Looks like nearing selling climax...due for rebound soon.

EVERGREEN is a " TURNAROUND STOCK"...Turnaround stocks usually give HIGHEST CAPITAL GAIN

FIRST TP@1.45. IF HIT TP, EVERGREEN price will go higher.

EVERGREEN TP@1.45

Looks like the long price consolidation from Jan 2016 onward is nearing its end.It had consolidated for more than 1.5 years.

The future driver for its next price direction will be the upcoming QR in August.

The goal of CAN SLIM strategy is to discover leading stocks before they make major price advances..Not after major price advance..lol

"X factor" Drivers for higher Earnings:
- Reduce existing production cost to increase margins
- Increase throughput /production efficiencies
- Capex in RTA to produce and sell new products at higher margins

Higher Margins will yield higher earnings.
What matters most is " Higher Margins ==> Increasing Earnings"

Key "X" factors r the "DRIVERS FOR HIGHER EARNINGS"
EVERGREEN has the "X" factors as per above defination.

The owner operator's ongoing driving of business action plans to reduce production cost, secure steady supply of raw materials to drive up production efficiency, improve margins whilst sustaining its competitive edge in existing products plus investing in capex to sell new higher value added RTA products demanded by the Market will yield positive results in the medium to longer term n generate positive operational cashflows to pare down debts in future.

The strategic actions currently being executed by owner operator will yield higher gross margins n higher earnings which will result in generating positive cashfows in the near future n the future years. Debt repayment is not an issue as the future positive cashflows from operations will fund to reduce it.

Positive strategic actions currently undertaken by Evergreen management will yield higher gross margins as
- cost rationalisation reduces cost in existing production lines n sustain it's competitiveness
- new capex on RTA will yield higher gross margins will drive up significant incremental top n bottom line growth

The owner operators r doing their utmost to drive up both top n bottom line n they will succeed in doing so.

The most important important factor that drives up future earnings in any company is whether the controlling shareholders has a focussed strategy that adds value to the long term biz n earnings growth of the company.

Evergreen's owner operator is now executing the right strategy in reducing cost in existing product lines n investing in capex to produce n sell higher margins RTA products in the near future. The Capex investment will generate future operational cash flows which pages down gearing.

Ongoing mgt action to reduce existing production costs to improve margins n investing in capex to produce new higher margins RTA products will contribute towards revenue n higher earnings per share in future.

I have confidence that the Controlling shareholders who r owner operators will deliver higher earnings for Evergreen in not too distant future.

Stock price look to future earnings.

My take is the future earnings for Evergreen will be better than past earnings. The share price is slowly factoring in the future earnings driver.

If u r convinced that the future earnings will be better..just buy n hold. If u r not convinced..just sell n look for a better share.

“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”

“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”

“To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

“If his forces are united, separate them.”

“It is what you don't expect... that most needs looking for.”
― Neal Stephenson, Anathem

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/how-saudi-arabia-and-allies-strong-armed-qatar-blindsided-us/articleshow/59047010.cms

http://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ibrahimkaragul/the-qatar-crisis-tehran-attack-preparation-for-mecca-wars-2038371

3 BASIC REASONS NOT TO TRADE BREAKOUTS

1.False Breakouts
False breakouts occur when price moves beyond the previously established price resistance , but then retreats back to within the previous price range.

2.Corrections to Breakout Point
Half of breakouts that occur retrace back to the breakout point or below

3.Explosions or Big Moves are Rare

CB revenue had not increased higher than RM 100.7 million since Q 1 2016

However its EPS had almost quadrupled from 2.62 cent in Q1 2016 to 10.6 cents in Q1 2017 eventhough its revenue of RM 97 million is below Q 1 2016 amount.

Can this EPS of 10.6 cents be repeated in future quarterly results in view of the reported fact below that lofty international steel price levels had started to soften and is expected to face further downward adjustment in the next several months arising from China dropping its prices drastically. In view of this, can the high EPS of 10.6 cents be repeated in the future?

Moreover major shareholders recently had disposed their shares.Is this an indication that perhaps CB share price had already peaked?

Please find below section B3 of CB Quarterly report commentary

B3 Current year prospects and progress on previously announced revenue or profit forecast
a) Prospects for 2017 Of late, the lofty international steel price levels have started to soften and is expected to face further downward adjustment in the next several months as a result of China dropping their prices drastically due to declining raw material prices and higher inventory levels. Most major mills followed suit accordingly. However, it is difficult to use the Chinese price movement as a bellwhether for prices as the trend does not always co-relate closely to fundamentals. The recent cyclone in Australia may give pause to the softer price trend as a result of the sharp spike in the price of coking coal, but the popular view is that it will be an anomaly and that price weakness will persist in the medium term. On the domestic front, the local steel industry remains challenging as the market adopts a cautious stance, underpinned by the slow contracting of governmental infrastructure projects as well as delayed development of real estate projects impacting demand for steel products. Additionally, local steel prices have begun to experience some easing pressure as most dealers refrained from stocking up their inventories with the volatile and unpredictable price trend in China, while manufacturers compete to clear existing inventories. The catalyst that will drive demand for steel products and building materials will continue to hinge upon the steady deployment of governmental infrastructure projects and active development of real estate projects.

With the challenges faced above, the Group have taken appropriate measures to remain competitive and relevant.

AYS achieved the max EPS of 2.82 cents in Q1 2016. Since then its EPS had halved and had ranged fom 1.38 to 1.68 cents since Q1 2016.

Its Revenue had declined from RM 146 million in Q4 2015 to RM 127.49 million for latest quarter.

From TA perspective its share price is toppish.Its previous high of 0.59 cents was achieved on July 16 2012...almost 5 years ago.

As such, one ought to ask a few pertinent questions as follows
- What is the growth prospect of the industry that AYS is in?
- What is the chance of AYS achieving higher EPS in the future given that its eps had almost halved since Q1 2016
- What will be the future driver/drivers for higher EPS in the future


Please find attached the comment taken from the latest quarterly report.

16. PROSPECTS

The steel industry remains challenged by volatility of crude oil and raw material prices, oversupply in global steel industry that lead to volatility of international steel price and instability of the Ringgit against major world currencies. Despite the widespread unfavourable situations, the domestic requirement for steel related materials would be driven primarily by various revitalisation measures through the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). Against this backdrop, the Group will continue to exercise caution in managing the businesses, focus on its cost management and resource optimization efforts so that the Group's performance will remain positive in the coming financial year.

Most people are overconfident about their own abilities. That is probably a good thing. But we would be horrified if a physician's aide engaged in heart surgery.

Andrew Lo

Great investors need to have the right combination of intuition, business sense and investment talent.

Andrew Lo

It's important to understand how people perceive risk, and how that translates into investment behavior.

Andrew Lo

Ideas percolate. Through natural selection, the best ones survive.

Andrew Lo

Past 9 days was a good opportunity to buy EVERGREEN below 0.895. Very high chance EVERGREEN will move higher past 0.895 for a long time.

EVERGREEN price had already discounted all known info. Now its share price is starting to factor in its strengthening core comptencies, much reduced capex in 2017 and additional new RTA products revenue n profit contribution.

This is just the beginning of the reversal up in its share price.

First TP=1.49

First TP=1.49. If can hit TP, it can go higher.

EVERGREEN will outperform Hevea.

TP=1.49

"When we hate our enemies, we are
giving them power over us:

power over our sleep, our appetites,
our blood pressure, our health, and our happiness.

Our enemies would dance with joy if only
they knew how they were worrying us,
lacerating us, and getting even with us!

Our hate is not hurting them at all,
but our hate is turning our own days
and nights into a hellish turmoil"

Dale Carnegie

"Hatred is a feeling which leads to the extinction of values"

Jose Ortega y Gasset

"Whenever you choose to carry resentment and hatred,you are shouldering an immense burden that damages your happiness, and often your health.

Does it matter that your resentment and hatred are "justified"?

Only you suffer - not the person you resent"

Jonathan Lockwood Huie

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition"

Steve Jobs

"Each person has inside a basic decency and goodness. If he listens to it and acts on it, he is giving a great deal of what it is the world needs most. It is not complicated but it takes courage. It takes courage for a person to listen to his own goodness and act on it"

Pablo Casals

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

Albert Einstein

"Great investors need to have the right combination of intuition, business sense and investment talent." - Andrew Lo

Is this article "How not to do Valuation" akin to much ado about nothing or "cannot see the wood from the trees"?

Nevertheless I do like the conclusion though which aptly sums up this article

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” - Richard Feynman

Fooling oneself in this article is going about the convoluted way in thinking that a clear message had been brought across but ended up in opaqueness.

There are two basic topics here which was not addressed to adequately
- Basis of determining Intrinsic Valuation
- Efficiency of capital usage vs its cost of capital

I would not wish to dwell into the topic of determining intrinsic valuation. However I am rather intrigued by the writers discussion on efficiency of capital usage without reference to its cost of capital.

I am rather surprised on why ROCE was not brought into this article.

As some of us may very well know, the return on capital employed measures the proportion of adjusted earnings to the amount of capital and debt required for a business to function. 

For a company to remain in business for the long term, its return on capital employed should be higher than its cost of capital

ROCE is commonly used to compare the efficiency of capital usage of businesses within the same industry( I presume the writer is comparing A & B within the same industry)

ROCE is a better measure than return on equity, because ROCE shows how well a company is using both its equity and debt to generate a return whereas ROE ignores debt.

"The only real valuable thing is intuition" 
    
Albert Einstein

"Often you have to rely on intuition"

Bill Gates

"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."

Phillip Fisher

"Know what you own, and know why you own it."

Peter Lynch

Evergreen is still a downtrending stock. Where is the bottom? I noticed that there are some value investors here who rode this stock down. I presume they would have bought it at higher prices.

Some may view them as TRUE FAITHFULS and Traders may view them as DUMB ASS for riding it down.I have made good money with this stock though...Bought in during Q3 2014 and sold out near peak and at peak prices.

Perhaps the downtrend direction for this stock may be ending soon as recent buy ins by majority shareholders maybe the signal.

Jaks corrected today. Good opportunity for those to buy in or add more today.

Jaks powering up now
Last chance to get on board

Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing

Warren Buffett

The difference between stupidity and genuis is that genius has its limits.

Only two things are infinte, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former.

"Albert Einstein"

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool rather than to speak out and remove all doubts

Abraham Lincoln

Great investors need to have the right combination of intuition, business sense and investment talent.

Andrew Lo

When in life you have to put up with mean & hateful people
Think of them as sandpaper
They may scratch you & Rub you the wrong way...
But eventually - YOU end up smooth & polished.
The sandpaper - Is just going to be worn out & ugly
Cast away as trash....

I am thankful for the difficult people that pops up
they have shown me exactly who I do not want to be.

A negative thinker can never succeed in life as every opportunity is a great difficulty to him.

People who have no life will always try to start drama in yours.

Superinvestor KYY had achieved a consistent capital appreciation of 500% on his past investments.

KYY had aggressively acquired substantial direct stakes in JAKS recently to knock off ALP as the biggest shareholder holding direct equity stake in JAKS. This was achieved in a remarkably short time frame and Mr KYY could so so with such speed as he has got the funds to buy aggressively and perhaps the fragmented shareholding structure accord him the "golden opportunity to buy value".

Why did KYY switched into an aggressive acquisition of JAKS shares in such as short time span? What "VALUE" did KYY see in JAKS that others may not see?

Will JAKS see a 500% capital appreciation in the future years based on his past successful trak record?

BURSA latest info of direct equity ownership by major shareholders of JAKS as of March 1st 2017 are as follows:

Koon Yew Yin's direct interest : 11.716% stake(51,358,300 shares)
Ang Lam Poah's direct interest : 9.159%stake(40,147,902 shares)

Mr Koon Yew Yin is now the largest shareholder who holds direct equity stake in JAKS. Mr Ang, formerly the largest direct equity shareholder, has dropped to second place.

Mr Koon Yew Yin had acquired substantial shares of JAKS( 6,974,500 shares ) on Feb 28th when JAKS undergo a major correction.

Volume today had thinned down substantially as selling pressure abated.

So...What will most likely happen next???