Imenwe,
I 100% agree with you that it is very important to look at basic fundamentals n financial information prior to investing but then again one must always get the Big Picture right as this will have an important impact on the outcome of investment of palm oil counters...

The big picture as I see it is there will be tremendous growth in incomes in African and perhaps Middle Eastern countries once there is stabilized peace there...Yes it is true that Africa is opening up...but then again as Africa opens up economically...the per capita income in African countries will also go up too and this will have a tremendous impact on palm oil consumption looking at African eating habits....besides there is a good likelihood in Malaysia that the palm oil % in biodiesel be increased to 7% in Malaysia and if more R & D funds is invested on research on wider usage & application of palm oil & oil palm products the demand curve may shift again.....think about the endless possibilities of refined palm oil & oil palm by-products for industrial and consumer usage if more R&D funds are deployed to find more usage/application of these....likewise current oil n gas refineries uses crude oil to refine...there is also a possibility that palm oil be used when crude oil supply diminishes

I will be very cautious in calling for an end to the palm oil commodity cycle as somehow the demand kept on growing for the past 20 odd years and it is still growing......

Mr Koon,
You have proven to yourself and to the rest of the world that you are a great investor with proven results and I value your frankness and good intentions as well ...

I have a mech engineering based background and I too look at basic fundamentals/information such as the following:
-Is Major shareholder, BOD and Management trustworthy with good strategic management skills? This is of primary importance for me as an investor..
-What is the state of the industry type the company is in(is it sunrise, sunset, evergreen, cyclical industry)
- What is the company position in the industry( Is it monopolistic, oligopolistic or fragmented)
- What are the financials, past and forecast future performance of the company? ...its past, current and forecast PE multiples, top line revenue growth, earnings growth, earnings per share growth, cash position, debt position

I think most investors are able to obtain the above info and make a decision on which stocks to invest except for the first criteria on whether the Major shareholder, BOD and Management are trustworthy...Having said that what is your advise on how can I as an Investor seek out info on the trustworthiness of the BOD and Management besides asking from the grapevine?

The second question is "What is the basis in which you decide to sell any stocks that you had invested in? What are the mandatory info and criteria that are of paramount importance for you to make the decision to sell? Do you sell in stages or you sell near the top or just after the top??

Appreciate your advise on the above.

Thank you and best regards,

Yes ..after the big rain there shall be darkness...and thereafter big wind to flush out all the DIRT and cleanse all the DIRT before it can get into sunny state again..

There are basically two types of shareholder owners running any public listed company as I see it..

Take for instance Category A company where the owner possess strategic vision, drives a fundamentally sound business in a very professional manner which eventually drives up the earnings, drives UP the EPS and eventually the share price will reflect the business enterprise value and Increase the net worth of the owner. Every shareholder including the minorities will realize share appreciation over time and everyone feels better off.

There is another type of shareholder owners say Category B company where the owner shareholders engaged in unethical business practices that does not add value to the company's business ..they seem to think that unethical business transaction can be made a secret where nobody will know...OMG What utter naivety!!

The unethical business transaction involving certain shareholder owners will work towards driving down the value of the share price, the company image is impaired and consequently the net worth of the major owners also diminishes and the minority shareholders are also worse off as although the basic fundamental of the business is very good but the unethical practises of the major shareholders had destroyed the value of the share price. Unfortunately the company B major shareholders owners are very short term minded and does not appreciate professional business ethics coupled with passionate zeal backed by sheer hard work over time can indeed result in positive appreciation of the Company B share price

Somehow Benalec owner shareholders had worked extremely hard to qualify the company under Category B to the detriment of themselves plus the minority shareholders... If they had worked hard towards Category A company status, the net worth of the majority shareholders will be much more compared to now...minority shareholders will be feeling good as well...

longterminvest,
KESAS is a non core business of Selangor state government and the Selangor state government will sell KESAS away as it is non-core business.

Gamuda has offered but it was not an attractive offer and RM9.65 billion to take over all four water concessionaires was the FINAL OFFER PRICE by Selangor state govt...

Wait for the next show to start....how interesting...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ OMG What is next happening.......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Good decision for now fauzyrusdeny ..but please don't let it sleep forever...

Barakah is a new stock not on most analyst radar screen...It has a very good niche business model in growing its business particularly in upcoming PETRONAS T&I projects which will be awarded soon.

Those who have already bought into the Barakah RCUL 13/18 should hold onto it and realize much higher profits in the future and monitor the revenue growth, profit growth and earning per share growth of the mother share...Once the earnings per share starts to plateau it maybe a good signal to exit...

saddiqsepakraga,
I was very amazed and bewildered on the first and second day of listing of Barakah LA RCULS 13/18 and couldn't believe what I really saw as tremendous arbitrage opportunity and decided to inform i3 investors on the first evening about this fantastic arbitrage opportunity...Glad that I have opened up your eyes and congratulations to you for daring to take the decision to invest in RCUL 13/18....

Rest assured you have made the right decision and it is worth holding the RCULS 13/18 to maximize on your profits in the future as I am fully convinced that Barakah business model is very sustainable and Barakah has the management competency/skillsets to capitalize on opportunities in the T&I project business...It will be fantastic that Barakah becomes the main contractor for "PETRONAS T&I project awards" in the near future and that means big $$$$$ for Barakah shareholders including RCUL 13/18 holders...

Congratulations and best wishes to all of you who have dared to seize the opportunity to arbitrage on RCULS 13/18 to make big $$$$$$$$ !!!!

MB has not made any statement on sale of KESAS..Abdul Khalid merely said the Selangor state government had offered RM9.65 billion to take over all four water concessionaires and that was the FINAL OFFER PRICE...

"It's true, the Syabas management has been given to the state government. We are negotiating with the parties involved on the valuation of the acquisition-->The fact remains that till now there is still no agreement on the Final Valuation.


"If negotiations can be completed by year end, the takeover process will probably take another three to six months. What is important, the concessionaires' employees will not be laid off and can work as usual but under a new management,"--> Since the MB had given a final offer price of RM 9.65 Billion, it is very unlikely that negotiations will be wrapped up by year end unless the Selangor state government agrees to sell of KESAS...

Dear Mr Koon Yew Yin,

Greetings to you and family members and wishing you best of health , longevity and happiness.

Thank you for graciously sharing the info and your thoughts on valuation of JTiasa's palm oil cum timber plantation business from a businessman's fundamental investment point of view which I do appreciate immensely. Your articles have opened up my views on the basic critical approach and baisc info required in looking at investment from a business man point of view and I do concur with your views.

Every Investor have their preferred approach on Investment but I prefer to approach Investment based on fundamental analysis to decide on company to invest and technical analysis to determine appropriate time of entry

I must communicate forthright to you that I am not an expert on valuation of palm oil cum timber plantation business as in JTiasa and others. However I am very keen to know on current relative performance of plantation companies in Malaysia and Indonesia and the future drivers that will result in quantum profit leaps and increasing cash generation on yearly basis in the future.

I understand from the info supplied that the future drivers of increasing profits for J Tiasa is the increasing number of trees reaching maturity age of 7 years onward as current crop of trees are still very young assuming palm oil price rages between RM 2,500 to say RM 3,000 per ton. Having said that, what is the relative competitive yield per acre, acreage planted of JTiasa compared to its peers say TSH in Sabah, TDM in Peninsular Malaysia? I understand that there are several factors that influence yields per acre such as type of soil(peat versus volcanic based), the age profile of trees, the type of oil palm trees being planted, the acreage area being planted, proximity of planted areas, consistent fertilization programme, the management efficiency in bringing fruits for processing in palm oil mills, type of weather are important causal factors that determine yields per acre and future profits.

It has been reported that Indonesian soil is much more fertile for oil palms to yield easily 20% to 30% fruits per acre. Besides the soil, I understand that TSH and others had cloned Oil Palms that yield easily 30% more fruits and I assume that this oil palm variety is also planted on Indonesian soil as well.

I concur with your view that JTiasa per se will have fantastic profit growth in the future years due to increasing acreage and increasing maturity of oil palm trees although it has an additional profit contributor from its timber business. However as a long term investor, one must also be mindful of the relative competitiveness of JTiasa to emerging threats from new players from Malaysia, Indonesia that have more acreage, better soil condition , lower labour and production cost, lean and better management and other competitive factors that drives up Total profits and increasing Earnings per share....

I will appreciate very much your feedback views on the above.

Thank you, Good night und "schalfen sie gut"

It does not make any business sense to sell at lower prices to cash out .....the shareholders of barakah are well aware of the potential business opportunities ahead n will exit at progressive higher prices..certainly much higher prices relative to current price as based on market potential, barakah is in a good position to deliver higher profits that can support higher share price in the future....it is good to be aware of potential downside for exit points only....but one must not be unduly influenced by irrational fears to the extent that it blinds decision making in an objective manner....

My take is the window of opportunity to arbitrage will diminish very soon as more investors become more knowleageable of the arbitrage opportunity between RCUL 13/18 versus Mother share.

TQ excelyou for sharing the great research materia....it looks like censof n the rest are at the cusp of a sustained uptrend....

If one has confidence in Barakah management, is convinced of its business model and is willing to hold beyond 6th Nov 2014 , then one should be buying the Barakah LA RCULS 13/18 at 65 cents as the exercise price to get mother share is only 20 cents and one will be getting the mother share at 85 cents upon conversion after 6th Nov 2014 or one can still hold onto the RCULs 13/18 and sell it off at higher price.

The capital investment now is only 65 cents whereas if you buy mother share now ,the capital investment is 98 cents...In essence one can buy more RCULS 13/18 now (approx. 50% more shares)with the same investment sum...

Selling was well absorbed...UPTREND continues...

Price of water stocks are sliding down fast....

The main impasse is between PUNCAK and Selangor state government...does not look promising...maybe it has to go to the courts for resolution and that will take time...definitely post Dec 2013...

The run up of the share price has factored in "Deal by December 2013" and many investors including Great Eastern who are acting on behalf of its clients are buying into this...What happens when "No Deal by Dec 2013" materialize???

Would these investors continue to buy or cut out???

Prolonged impasse means RHB predicted price of RM 2.50 will be realized in due course once panic selling starts...

Looks like the share price movement is partially reflecting " NO DEAL BY DEC"

It is much Cheaper to buy Barakah LA @ 64.5 cents now to get mother share if your take is that the mother share price will be more than 85 cents 12 months from today!!!

The real material flavour of the day is who will get the T&I project awards from PETRONAS...will it be mainly dominated by SKPetro or otherwise...

Arbitrage is Attempting to profit by exploiting price differences of identical or similar financial instruments such as RCULS 13/18 closing price of 62 cents and Barakah mother share closing price of RM 1.00.

Waiting for lower entry price is best defined as fishing...

Happy Fishing and Best wishes to you to fish successfully at much lower prices..

Sell Time to buy Censof as Censof has more to leverage on GST related IT biz opportunities compared to Time ... Time is a subset in regards to GST related IT Biz whereas Censof is a whole set which includes Time as a subset!!

It appeared very strange that there was plentiful arbitrage opportunity today to invest in BARAKAH LA RCULs 13/18 as the closing price was 62 cents whereas BARAKAH mother share closed at RM 1.00. Exercise price to convert RCULS 13/18 to mother price is 20 cents for the next 12 to 60 months.

If one invest in RCULs 13/18 today,say at 63 cents, and converts to Mother share after 12 months , the total purchase price including holding cost of 63 cents will be 84.89( say 85 cents )assuming interest on 63 cents is 3%. Moreover RCULs 13/18 pays an interest rate of 3.5%.

The mother share closing price today was RM 1.00 hence there was a clear arbitrage opportunity to get mother share at 85 cents by buying the RCULS 13/18. Why pay RM 1.00 to buy Barakah mother share today when one can buy RCULs at 63 cents and get the mother share at 85 cents one year from now?

In the event the mother share price drops to 85 cents one year from now, the investor who had invested in RCULs do not suffer loss whereas the buyer of mother share will experience a loss of -15 cents. What is the likelihood that Barakah share price will drop to 85 cents one year from now given that Barakah had core competent skills in T&I projects execution and PETRONAS will be awarding the T&I package soon and in the future??? Barakah business model is very niche and it will be one of the beneficiary of PETRONAS localization policy particularly on T & I project awards.

My take is there will be much more UPSIDE to Barakah mother share price one year from now and any opportunistic investor today would be buying RCULS 13/18 at say 63 cents to get the mother share at 85 cents !!! I do not comprehend why one has to pay a 15 cents premium to buy Barakah mother share at RM 1.00???

It appeared very strange that there was plentiful arbitrage opportunity today to invest in BARAKAH LA RCULs 13/18 as the closing price was 62 cents whereas BARAKAH mother share closed at RM 1.00. Exercise price to convert RCULS 13/18 to mother price is 20 cents for the next 12 to 60 months.

If one invest in RCULs 13/18 today,say at 63 cents, and converts to Mother share after 12 months , the total purchase price including holding cost of 63 cents will be 84.89( say 85 cents )assuming interest on 63 cents is 3%. Moreover RCULs 13/18 pays an interest rate of 3.5%.

The mother share closing price today was RM 1.00 hence there was a clear arbitrage opportunity to get mother share at 85 cents by buying the RCULS 13/18. Why pay RM 1.00 to buy Barakah mother share today when one can buy RCULs at 63 cents and get the mother share at 85 cents one year from now?

In the event the mother share price drops to 85 cents one year from now, the investor who had invested in RCULs do not suffer loss whereas the buyer of mother share will experience a loss of -15 cents. What is the likelihood that Barakah share price will drop to 85 cents one year from now given that Barakah had core competent skills in T&I projects execution and PETRONAS will be awarding the T&I package soon and in the future??? Barakah business model is very niche and it will be one of the beneficiary of PETRONAS localization policy particularly on T & I project awards.

My take is there will be much more UPSIDE to Barakah mother share price one year from now and any opportunistic investor today would be buying RCULS 13/18 at say 63 cents to get the mother share at 85 cents !!! I do not comprehend why one has to pay a 15 cents premium to buy Barakah mother share at RM 1.00???

Censof price is starting to factor in potential new GST related IT software /service businesses with govt agencies which will be enhanced by the consolidation of TIME Engineering new GST related IT businesses as well.

Past EPS of Censof is irrelevant as new GST related IT business is indeed a significant game changing event that will positively impact on Censof future EPS...It is still in very early stage of price uptrend.

UPTREND for Magna Prima just started on Monday,4th Nov 2013, when it broke out with significant heavy volume which was almost 5 times the average traded daily volume.

Market is now waiting for new price catalyst post deal.

Based on latest reported info on EPS of 0.61 cents for Q2 2013, the extrapolated forecast EPS for 2013 is 2.18 cents thus giving a forecast PE of 8.26. If one look at the chart trend, EAH share price had already bottomed out and had resumed its UPTREND.

Based on closing price of 18 cents, there will be more upside in price movement than downside price movement.

Stock is oversold...there will be more upside than downside from now onward based on chart trend.

This stock is in process of transforming itself into a blue chip stock for long term investment with good dividend yield...

Have a nice day too Calvin..

The average working Singaporeans had not seen much improvement in their economic wellbeing over the past 10 years and this had been expressed in the past GE results for some constituencies.

It is true that the property prices of the average working Singaporeans living in HDB flats had appreciated since the time that they had bought years ago it but somehow the new property prices are much higher than the prices they could fetch if they sell their current property in HDB flats. The real situation is the average working Singaporean are worse off over the past 10 years and most of them do indeed feel poor in their own country!!

The real opportunity for property companies including Tebrau is whether they actively or passively exploit this dichotomy in the average Singaporean life...Living and working in a rich country but really feeling poor...Nevertheless they can certainly afford Tango at 50 cents!!!

Purchaser who buys over at RM 1.55 per share will work towards creating KLB enterprise value higher than RM 1.55 per share on medium to long term basis.

Developers will go for 2 pronged strategies...build properties exceeding RM 1 million to target foreigners and properties in range of RM 300K to RM700K to target local purchasers...

Property counters will most likely consolidate after the Budget announcement....

RHB will sell the shares on the way up...so the price on a medium term horizon will be UP..so it is timely to ride the UPTREND...

I really doubt RHB will dump the shares and force the share price down....it does not make business sense.

Hi Matrix,
Take a look at Tongher..It tested bottom 4 times and managed to turn bullish on 4th bottom with above average volumes on 22 Oct 2013. Current price now is above 200 days moving average.

Stock fundamental is good and getting even better with improvement in economies of Euroland. This is a good stock for medium term investment but may not necessarily be a good trading stock!!

Happy Investing !!

This is a good stock to hold for medium to long term investment...

Investors who had held onto the mother shares to get free warrants are now worse off relative to those who had sold just before ex-date..

Good for medium to long term Investment as fundamentals are getting better....

Investing is based on sheer company current performance and expected future performance. But it must never be based on "Hope"

The winner will thrive n prosper even in bad times...so fat KNM has not develop real competent skills ...the downward share price is testimony to this...

What proprietary technology that Borsig has that others just cannot do at more competitive prices, faster delivery time, better and more responsive project execution skills?? Since buying Borsig, KNM share price had been in bearish mode all the way downhill...

The companies that will perform much better are the companies that are well managed and doing well even in bad times...when the going gets tough, the tough gets going...this separates the men from the boys!!

When the good times come, the well managed companies will leapfrog over the boys!!

If there is nothing wrong with KNM then Why is the share price of KNM at near all time low?

I suggest you too go watch chicken lay egg...

We don't want to wait, We want to see....
So far...all hot talk backed by zero results with heavy dosage of sleeping drugs zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

KNM is a fabricator with poor execution skills as project management control, cost control skills that result in cost competitiveness are key competent skills required but somehow KNM could not get this right. Whatever goodwill that KNM had accumulated in the initial years had been serious impaired in recent years through their own poor performance...

matrixcool and ProfitMan,
You are most welcomed..

Tebrau has not been in the limelight for quite sometime...there had been some changes at the board level...the chart is telling me something is brewing and the fundamental for Tebrau is strong and will get stronger in the future as ETP shifts into higher gears resulting in rise of asset prices ...but its still in early collection stage and there is still abit of time to get in and it is the right opportunity to get in at this stage as chart uptrend has been confirmed by double bottom ...

Happy Investing!!

Hi Guys,
Take a look at Tebrau. Tebrau has completed double bottom with second bottom price higher than first bottom price and price now is on uptrend...

Happy Trading !!!

Yeah there is so many ifs and possible yes and ifs turn into absolute yes....Wish you lots of Good luck then..