.