Posted by BBB79 > 2014-05-28 13:28 | Report Abuse

原來是有學問的。

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-28 14:04 | Report Abuse

但是这个情况设止损点，
对长期投资者来说是有利的。
因为当公司遇到短期不利，
跌势不止10%（很可能去到30-40%），
设止损点可以帮助你之后以更低的价格买入股票。

可能 is perhaps. How sure is your this perhaps? What if after you cut loss at 10%, the share price bounces back, and continues to go up? What is your loss of opportunity cost?

Won't happen? Can show some statistics?

第三 你觉得好的公司真的是好公司吗？
长期投资者如果投资到好的公司，
在长期来看是稳赚，
但是好的公司通常都很主观。
万一投资的是不好的公司，
跌破止损点过后还继续持有，
损失就非常惨重。

主观? Of course value is very personal. One can be wrong. But then why not make damn sure that your probability of right is high. Of course if eventually one is proven wrong, then have to cut loss, even at that time, the loss could be very high. What to do? It is part of the game.

所以设止损点对长期投资者来说，
好处其实还蛮多的。
为了避免因为技术性回调而卖出，
其实是有方法的，（那就是去学习技术分析啊^^）
就是根据公司的规模设不同的止损点。
蓝筹股设10%，（因为蓝筹技术回调很少跌破10%）
二三线股设15%，
小型股设20%，
这样就可以避免误卖好的股票。

This bring back the first point above, what if after cutting loss, it moves up? And why 10%, 15%, or 20%?

Actually with these types of rules learned by the retail investors, it appears to me it is easy for big sharks to make money, of course out of small retail investors.

当然止损点还有一个好处，
就是可以很快地逃离熊市。
在熊市里，
一家好的公司亦可能跌至原本股的20-30%，
那时可能就要等多7-8年才可能回本。

The same problem. And why 7-8 years? Any statistics?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-28 16:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by Tan KW > May 28, 2014 02:29 PM | Report Abuse
@kcchongnz, i believe this rule shall not apply to you. but how about major retailer that not able to understand a company and do proper valuation?

Tan KW, to me it is hard to fathom that a retail investor like me can beat the market in this zero sum game with little half-baked knowledge and skill which has little logic and with a relatively powerless computer compared to what the big boys have. It is like me playing badminton with Lee Chong Wei.

Whereas investing is different. Like what Buffet said,

“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.”

You just need a little knowledge in investing and the right mind set though.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-28 17:08 | Report Abuse

見仁見智

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-05-29 19:10 | Report Abuse

Between Sell and Buy whether at 20% 30% 40% drops, it makes whole lots of different in our future return. To me it is Make or Break.

TO ME This is the most critical moments in investment cycle. Our skills, mentality and belief is at this moment:

1) If i cut the loser and reinvest on Winner, can we see the difference of future return?
2) Again if I decide on Buy on Weakness/Dip, can we see the differences in future return?

We can make reference to the followings:
1) Is the Business recession proof?
2) Is the current Business/earning at the upswing?
3) How bad is the price drop for past ten years?
4) Debt level? Credit Risk? Net cash? Sensitivity to market changes?
5) Product cycle.
6) Receivable Ratio.
7) Balance Float of Share Capital.
8) High ROE or Low ROE.
9) Big Cap or Small/Medium
10)Currency Risk. Export ratio.

Well it is just a reference of opinion.