Say something since no one is ....

I think there will be at least a slow down, and when the trade war talk breaks down, there will be very slow growth or minor worldwide recession. Kind of -0.5 to 0.5% sort of thing. By then world stock market will be very bad. Malaysia will still be ok because of our largest budget spending in history. You will thank LGE for keeping us alive.

I do not agree on your view on reason for trade war, at all. China has promised to do a lot when they join WTO, and in a lot of other occasions too. They just think cheating = winning. I can't understand how is such a culture has dominant Chinese thinking, but I know that is the reason Chinese has been suffering for the last 200 years.

So, Trump wants China to fulfill everything China has promised before giving anything to China. China thinks that's way too much because they never keep their promise. So, the deal must fell apart and world economy will suffer.

(North Korea has also cheated U.S. many times. So Trump was giving no aid until all nuclear structures is gone. But stupid South Korea has provided, so now North Korea get the resources they want, eventually no deal).

I continue to like Airasia because of:

i. Higher efficiency due to a) higher utilisation of aircrafts, b) use of Big Data for maintenance and route planning etc, c) replacement of older aircrafts using newer models (which will expand capacity at the same time reduce fuel consumption
These will result in higher gross margin.

ii. Profit taking on assets. a) aircraft sales, b) non-core assets such as Expedia.

iii. IPO of Malaysia Airasia. Malaysia Airasia is now a subsidiary of Airasia Group Berhad after major corporate exercises. The main purpose is to list Malaysia Airasia as this is the cash cow of the whole Airasia group, unlike other subsidiaries.

iv. Dual Listing? Secondary listing? Tony Fernandez has mentioned he would like to list Airasia Group Berhad in other market, possibly Hong Kong. He mentioned he has hoped to get it done by 30 April 2017, because that's his birthday.
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/13/airasia-to-list-in-hong-kong/
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/11/airasia-eyes-hk-listing-as-it-expands-in-north-asia/

The purpose of such exercise is to increase valuation of AAGB. 5 times PE in KLCI is just ridiculous.

Airasia will become a textbook case study one day, a masterpiece of working hard to improving valuation.

17 is behaving more and more like BWC.

BWC's target Icon8888, so everyone is seen as gang of Icon8888 from his point of view. Funny enough, BWC also blame "Icon8888 and gang" for over-promoting Airasia.

OMG! Now i understand. 17 is BWC!!!!

Just passing by! Saw the ad on TV by the CEO, look through the annual reports and saw Ooi Guan Hoe as director. Ooi Guan Hoe was in Xingquan, must be cheater or dumb a.s.s.

BWC/Investo/xxx is gone and yet i am still here. Lol

"we are going to special dividend those things out"

"“In our estimate, the latter two are worth RM1.03/share, if the entire proceeds are paid out as dividends,” it said."

What is that means?

17, you can start hating me now.

Fernandes: Non-core assets sale to fund special dividends
He says the stakes are in food, engineering and duty-free businesses

StarBiz1 Nov 2017By B.K. SIDHU bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: AirAsia Bhd shares rose about 5% after its co-founder said that the airline plans to sell more stakes in its non-airline businesses to fund special dividends for shareholders.

AirAsia shares gained 16 sen yesterday to close at RM3.34.

Tan Sri Tony Fernandes, the co-founder and group CEO of AirAsia, told Reuters in Singapore yesterday that “we are going to special dividend those things out”.

Fernandes was talking about selling more stakes in its food, engineering and duty-free businesses.

“There is a whole pipeline of those assets. We do joint ventures (JVs) and eventually we will dispose of those JVs. They are not core. But the relationship will always stay,” Fernandes said.

This is not the first time Fernandes has said that he wants to sell stakes in AirAsia’s noncore assets, having first spoken about it more than a year ago.

On Monday, AirAsia said it had entered into a JV deal with Singapore’s SATS Ground Services Singapore Pte Ltd for ground-handling services in Malaysia and Terminal 4 Changi.

It will also look for opportunities for ground-handling services in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and with third-party airlines.

Analysts are positive about the JV with SATS, as it not only helps AirAsia unlock the value of its assets, but also helps in improving its ground-handling services in terms of cost and efficiencies.

“The JVs and partnerships would further increase transparency, accountability and efficiency as AirAsia strives to create One AirAsia,” said an industry player.

AirAsia will book in an exceptional one-off gain of RM365.7mil and cash proceeds of RM372.2mil from the JV with SATS.

The deal is expected to be completed by end-November.

Kenanga Research said “we potentially see a round of special dividends of up to 11 sen per share (assuming a 100% pay-out on gains of RM365.7mil)”.

“Our 100% dividend payout assumption is in line with management’s promise to pay out proceeds of its business disposal and we note that AirAsia had previously paid out 100% dividends on its 50% stake sale of AACE (Insurance unit) worth RM429.3mil back in August 2017.”

CIMB Research said “we are raising our target price to RM3.67 a share, adding a special dividend per share (DPS) of 11 sen arising from the sale of Ground Team Red Sdn Bhd, taking the expected total special DPS to RM1.27.”

The DPS of RM1.27 is based on several transactions being concluded.

CIMB Research added that on Aug 25, AirAsia had proposed to sell its 50% interest in AACOE (pilot and crew training school) to CAE for US$100mil (13 sen/share), with RM304.8mil in a one-off gain, also expected to be completed by end-November.

AirAsia is still negotiating the sale of around a 70% stake in Asia Aviation Capital Ltd (aircraft leasing arm), at a whole-company valuation of some US$1bil, and also a sale of its remaining 25% interest in AAE Travel for around US$100mil.

“In our estimate, the latter two are worth RM1.03/share, if the entire proceeds are paid out as dividends,” it said.

Wongthk, it will, sooner or later.

Well, at least this 17 knows the difference between RM0.50 and 0.5 cent??

(this is old story already which everyone knows, I couldn't remember all the details, readers who got time please make my story more accurate, thanks in advance. )

1. Special Dividend in 4q when AAC sale concludes. If you don't understand english, i can't help you.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airasias-shareholders-may-see-special-dividend-4q-when-aac-stake-sale-concludes

2. The 40c Special Dividend in Q3 was given, probably because a) Airasia has too much money, b) The deal has been dragged too long. So, a portion was given to reward shareholders.

The TF as we know, if 40c is all we got, then he would say something like, after so long, finally its done etc etc. No such talk yet, so i think there will be one more.

3. Everyone knows TF and MK did a private placement of RM1b to subscribe Airasia shares. Market believes they need the special dividend to repay bank loan.

You could argue why no another special dividend? Because Airasia needs the money? For what?

Apparently my previous comment is ambiguous/misunderstood.

I meant QL's next QR will be bad, or very bad.

"The invincible becomes vulnerable. "

Wow, Calvin, good one! Its wonderful you can dig out some truth in the numbers.

110 Marks!!!!

According to Saiyan™ Research, the next QR will surprise the market. The invincible will soon be vulnerable.

Thanks T3 and RMaster.

Another serious mistake caught. Merah is controlled by Airasia and is selling to Castlelake.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/189550.jsp

Wrong also.

Merah is owned by Airasia. The sale is to sell Merah to Castlelake.

It shows (again) how incompetent are our analysts.

Aduh! Wrong loh

Thanks, Abilakh.

Again, correct me if i am wrong.

Why 5 planes aborted is not a bad news?

1. AAC was formed in 2014, there were already talks of selling some aircrafts at that time. The sale officially started in mid-2016, now after 2 and a half years, finally its done. The remaining 5 planes ownership are still here within airasia group, leasing to 3rd party, that means generating income also.

2. Another special dividend on the way. TF always says to distribute all proceeds to shareholders (he also added eventually depends on the board also).
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airasias-shareholders-may-see-special-dividend-4q-when-aac-stake-sale-concludes

3. Now finally AAC is done. TF and Airasia will continue to create more value for us. (His goal is to make Airasia's market cap more than Singapore Airlines, then he will retire. Last time I checked, its RM12/share. )

Up next:
a. IPO of MAA? IPO of MAA is very likely to happen. The company has restructure all subsidiaries to prepare for MAA to be listed.

b. Last year TF mentioned he hopes to get dual listings to be done by his birthday. Maybe some other year's birthday?

c. Castlelake and more? Eventually Airasia will spin off all non-core assets.

Ttreeinvestor, yes, long term value is important. However, Airasia is in a situation that whatever the management do, the market refuses to give a fair valuation of say, PE of 10. A good quality company like Airasia should be valued at 15-60 times PE. So, to enhance shareholder's value, management choose to actively push up the price to reward shareholders.

Its a long fighting journey for TF and management, dumb analyst who can't even use a calculator properly say too much debt. Now debt is gone, TP still RM3. dumb analyst C say oil price too high, when oil price drop gives TP RM6, now price of oil is halved, they give TP of RM2.12.

Now TF says maybe our financial statements too complicated, dumb analyst don't know how to read. So, we simplify it.

The problem is not with the company, but our analysts are dumb.

Market will soon realised 5 planes aborted is a good news rather than bad.

5 planes aborted could mean less big fat special dividend, and also second special dividend (if any) to be announced.

Correct me if I am wrong, I think AirAsia owns around 200 planes and sold 70 and selling 25. The rest are the newer planes. Near term unlikely to sell more. Even if there is, negotiation takes a long time.

I note that IB analyst didn’t take into account for the last 5 planes in their research.

Well, at least AAC is finally concluded. Still a 1b USD deal, done!

Huat lah!!!!

OMG, a fierce version of BWC. Lol!

Cancellation of 5 planes reduce the chance of fat special dividend. I am touched by the few people that give a shit on AAC sale though.

Anyway, apparently the underlying strength of the share is very very strong.

Besides causing oil price to rise, good economy stimulate more demand also.

Hello, guys, say something. Correct me if i am wrong. This time not very sure.

So last 5 aircrafts were not being sold. My guess is 1 from FLY and 4 from Incline, probably due to their own problem (no money).

Airasia just have to find other buyers.

Or not.

It could be trade war has weaken the economy larger than expected, so the buyers quit.

Or maybe the planes has problem transferring ownership.

FLY is listed, and Airasia subscribed to shares of FLY. FLY has been dropping from 15USD to 11USD now. Not sure what price Airasia got FLY shares.

factorrumour, Airasia used to have more than 50% foreign shareholding, it was more serious matter back then.

Even if your calls are accurate, overall returns still too low.

Dunlikestudy,

The implications of sales of Castlelake is RM0.05 improvement in EPS.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6016889

OMG, OMG, OMG,
another BWC reappears.....

在「人民的名義」中，祁同偉被詬病到領導家人墓前哭墳。我想，任正非讓自己孩子不跟姓，也是一種「哭墳」行為吧！在馬來西亞，叫PLP吧？俗了！抱歉！

Tradeview, like x 100

Philip Fisher 100, SSLEE Nil.

Reason: Philip Fisher bought QL 9 years ago. SSLEE bought Xingquan 9 years ago? lol

Rule no.1: never lose money. Rule no.2: never forget rule no.1

Mr. SSLEE, why don't you learn? You always buy shares when it is going down. WHY?????? You maybe a charitable person but you won't last very long here.

Ringgit appreciation will help. Every now and then new drive pushes price higher.

teoct, then you predict into the future based on facts.

說得很好。

我認同妳說的，市況已經好轉。

Wow, congratulate the author for doing such a good analysis! Especially you did it without copy and paste. Really really good.

However, that was history. You'll get 100 marks but still you're totally wrong.

One, the killer has came to livestock farming, much worse than CP opening their mega farm next to QL (CP is in Malaysia though, small scale. Probably Malaysia's market is too small for CP). And most likely QL management doesn't know how to solve the problem. Two, Oil palm's low price may prolong for a few years (and our government continue to hurt oil palm, probably we will have a lost decade for oil palm). Otherwise, why did the major shareholders sell?

When QL was listed, I look at the receivables and decided this is a risky co. I was very wrong. So I could be wrong again.

You will start to see what i mean in the next quarterly result. Good luck!

When someone make money, he thinks he is stock of god.

So he tend to look down on people who lose money or didn't make as much. I mean that's normal.

Once he get over that stage, then he will be ok and be patient in sharing. Lol! Making money all the time becomes boring too, sooner or later!

So, helping people makes money (for real) becomes the ultimate passion.

On the other hand, many so-called "sifu" who always lose money are immune to complain now. So-called "sifu" says i have FD lah, small portion of my net worth only lah, blah blah blah.

Comparatively, KYY is more honest.

For me, if you talk about investment and your personal wealth depends on subscription money, then its a fake.

Market sentiment turns positive, that's good. Volume also picking up. Have you position yourself already?

華為手機的確不好用，用個一年多就要換了。華為員工也是有熱愛真理、響往自由的。

1015，great comment.

其實我覺得妳的想法不錯，只是補充一句：現在大量中國公司進軍我國，跟鋼鐵的情況其實差不多。

In your last passage, you mentioned you trust the new guy.

The real question is, does he know how to enhance shareholders value? Obviously he doesn't.

New homework for you, learn the meaning of shareholders' value and list out 5 ways to achieve.

Lol

Sslee, good start. Keep going. You'll be there.

Lol

I mean this is better choice than Xingquan and/or Hengyuan. Great improvement, keep it going.

Freedom of speech, that's why forum is for....

Occasionally i write in Chinese, but 1. I already wrote the same thing in English, 2, I do not know how to translate that to English.

Wonder why still got no news on AAC completion!!

完全同意。

明年頗難預測。一方面我國三千三百億預算為史上最高，這樣一些零售業、畜產業應該不錯。另方面外圍環境很差，中美談判個人預測不樂觀，再加上升息，風暴預期等算是危機四伏了。

China's State-owned Enterprise has free land, free technology to compete with US corporations. This is what Trump said its unfair and want to correct.

Also, in the early days, individuals can take government research results to business for free. That's how PUC, Haier, Hainan Airways, Huawei etc got big.

The China's Chinese are just doing things in a different way. That's why they can never reach a deal with the US government.

Ringgit appreciating, besides Airasia, which companies are benefiting?

我大半生都不走捷徑，做實業，發明，自己去賣東西，一年增長個百分之三十吧！可是啊，在股票炒一炒就幾千幾萬幾十萬，真的很過癮！

Happy new year. Keep us update, thanks.

I wonder why isn't any update on AAC sale as this is the deadline.

Expect another 80c-150c appreciation before end of feb.

我覺得這一波（連漲四天了吧）還沒有結束，來週收到特別股息的朋友肯定會帶來支持力量。

然後農曆新年前再來一波漲潮，業績出爐前泰國業績肯定標青以及乘載率數據等又來一波漲潮。

這一輪的業績肯定是超好的。其實通常第三季到第四季之間通常都會漲不少，主因當然是季度從最弱轉最強，股票漲也是自然。

這一輪業績超好的原因是，一、營運通過效率提升達到了新高度，那些用掌上機器描票、自助行李、大數據維修等都會在這一季業績集中大爆發（其實上一季季報已見端倪）。二、賣飛機肯定會完成。之前訂十月三十一日完成AAC，因為有五架飛機還沒有搞定，所以目標限期延後到明天。基本上還是要完成AAC之後再發特別股息的。可能管理層擔心股東等得太久，就發一部份給股東爽一下。三、預期的力量是一種有力的暗示！Expectation！特別股息發了四毛，股價又漲回去了！這是包贏！把資金放在這，無得輸！

最後，希望各位把心思放在分析、分享資訊、分享快樂，別一見面就吵架！丟人呢！

能夠算出那一支會勝出，才是高手。

是孟晚舟。

生在文明社會、讀過聖賢書的人，怎麼想都不會明白為什麼華為硬要買美國的東西再轉賣給伊朗。

晚清時期，我們讀中史都說是列強要打開中國大門賣鴉片，卻不知清廷隨意殺害外國人對文明世界造成的恐懼。

兩種文明的衝突終究會到決戰的時刻，但卻不是現在，再拖個兩三年再來一次大的，嗚呼哀哉！

Ya, PH already disturbed Petronas and all the petrol stations.