If the Q3 2022 result give an EPS of RM2 and the NTA rise by RM7 as predicted, then the market will react accordingly and all will be happy.

@ probability

TQ for the explaination.

@ probability
"Expect the net change in Asset (asset - liabilities) to balloon to: RM 2,300,000,000

OCI net asset will be: (1.5 Billion) + 2.3 Billion
= 800 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum :

can you elightened this part of your posting? TQVM

OTB v MoneyMakers+ Gang
From your comments , needless to say you guys hate each other. It would do all of us in i3 here a great favour if you guys were to meet outside and settle once and for all. We want to read good sane comments on HY and not your cursing and swearing at each other. Its not going to end.
The readers here are not naive not to know who talk Big, talk cock, who like to boast, brag,show off, etc.

So do us a favour and settle your score outside men to man! TQVM for your cooperation.

@ probability.. Just needed to repost here. It is real and hopefully no one miss this !
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis

(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................

Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl

Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................

= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)



Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................

Refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl

Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)



Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR

PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81


probability

14,331 posts

Posted by probability > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Cost of Hedging Reserve at above mark-to-market pricing was 100 million gain at end of Q1.

As such for Q3 results, NTA will increase RM 4 assuming closing of Q3 (30th Sep) is at above crack spread level..

@Zhuge_Liang "Those unrealised losses are none of my concern, they will eventually become zero."

You estimated your EPS of RM7 for FY 2022. Perhaps you can show your forecasted proforma P&L for QTR 30.9.2022 to highlight what are the figures in your "other Comprehensive Income / (Expense) section.
It will be interesting to see what is your 'Cash Flow hedge" and " Cost of hedging " figure. TQ

Its kind of sad we have many mentally sick clowns posting sick comments in this forum. I am sure we can do better than this !

Why is Hengyuan head south despite an explosive set of Q2 2022 result?
Imagine an EPS of RM222.49 per quarter and yet the share price tank instead of going limit up! I believe the reasons for the dismal share performance are :
1. The investing public are not convinced of the sustainability of its profit.
2. The monster RM1 Billion "other comprehensive Income /expense " item in the P&L which very few understand and very difficult to be convinced.
3. The worry in the investors mind is that the Q3 2022 PAT could be RM3, but the monster in 2 above could swell to RM2 billion? At end of the day the high EPS might not be enough to cover the monster item in 2 above.
4. No IB wants to touch the stock. Not even one is covering the stock now !
5. I am told we have sifu here who is a remisier is unable to convinced his own broking house to cover the stock. How is he going to convinced others to buy this Gem ??
6. The promoters are arguing with a wall of non believers who have differing views and seems to have different agenda.
7. The company is not interested to engage the shareholders and the investor relationship department is non existence.
8. To be fair , the overall market is shitty, and any good stock also face some kind of selling pressure.
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise for the believers and knowledgeable to collect at cheaper prices and wait for another explosive set of result? Hopefully Q3 2022 PAT will silent all critics ? Meanwhile , hang on to the stock until end of November for a happy 2023.

It would be good for both the company and the investors if the company's investor relation unit is more engaging and responsive.

very good effort by @probability to put up this article. Be patient to allow the market to digest it. TA is poor now, hopefully it will recover.

CharlesT
I think OTB likely to cut some losses in HY...

If he hasnt cut, then all his followers shall be more worried.....

============================================================

I was told OTB is a TA comes first investor. He is also very discipline.
If that is the case , then obviously he has cut his position as the stock has broken the support line?? no??
Then again as HY is reporting super EPS and upcoming EPS is also believed to be super good, then there is no problem hanging on.
Nevertheless, even as I believe in HY, this stock is looking like a mistery to me now. Though the sifus are presenting a good write up here, the management is not engaging the investors of its hedging policy. None of the IBs is covering the stock. Obviously the investors are nervous and ust dump the stock.

The market need to understand HY is doing Hedging and not engage in speculative derivative trading then there is hope for HY.
HY should come out to address their hedging policy in greater details.
Perhaps they are eyeing to take it private??

Thank you @probability. You deserve a good rest for the celebratory firework tomorrow.

HY is a polished diamond and yet some think its only an ordinary stone?

Why are we arguing? EPS of RM2.22 is not Fake ! Divi of 10 sen after any years is not Fake . Paying Income Tax of RM229M is not Fake. Going Limit up tomorrow is likely ! Probably going to be a darling stock soon .

Perhaps those who believe HY is doing pure hedging by the book will benefit from holding on to HY to see it rise eventually if not tomorrow. Those who think HY is doing derivatives trading will shun the stock and regret later.

The market just cannot ignore the EPS of RM2.22. The logical movement is limit up. With Q3 also in the bag now, you can't stop the tsunami. It is tsunami on steriod come 1 sept . It is less than 24 hours from now.

Probably my longest wait for a QTR result... Cheers.

Bought my last batch of HY @ RM4.08 on 18.8.2022 and went to my rainforest retreat ignoring Bursa to chill. What a pleasant surprise to see HY is moving where it should be heading to.
Many thanks to Probability, Johnzhang, SSlee and all sifus who posted facts and figures and news n the industry to give confidence to hang on. Whatever Q2 result is announced today or tomorrow, its going to be super ! TQVM Cheers !

looks like most anxiously waiting for the Q2 results before making any move. Probably those who wanted to buy have already bought and those given up on HY have already sold. Its awaiting game. :)

KYY curi curi buy HY ke??

I thought Probability was giving up HY for a moment. haha.
I was looking at the analysis of the sifus here left ,right and center again and again, and the only conclusion I arrived at is to buy more. You cannot get better than this !!
The crack spread is too super attractive to ignore.

as at 30.6.2019 - Kossan is in a net debt position of abt RM120M.
as at 30.6.2022 - Kossan has a net CASH of about RM2 Billion
Kossan can probably stay in the game comfortably against other gloves makers.

As we are only 2 weeks away before end of August, we can safely say that Q3 explosive result is in the bag now.
So we are staring at Q2 and Q3 2022 eps of at least RM1 per quarter. Logically that should be the case.

The selling is way overdone. Share price could soon be equivalent to cash per share.

Not many days now before the Q2 result is out. Probably the last chance to buy for an opportunity of a life time ! I think OTB is probably right.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Never understand the relationship between the above chart and financial performance of HY, Do you??

ty Y
Recommendation
Do not sell Hengyuan, buy and hold until the Q2 2022 result is released to make a final decision.
I believe the target price of Hengyuan will be very high, the target price should be higher than the all-time high price at 19.50.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

Thank you.

寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人

=================================================================

You sounded like OTB ??haha.. So what is his take on HY now? I think he is unable to predict the derivative losses?? Thats is the biggest mystery now.
@Probability did a good job explaining HY hedging . lets wait for another 3-4 weeks and we will get the answer.

@NatsukoMishima
Which part of the calculation you think is BS ??

The gross profit may be explosive in Q2 but the biggest unknown is still the derivatives losses. That is probably why it is holding the share price from performing.

I wander what is OTB's estimated EPS now? Obviously he is not going to say as he has left I3 for good ?

Barring major surprises HY should report an EPS of at lease RM2 ???

ada dengar juga Q2 result akan meletup. Mungkin benar.

Everybodyhuat
@paktua73
I suspected the same that since 2020 there are some cartel IBs battling these gurus, hitting hard on the stocks that they recommend. Good stocks turned to dust but they don't care, as long as gurus all failed. Retailers became the biggest casualties and the whole KLSE weakened. Usually, chinaman companies are attacked the most.

Don't be surprised that there are a few of these agents here. Repetitively attacking nonstop daily and if you check their profiles, their comments are centred to just condemning only. No liking but wish the stock dead. So happy when the stock price drop, so happy retailers lose. Malaysia bodoh boleh ya. Can you spot the agent provocateurs?

=================================================================

There are a variety of characters in i3. This is to be expected. If the stock one recommend can prove the nay sayers wrong, then the stock will still fly. If HY can post a PAT of RM500 - RM600 M in Q2 2022 as projected by sifu here then the stock would not be at current price of 4.17.
We have less than 2 months to find out.

Why is uncle writing this article? He wants you to sell so he can buy cheap, that is my thinking.

Those gangho sifus who preach " Be greedy when others are fearful" and "will buy more if price come down" has disappeared?
No ? I think they are a bit scared now/ :=) But I believe they will be back soon, perhaps n the next few days when the coast is clearer. To cut loss or to hold is a million dollar question.

OTB
Warren Buffetts still continue to add position on OXY.
Spiking inflation has severe consequences for your cash savings.
============================================================

Are you still buying HY on weakness?

Thank you OTB for coming out to defend your Q2 2022 profit projection. Otherwise people would think you are just another con artiste. I agree is too late to cut now. Looks like 4.27 is under threat.

Retesting RM4.27. If that is crack, it could be down for a while?? Any comments from any super chartist?

Indeed buy now , Its cheap. Want to wait for RM3? you can wait forever

Is HY being cornered? If so, we can see RM 20 when the time is right?

Why do some people spend 24/7 posting the same message? We hear you , reserve your time for something more productive.

If syndicate control HY then TA is control by them. Hence any TA readings is useless?

No need to argue, by end of August all will be revealed. You either shoot yourself for not buying or be happy with yourself for not buying. No venture no gain.
However, opportunity only knock ONCE and only ONCE !!

OTB
Singapore Gasoil (Diesel) (platts) Dubai (platts) crack spread
Jun 2022 : USD66.38
Jul 2022 : USD70.90
Aug 2022 : USD67.04
----------------
The crack spread of diesel suddenly increase from USD66.38 to USD70.90 after today (30/6/2022).
What will be the share price of Hengyuan after today (30/6/2022) ?
Will the share price of Hengyuan limit up tomorrow (1/7/2022) ?
Answer : I do not know, let Mr Market tell us the share price tomorrow.

Q2 and Q3 2022 results will be fantastic if you look at the crack spread of diesel.
Hengyuan is a complex refinery, it will able to convert 30% fuel oil to diesel.
There is no wastage at all.
The refined margin of diesel is better than gasoline.
Thank you.
==================================================================

I like your optimism. I am only hoping for RM5.50 tomorrow not limit up. I presume based on TA its time to buy now?

Good point OTB. Do you ONLY enjoy the full benefit of increased crack spread if the contract size is small?? How so? TQ

A friend told me he is confused by his Sifu. Sifu told him HY is Very undervalued now. But the best time to buy is early August ?? Now is below RM5, wait for RM7 in August to buy ?
Yes, this sifu want to cover his backside.

Beginning of uptrend I guess. KYY please do not come back !

For sure KYY already already cut loss. ?

What ever it is, I think HY is a Very good buy now.