FGVH is no doubt a BIG corporate exercise by the Malaysian Government. I also believed the IPO price ($ 4.55) will be well supported.
with the Bulk of the shares offer to Corporate Institution and 10 - 12 Corner stone investor (holding moratioum for 6 months). the post IPO pricing may be between $ 5.00 -5.50.
the pricing concern is FGVH tree profile. With more than 50% of the 300,000 ha planted between 20 - 25 years. It will be less competitive compared to other plantation counters.
FGVH needs to spend more or their tree replanting in the next 5 -6 years compared to other companies. KLK or IOI has less than 5 % - 10% of old tress.
The other concern is that FGVH has no given any profit forcast in their IPO propestus. To work on FGVH price earnings , we need their forecast figs for at least the next 2-3 years.
Apart from the above issues is the current downtrend on CPO prices. Currently prices is trading at RM 2,950 per ton compared to RM 3,500 per ton in April.
The banks undertakers will support the share price for a few days just like the Facebook IPO. So you can be sure the price will not drop below RM 4.50. If all the Felda settlers all sell their shares, then the price might drop because of the large volumes.
At this market sentiment, i think it is better to buy from open market. Whats the chances of getting it thru IPO? Hope the first day of trading will be like SKP.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lotsofmoney
914 posts
Posted by lotsofmoney > 2012-06-04 12:29 | Report Abuse
The present market sentiment is not good.