學會了，預知股票升跌是很容易的事。

買股票是預知未來的事，不是看過去。

bloody noob shit.

Bobii, don't see me lelefefe, i write it myself lah.

Ximon Lim, C74 has the lowest exercise price, that's a good start.

Then, you learn (from Jim Tan) that you need 2.6053 units of C74 plus the exercise price to be equivalent to one mother share.

So, 2.6053 x 0.305 + 2.1711.

Then you notice C66 and C67 has the lowest break even point, C74 is the third lowest.

Then you need to calculate the time value of each warrant(Simple equations will do). For example, 1.5c per month.

Then, consider also a lower priced warrant can make more money in percentage term for you compare to a more expensive one. For example, if you buy a 8c warrant, then when it rises to 15c, you may swap it to another cheaper warrant.

Then, note that Peter Lynch said only buy warrants that is in-the-money. That is your insurance policy! When the warrant expires, fly/drive to bukit bintang to collect your fat pay check.

Most warrants traded in premium, in very rare occasion it offers discount (what you called "undervalued"). For example, the mother share price is rising too fast or traders sell the warrant to you at a discount because they do not understand how to get the fat pay cheque (maybe their kampung no airasia yet).

One of the greatest challenge in doing well in warrant is able to read tiny letters. The Edge provides detail updates on warrants every week, all the premium / discount is published in detail.

Buying warrants at a discount is a great strategy. Just that you need to buy nearer to expiry date so that you can collect your payment sooner.

Most people don't even know whether a stock will rise or fall, how can one do well in warrant?

Next episode: How to know a stock will rise or fall?

Really sold all.

Made 50k.

Come back before end of dec. More exciting time ahead.

Some day in future, this could be a textbook case study for Monopoly vs (close to) Monopsony.

If Airasia wins, the Monopoly status of MAHB could be challenged, eventually MAHB will lose their monopoly status.

Slow slow wait. We will see some action by mid-Jan the latest. Those who sold will come back again next month.

The economy is weak now, speculators also have not much money.

AAC sale is expected to be complete by end Dec, let's see. That's an important deadline again. Too many delays already.

Sell another 30 aircrafts? It looks so much more expensive than AAC? Maybe a better deal, more profit.

Ok, ok. What's the name of the stock again?

Hi, many more great moments.

The Castlelake deal was first published by Reuters, so probably quite accurate.

At first i thought it should be AAX but the news report states clearly its narrowbody so it must be Airasia.

Huat lah!!!!

The market of foreign labour is a big market.

I believe Top Glove did what they have to do and try their best to treat workers nicely. But bear in mind the new government is sot sot a lot of the times, so they will likely to follow the existing law to punish Top Glove.

https://about.malaysiakini.com/people/beh-lih-yi/

The original interview was done by Beh Lih Yi, early years in Malaysiakini, works her way up to international level, good journalism in action.

Support!!!!

The beginning of the end?

http://news.trust.org/item/20181210120354-hkh20/

Already pleaded guilty. Not so easy to get labour nowadays....

TF and MK ran out of money? Wait Airasia special dividend then they got money to buy again.....lol

CP TEH, I don't think there will be crash in KLSE. One, besides new government being very silly, we have a record budget coming, next year will be very good. Two, Malaysia will benefit a little bit from the trade war.

其實特朗普在競選前十多年，就已經對貿易問題有所警惕！他曾經自薦當美國貿易代表，但是卻被人看輕。如今一登龍門，自然一展抱負。

MFCB power plant's operation cost is much lower.

Me, me, me!

Uncle Koon, I can manage your money for free, and provide profit guarantee of 200%. That means if i lose RM10 i will pay you RM20 for your opportunity cost.

You know, nowadays competition is keen!

Lol

Patrick, I didn't mean U shape recovery will not happen. But it will not happen because of "your technical analysis skill". If you are good in technical analysis, then your technical analysis will tell you buy signal after 40 days from now.

If i am right (time shall see), then "your technical analysis skill" is not really technical analysis skill.

In fact it will happen soon enough, one, production appears to have recovered, two, the worse is over. If one happens, then two, three, four will happen too. (two, three, four.....are New production begins lah, high egg price lah, favourable exchange rate lah, PROBLEMS OF COMPETITORS LAH, ......)

After 40 days, a bunch of "copy and paste sifu" on different channels says buy buy buy.

For others, yes, this is the moment to buy. Good luck!!!!

(Reason? I already said that two months ago, wait after QR)

Almost everything you said is ok. Except....

I am very annoyed by people talking about Technical Analysis in Malaysia, especially in this forum. Good Techinical Analysis will help you long oil all the way from USD20 to USD80, then help you to short oil from USD80 to USD60. If you don't know how to do that, then don't use technical Analysis, you know nothing about it.

Yes, i am referring the U shape line you draw. ABSOLUTELY RUBBISH!!!!

OMGOMG, i PM you. Give me your email....

錯晒！

文明一點，說說道理。

一、一般散戶喜歡買亞航，是因為常使用其服務，對它的營運很了解。這是品牌魅力！對於財經投資的普及有很好的促進作用。

二、投資股票不能只看過去股價表現。歷史已經證明，優秀的公司長期股價表現肯定會符合實際情況而高漲。我對其他投資者會列舉亞航的成長率、營運效率、得獎次數、策略、文化等等，但對你肯定對牛彈琴，我看你只有中四程度。連特斯拉你都說會倒閉不是嗎？

三、亞航還有競爭優勢！如果你將亞航與新航、國泰等的業績比較，你就知道亞航擁有無可比擬的優勢。馬印航空虧了六億，馬航虧了多少？亞航在行情最壞的年度、最弱的本季營運還賺三億，難能可貴。

四、至於亞航的問題，之前包括不專精、債務過高、子公司被當成是殖民地式的管理、越開越多子公司，大部份都隨著大數據的運用而大大改善。

其實你將亞航的優點說得不好，和東尼將亞航的缺點說得很好，都一樣很壞囉！

其實你是不是誤讀了什麼厚黑之類還是天生為了搏出位而死不認錯強詞奪理唯恐天下不亂？

很多年前你說亞航財務工程痕跡明顯, 債務幾千億，你是不會做帳也不會看帳的人，你竟然說因為亞航要買很多飛機所以負債很多云云，卻沒有計算因為買飛機而帶來的盈收。

你蠢就是蠢啦！我罵你有根有據，還想著書立說，你這是沒有自知之明。

很多年前我叫你測驗一下你的智商，測了沒有啊？

L is very difference from i, what kind of people can't differentiate it? Lol

Thanks to Lay Hong, QL, etc, I know what really happen now. Why it happen and how to prevent it.

I was going to buy Lay Hong finally, because i thought QL also want to buy Lay Hong again since their directors have been selling shares for 2 months now. I was wrong.

Today two market sources told me something even worse happened. So stay away.

James Ng, 選股票好像做偵探一樣，不要背書一樣講回出來。

兩群董事都在拼命賣股，已經兩個月了。前幾天高Volume時應該就是消息爆出來了。現在吹全利，自己死就算了，別拖累人。

其實，不可能發生的偏偏發生了，大家亂成一團，也是很自然的。但冷靜下來背後自然有其規律。

今天很高興，原因我也想到了，解方我也想到了。只是，馬來西亞還是相對落後的國家，要接受新知識也是很難的。今天，就算全利全體董事認同我的講法，要改變也需要幾個億吧！所以等於是無解了。

自求多福吧！

Hello guys.

I got a lot to say but i can't say it here. It seems that the news hasn't been blown yet. I think the market get to know the news few days ago when QL was top volume counter.

What i can say here is there are many Chias' running this company. Basically they are two groups of them. And both groups of Chias are disposing AT THE SAME TIME.

It has been going on for two months now!

Please be cautious.

(YES, YES, YES, its happening again.) <-- for the smart fellows.

What i can say here is there are many Chias' running this company. Basically they are two groups of them. And both groups of Chias are disposing AT THE SAME TIME.

It has been two months now!

Those who have a brain please be cautious.

Nowadays a lot of people reorganise information of a company and think that's a proposal or what.....

It's really annoying to see this AAX don't know how to make money. Previously TF commented MAS doesn't know who they are. AAX also don't know who they are.

With such a low cost, just a little bit of fine-tuning should make tons of profit, don't know why they always fail to do so.

About 6 years ago, TF came to my place to promote AAX IPO. I still remember he said: "the growth trajectory of AAX will be very very similar to Airasia. " Well, that was totally wrong.

They have changed their CEO, now chairman. Let's hope this time it will work.

Last year AAX got some free routes from Airasia, don't know if it work out but share price keep on falling.

Hi, everybody! Greetings!!!!

Looks like something interesting has happened here.

Before i start, early last year i made a lot of money from Airasia. Then i switch to AAX. I was naive to believe KM's talk of privatisation, then i lose a lot of money.

So this time i will be a bit conservative dealing with AAX.

Ok. First, TF and KM steps down a few days ago. Both became non-executive directors, and handed the helm to Thailand's AAX CEO.

Announcement shows Thailand AAX is making profit for the last three years and that's why they chose this Nadda Buranasiri. (Strange enough another music guy)

Last few days TF and KM buying aggressively, signaling support and turnaround potential. (It doesn't mean they are right though)

Moreover, USD/MYR is weakening, will benefit AAX.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5955533

One more thing, they are dividing the planes among different subsidiaries, which signals they might be thinking of a similar deal like AAC.

Warren Buffett: "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."

Warren Buffett: Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.

No wonder you are thinking of selling subscription. Lol

True.

Wong Teck collect skin already.

You got the wrong understanding on justice. Justice is when you are not hurt. You are merely fighting for your own course while hoping others could be used by you.

When it has nothing to do with you but you fight for other people, that is commonly known as Justice.

Your action is not wrong though.

There are good or bad corporate governance however. Warren Buffet says you should check on management's previous promise. When the co. have money, what would they do?

I have found my new target, so will not comment here so much from now on. Airasia is fine anyway. Hope the smart member of this forum continue to enlighten the newbie.

MAS and MALINDO shrinking, cannot stand pressure from Airasia already. Won't be surprised if MALINDO goes into insolvency in 2-3 years.

Oil continue to go lower. May see USD40.

Accounting is the language of business. We read through the account to understand the present and the future of the business. As we all know, this is the worse time in business for everyone in Malaysia. Cost is going up, unemployment is going up, consumption is weak, business is very difficult. And yet at this worst moment, in the weakest quarter, Airasia still managed to keep cost down, expand volume and make RM300m operating profit.

Take the worse case scenario, 300m x 4 = 1.2 b profit next year. 10 times PE, makes Airasia 12b capitalisation. You still earn the special dividend and ordinary dividend. Best case scenario? 2b profit is easy. 3b profit?

Next year the business environment will be a lot easier than this year. Oil down, Trade war ease (more tourist coming back), new government's biggest ever budget, competitors downsizing. You name it, every luck any business could dream of is happening next year.

There is a book called "From A to A+", may suit Airasia story just right. time to fly, Airasia!!!!

Huat lah!!!!

KLCI Going Heaven. The original announcement was, special dividend to be distributed once AAC sale is completed. Now the deal is projected to be completed by end of the year. Treat the rm0.40 as a pleasant surprise.

Good one.

However, under the present government, anything could happen. That's the risk premium.

很快又會被河蟹掉。

If you really know investing, you don't need to collect fees or collect fans to push up the price.

Just keep the way you are now.

Genting was just unlucky, JAKS is suicide, like many investors went into it.

Ricky Yeo, well said.

Within the same industry, you wonder why QL is doing so well while others keep losing money. I think, as they said, hand on management, integration, plus the ability to make use of standard, international practices. Nowadays there are SOP, management guide on everything, just not a lot of people want to follow.

Why are they selling? They are two groups of Chia, and they are both selling. They must have reached agreement to sell together. i. they must have thought the price was too high. ii. maybe they want to buy something, without using QL's company resources.

Finance 201. Well done, Full Mark.

ggwp

Investor education is very important.

i3Value, Q1 already declared interim dividend.

Say a person's salary RM15,000 per month. He suddenly won the lotto RM30m. So is he rich or just normal?

Kaka22, if you read the AAC deal (correct me if i am wrong), the planes sold are on leasing term for 1 year only. The higher leasing cost is only a temporary measure to smoothen the transition. I presume in a few years, when the new planes delivered, leasing cost will go down.

newbie4444, the AAC deal still haven't complete yet. There is high possibility another SD in Q4, plus a final dividend.

ignissima, you are right. Thanks.

On QR and others....

i. Dig out my draft note, correct me if i am wrong.
AAC, another RM1.6b received in Oct 2018. USD148.4m worth of planes yet to be transferred (last 5 planes of AAC). AAC expected to complete by end of Dec, so they can book another billion ringgit of profit.

ii. Cash as in QR is 4.4b, plus 1.6b in Oct, makes 6b. 40c special dividend will be around 1.336b, really token 碎紙 only. Still plenty of cash left. Another special dividend will be very very likely to happen.

iii. Cost down, and revenue up!!!! In this poor economic environment, Airasia really did super well. Management of Airasia makes all other "professional managers" look like kindergarten kids. (I was wrong worrying Airasia diversify too much).

iv. Oil down, and down, Airasia easily make an extra 1-2b next year, and even more the year after.

v. Really well done on speculating oil prices, very very little hedge on oil.

vi. I am surprised people still can find something to complain on Airasia performance, look at all other counters, wonder how can they lose soo much money.

vii. The economy is so so bad. Next year you will see bank has lots and lots of NPL. Stay cautious!

Still 100% on Airasia.

Huat lah!!!!

Not bad, huh?

Congratulations!!!!

This is just the beginning.

Huat lah!!!!

Gogogo!!!!

Huat lah!!!