Current situation is good for both Censof and Time Engineering:

When Censof officially becomes the major and dominant shareholder in Time, it will effect management changes to drive up Top line & Bottom Line in Time Engineering and this will benefit both Censof and Time Engineering share prices going forward.

Since the 55% shareholders had rejected the take over offer price of 20 cents, it is timely now to initiate small position in TIME...Chart wise TIME has bottomed out and it is in process of trend reversal i.e reversing its downtrend towards Uptrend.

If TIME can close above 29 cents today and remain consistently above 29 cents from today onward..it will bullish and it is a signal to invest more....

OK Ribuan terima kasih anbz..

JCool,
Thanks for the info. I became aware of the fine details pertaining to RCULS 13/18 being redeemed by Barakah at 20 cents last night vide the i3 forum. Consequently I went to Bursa website to double check and this was confirmed by documents in the Bursa website.

The terms and conditions of the RCULS 13/18 was skewed to the issuer and lacks fairness to purchasers who had purchased the RCULS from the BURSA market. To be fair to the purchasers of RCULS 13/18 the issuer should state that it shall redeem at the average market price over 5 trading days prior to the issue of notice to redeem. In view of this I had taken the decision today to sell out 100% of RCULS 13/18 this morning as it clearly showed to me that the BARAKAH management cannot be trusted and will not be fair to the minority shareholders due to this unfair clause of redemption of RCULs by the Issuer....

Christopher Tan,
I focus on companies that did well initially(that means the business model was good) but somehow messed up big time along the way(due to strategic execution & management issues) and finally put in strategic action plans to restore top line and bottom line growth ....there are not many companies like that...just have to research to identify such counters.

Another counter that I have taken position is Tong Herr resources. They did not mess up big time like KNM but are victims of circumstances. Chart wise it has bottomed out and is on SLOW UPTREND.Its business model and management are good but they got whacked by sub prime crisis and European crisis and EC investigation on circumvention of import duties of their products from Malaysia and Thailand. The EC had stopped the investigation and cleared them. Now Tong Herr can resume exports back into Europe and they had taken strategic decision to increase top line and bottom line growth by opening additional factories in Thailand and Vietnam to sell more into the ASEAN market. My take is top and bottom line will improve from 2014 onward and if they indeed can really hack it, I am looking at doubling or tripling of their 2012 EBIT and doubling of their 2012 Dividend pay out from 2014 onward. Go to their website and have a look.

You are most welcomed...

Entry last Friday was 10/10
Entry today this morning was 9/10
Entry today this early afternoon was 8/10

The Bullish signal is KNM closing price today @48.5 cents is above the 200 days MA@46 cents. For UPTREND to continue it must stay above 46 cents from now onward. The price may retrace a bit tomorrow and this could be a buying opportunity but you must pay attention that it does not go below 46 cents in the days or weeks ahead.

If the price in the future closes below 46 cents then better cut out and move to the side-line.

My take is the PRICE DOWNTREND had changed to PRICE UPTREND effective TODAY!!! So don't be too eager to sell...RIDE THE UPTREND FOR AS LONG AS UPTREND CONTINUES...

KNM was on my radar for a while....It fulfils my investment criteria of a turnaround stock....Chart wise it had hit rock bottom on 26th Aug 2013 and had been chugging along the bottom since then...

It entered into super tight Bollinger squeeze on 28th October 2013 and the price had been tightly squeezed since 28th Oct 2013 with daily traded volume much below the daily average trading volume...However the daily traded volume spiked up way above the daily average trade volume last Friday, 8th November 2013, and this was the trigger signal to initiate taking position as opening price on Friday=closing price on Thursday but price gradually moved higher. Took position last Friday afternoon and today this morning...

Happy Investing Kawan kawan!!

Guys n gals,
Global stock market sentiment will probably be benign possibly to Dec 2013...good time period for "goreng goreng" ....

Momentum is very strong...it may possibly touch next resistance of 49.5 cents and retrace abit but well above 46.5 cents...Lets see what the closing price is...

Christopher Tan,
Price must close above and remain above 46 cents from now onward to be in BULLISH mode. Price now is 46.5 cents...considered bullish as it is above 200 days MA of 46 cents...

Christopher Tan,
Looks like 46.5cents will be taken out at todays closing.
Next resistance= 49.5 cents
Target short term major resistance= 61 cents

Kawan kawan,
Looks like 46.5 resistance will be taken out today...it is now in that process of doing so...

Christopher Tan,
Immediate resistance to overcome = 46.5 cents
Next resistance= 49.5 cents

eSdM,
Pada masa tahun 2011, bermacam macam forecast oleh Security Analyst yang jerit kuat tentang TP KNM......

KNM TP RM3.34 oleh OSK -->trading buy
KNM TP RM3.50 olen HwangDBS --> Buy
KNM TP RM3.06 olen Kenanga -->Buy
KNM TP RM4.80 oleh TA Securities--> Buy
KNM TP RM3.45 olen RHB --> Buy

Apa dah terjadi sejak 2011?? Harga saham KNM kian hari kian merosot sampai sekarang...Ramai pelabur pelabur saham KNM kecewa, terkorban...

Boleh ke harga saham KNM terus naik hingga mencapai TP dahulu ..eSdM??

Censof IPO price was 93 cents in 2011 and TA Securities earlier forecast TP was RM 1.30...This forecast was made without the "Top line plus Bottom line contributions" from Time Engineering then.....

KNM..Ini kali lah !!! Betul ke eSdM ?

Broke through 64.5 cents resistance with solid volume...now @ 67 cents...Very Good Indicator of further Price surge ahead if Censof close above 64.5 cents today...

hmm...KNM price @44 cents is now -85.7% from all time high of RM 3.08..u still want to buy from stale bulls???
Would KNM or KNM-WA give u better return on your invested capital???
Dos KNM-WA has any stale bulls???

interesting...u wanna buy from stale bulls???

hmmm...which has stale bulls and which has not??? KNM or KNM-WA???

A ray of light shine forth at the darkest hour......Is it a sign of a turnaround????

Censof will most likely be not on foreign funds portfolio, is underesearched n not on radar screen of foreign investment funds..., it is more of local funds interest...

kcchongnz,
Yes..Tong Herr is my target investment stock as the business model is good and its business can really improve going forward into 2014 and beyond. It is currently very under researched or not researched (hence it accords good buying opportunity) and the best thing to do is there is no necessity to be on the screen everyday as with the momentum players...just need to monitor the company performance on a quarterly basis...

kcchongnz,
First and foremost I am confident that the major shareholders are trustworthy and they are serious business people.

Tongher business model is very simple, straight forward and easy to understand. To improve on current performance it has to manage costs efficiently, improve production efficiency and sell much more compared to previous years.

The owner shareholders knows the business and had been running this business for years and had delivered solid EBIT and gave good dividend payouts in the past. Its top line and bottom line figures were affected by the US subprime crisis and the European investigation on possible circumvention of ant-dumping measures by fasteners from Malaysia and Thailand as their main factories are located in Malaysia and Thailand. The European Commission had terminated the investigation in early 2013 and the chairman is confident of resuming sales of its fastener products back into the European markets.

There will be additional top line and bottom line contributions from the opening of new factories in Thailand and Vietnam in the first half 2013 to cater for domestic and the ASEAN markets. My take is the results will be reflected from 2014 onward as there will be teething issues to contend with in the two new factories during the second half 2013.

Chartwise , Tongher share price had hit bottom four times and has since rebounded from its lows. It broke the 200 days MA on 22/10/2013 with high volume and closed at 1.75 and its share price had inched upwards and closed at 1.79 last Friday and above the 200 day MA. It had consistently stayed above 200 days MA since its breakout on 22/10/2013.

Going forward, I am confident Tongher can deliver increasing EBIT and increasing Dividend payout due to improved cost management, resumption of fastener sales back to Europe and selling more into ASEAN market.

I hold Malaysian Ringgit....

The stock went ex-div on November 1st 2013 with closing price of 2.74. Stock Price corrected to 2.71 last Friday, Nov 8, with a black hammer indicating that correction is possibly over...daily trading volume was consistently below the average daily rate over the past 4 trading days indicating selling exhaustion. This is an another indication that the correction is possibly over...

The USA is the biggest debtor nation in this world and owes trillions of USD to China, Japan, Taiwan, S Korea etc... and still people want to buy USD!!! That is really amazing...

Selamat pagi anbz
Wow...you certainly can express a lot of your thoughts on what you had apologized to kcloh as not so good...nevertheless I do respect your personal views expressed ..and you are perfectly free to be entitled to your own personal views just like others are also entitled to their own views on "how to become a super investor" as well....you have shown enormous capacity and capability in expressing your ideas with crispy clear comments in this thread but somehow you have not shared with us on any of your crispy clear ideas on how to become a super investor which the participants in this thread are looking forward to and can also benefit from your views as well...

Please by all means do share with us your thoughts on how to be a super investor...Is that ok with you anbz? Will you please do so....Boleh ke anbz??

Obama slogan was " Yes, we can change" ..what he did was ..he "short changed the Americans"

When Obama added 5 trillion debts....Bernanke open his mouth and whispered "taper" and the global stock market went berserk, interest rate on US govt bonds spiked up to almost 3% from 1.8%..and guess what happened??

Obama realized that he has to pay higher interest rates on the 5 trillion US Dollar debts and he cant afford to pay the sudden incremental spike in interest rate and so Obama decided to fire Bernanke for whispering "FED may taper" and replaced him with Janet Yellen who had broached the idea of negative interest rate on cash deposits with US banks...Imagine what will happen if US citizen has to pay bank interest rate to put their cash money as fixed deposit in the banks??

Just ask yourself...if you are deep into debts to your eyeballs just like the US, do you want interest rate to go up or interest rate to go down??? Do u want more pain or lesser pain???

There is a strong possibility that Chinese Renminbi may play a supporting role as a reserve currency in the future...the Chinese economy is now the second biggest economy in the world and the recent slowdown in China was supposedly engineered by the Chinese government...going forward the Chinese economy will grow at a much rapid rate relative to USA...If the renminbi somehow does play a supporting role as a reserve currency, the renminbi will appreciate relative to USD but I do not see that in the immediate future say in the next 3 to 4 months. Having said that ..on a long term basis..one may want to invest in the renminbi as it will appreciate significantly against the USD as China is a creditor nation whereas the USA is the biggest debtor nation...

KNM recently disposed off in September their investment in Brazil and made some profit on the sale of investment...the key info is on whether KNM does indeed make significant profits from their fabrication business...not accounting profits...Even if there is accounting profit it will not have much impact on the share price...the market is looking for real significant operational profits derived from its fabrication business..

Sorry I do not understand Mandarin and as such do not know your name. However I will try to give you my take on what I see is happening currently...

The most recent economic info is that the money supply in US has increased but the velocity of money in circulation is on decreasing trend. As velocity of money in circulation decreases ...the risk of deflation is higher and Central Bankers in USA & in the major economies are terribly scared of Global deflation and will do whatever it takes to stave off deflation and the QE programmes were launched to stave off deflation. Without the QE programmes, the world would have already succumbed to global deflation long time ago...global stock markets would have crashed....many companies will go belly up...everyone will feel very poor suddenly...

These major central bankers are Keynesians and will act to keep interest rate to as low level as possible going forward although there maybe talks on possible FED tapering by certain FED committee members in the future due to the recent spike in latest employment figures.... but then again one swallow does not make a summer...the FED will rely on a host of information before deciding on the next step forward...and you are absolutely right in concluding that the immediate effect of FED tapering will lead to higher interest rates and possibly more outflow of funds back to USA unless of course the emerging markets increase domestic interest rates to incentivize and delay the outflow of foreign funds..

However higher interest rate on US Bonds may not be desired by the US right now ...and the central bankers main goal currently is to keep interest rates to a low level and for a long time...

For your info Janet Yellen, the incoming FED chief , has even broached the subject of Negative Interest rate on Cash deposits with US Banks ...just imagine where will the cash go to if this materialize when she becomes FED chief??

In the event of eventual FED tapering, the FED hopes that the spike in interest rate will be nominal...very minuscule amount...the unintended consequence of this FED tapering is the market may possibly desire much higher interest rate relative to the level which was desired by the FED...If that scenario happens the FED will launch QE unlimited to bring down the interest rate to the desired low level as the FED has the absolute power to do so...

Kcchongnz,
I would rather work hard, do research , spend the time to identify, focus on and monitor these few stocks rather than have a myriad of stocks to monitor. I will focus on whether the major shareholders, BOD and Management team are trustworthy and frankly this is the most frustrating and challenging exercise but is extremely important factor for an investor..

bngpg,
Turnaround stocks I focus on are:
-fundamentally sound stocks with bad management OUT.
-fundamentally sound stocks on the cusp of a cyclical UPTURN
-stocks with good business model enhanced by new business acquisition that adds value to the company business

These stocks will GAP UP over time..

kcchongnz,
You are also a very experienced investor yourself, very well read, extremely financial savvy and a man with superb intellect based on your write-ups. I do enjoy reading your articles, your thinking process that leads to your qualitative judgement based on strict financial decision making discipline. My strategy on stock investment choice is to focus on turnaround stocks..

I agree with you that the hardest part is to decide on when to sell especially when earnings keep on rising in a turnaround stock as this will impact on the intrinsic value. My exit strategy is to focus on quarterly EPS n YTD EPS and the moment it plateaus ie no change from previous year , I will then rely on technical indicators to exit.

Nevertheless I have asked Mr Koon for his valued advise on this matter but till now I am still waiting for his experienced input on mandatory info that he requires to decide on before selling the stocks.

I have identified one stock that is a potential turnaround stock and that stock is called "TONGHER RESOURCES". My take is going forward the EBIT and Dividend payout can double. What is your take on this stock?? Appreciate your valued input on this matter.

The major central bankers will act to keep interest rate as low as possible going forward although there maybe talks on possible tapering..the effect of tapering is higher interest rate but the central bankers goal is to keep interest rate at a low level...

My take is based on chart pattern Censof is still in early accumulation stage .IT n Oil & Gas stocks will be the theme plays post budget..going forward. Censof is an IT company n major shareholders had successfully built up a good business model with acquisition of Time Engineering n Censof is a takeoff stock capable if delivering super profits going into 2014. Investors should buy into Censof on any price weakness . Furthermore Censof is under researched n therefore this is another reason for strong buying opportunity before good news r factored into the stock price going forward with more IT GST contract awards cum IT service awards...

Imenmwe,
Yes I do agree with you that on a macro level one must keep track on the money supply growth and the velocity of money indicators...Having said that the most brilliant minds in the world in USA, Europe, China, Japan are at work to avert a global deflation...US has to deleverage in a controlled manner though... due the financial excesses they brought to themselves...and controlled deleveraging will take a long time ..

If I were you I will focus and sit tight on CENSOF and SCOMIES and stay away from property stocks...

Inwest88,
Most ordinary players do not do research and even if they did...they do not have a strategic plan to get in, sell out at TP or cut out when price trend worked against them...most of them are either very egoistic, very hopeful or just bury their head in the sand and become ostriches...easy meat to kill for good barbeque session..

I truly respect KC Chong methodology on making investment decisions and his methodology requires significant and high competence understanding of reported financial datas. The only snag here is past success does not guarantee future success...I rather approach in a different way at looking at past financial info as a guide but trying to understand whether the company can indeed create super profits...that means one has to look at companies that do not show much financial performance in the past...that's the easy part...the hardest and most challenging part is to identify companies that can really make it...

The mass ordinary players in BURSA or elsewhere are really handicapped as most of them lacked true research work materials on good stock recommendation for investment. The professional fund managers have financial resources that buy first rate research material and is way ahead of the retailers ..

So its really difficult for ordinary players to make it big if these players do not have clear strategic plans...most of them are late punters...and got killed anyway..

bsnppg,
I do fervently believe that eventual success will come to those those who worked hard, perspired 99% of their time to achieve the 1% inspiration of increasing ones own Net worth. There is clearly no substitute for solid painstaking hard work to achieve an inspirational target goal but the inspiration must come first though...In essence you create your own "GOOD LUCK"...

Having said that ...getting in is the easy part...getting out is the hardest and getting out means you ride the trend UP to sell out or you cut out when the trend goes against you...many people I know let their egos interfere with making and acting on objective decisions made...that is the sad part...and it hurts alot for many people as they allow emotions to get in the way...

bsnpg,
"Luckers" mean 99% perspiration working towards achieving the 1% inspiration goal of increasing ones networth...

Based on what I read over the past months in i3 forum I can surmise that most of the "Luckers" here in i3 forum are quite comfortable with at least 1 million or a few million ringgit liquid assets...

E for KNM means Earnings from Accounting Treatment ...not earnings derived from operating a fabrication business...If KNM truly produce great earnings from fabrication business operations then it is worth revisiting this stock...

There is however an exception to Luckers though...it is termed "HANDOUTS"

lol...

"GOOD LUCK" is 99% perspiration working towards achieving the 1% Inspiration ...We create our own Good Luck...There is no substitute for "GOOD LUCK"!!!

Imenwe,
There is currency wars everywhere as nations devalue currencies to shore up/support exports....what this means is more money creation ...as long as this persist..it will be reflected in the commodity price charts...