Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-10-06 18:36 | Report Abuse

From the Graph you will notice that by End 2009 The Fund has the lowest Net Cash position of around 10%. That was the Best Time To Be In Equities. From Year 2010 to 2014 This Net Cash position has been piling up from 10% to 56% in ever increasing level.

And in Malaysia it was a time of Expansionary Growth - especially in Iskandar. Those who hold on to Cash have lost out in Asset Price Rise of All Properties.
Those Who Owned Assets Have Greatly Benefited From The Boom.

Same in The USA. Those Who Were Invested In Assets & In Dow Jones & Nasdaq Did Very Well. The Ordinary Man/Woman on the Street Fared Poorly.

The Verdict Is:

Cash Is A Definite No No!

It is not a proposition to hold on to Cash. Where did TTB went wrong.

1) Timing The Market
TTB believes in the Theory of Market Timing. Like Doomsday Prophets he expects The Market To Crash. Instead It Went Up For 5 Years. So the bet went wrong.

2) Failure To Do Homework/Research
Not All Shares Went Up As A Whole. There Were Laggards (plenty of them).
As Mark Mobius stayed invested at all times. He advocate buying Good Shares (Blue Chip) in Bad Times & Buying Bad Stocks in Good Times.

TTB only bought into Good Shares in Bad Times. Of course there were lemons like Mieco. But failed to do due diligence searching out "bad shares" that have potential like PM Corp.

3) Following Conventional Accountability TTB is prevented from Buying Bargains.
Bargains like MUI Berhad, MUI Property, PM Corp, SILK, ASB, Dutaland, Jaks, Ipmuda and many others were outside the Investment Radar of TTB due to the need to conform with the Opinion of The Investing Crowd. If he is bold enough he should blaze a trial into value investing in unearthing these Undervalued Stocks.

4) Resting On Past Laurel
Perhaps the most evident weakness is here. Having done well for the First 3 years TTB is bathing in the glowing success of early years. Like the proverbial rabbit who outran the slow tortoise TTB folded his arm smugly & slept while the tortoise crept up on him.

What Are The Lessons For Us!

1) Like TTB who bought more in year 2009 we should increase our stock holdings when Market is Cheap. He did well in Year 2009 by fully investing 90% of the fund.

2) Avoid Market Timing. Since the Future Is Unknown.

3) With Inflation more than Bank F/D rate Cash Is A No! No!

4) Seek Out Under performing Laggards. There are still gems around. The need to work to unearth these laggards take diligence, time & effort. So don't be lazy. About all - Never Rest On Past Laurel. If we rest we rust.

Happy Investing,

Calvin Tan Research

Posted by xncziyi44 > 2014-10-07 06:10 | Report Abuse

calvin tan yes the head hit the nail,market timing is not professional more like profess gambling.also 60% xcash earning less than 3% when plenty reliable n good stocks are paying double that div.ttb more a gamer than reliable fully expert long term investor,fund going backward,we need an innovator not caretaker who gamble on the market clashing.

Posted by kakashit > 2014-10-07 10:25 | Report Abuse

he is juz another fella who is trying to speculate the market, no matter bear or bull, speculation is speculation. PPl who speculate the market must be thinking they r better W.Buffet who does not speculate the market at all.

Posted by kakashit > 2014-10-07 10:28 | Report Abuse

oya, this weekend we can go KLCC 踩场

Posted by chonghai > 2014-10-07 13:32 | Report Abuse

When I bought ICAP during IPO, I was expecting ICAP to hold good company until they become overvalued or better investment opportunities show up. I am OK with the fact that TTB got 2008 wrong and almost fully invested when the market drop. However in 2012 TTB start to speculate about bear market and held on to cash. I expect ICAP to help me to buy the right stock at the right price. However ICAP seems to be waiting for the "right time". To me there is no such thing as "right time".I sold all my ICAP during end of 2012 when the hostile shareholder failed to take control of the board. I am glad I did that.
Getting the right stock at the right price, you can forget about the " right time "

Posted by nemesis > 2014-10-07 14:40 | Report Abuse

tis Calvin Tan also another joker talking nonsense trying to show off his investment skill...

Posted by speakup > 2014-10-07 14:43 | Report Abuse

thanks to Tan Teng Boo we have a market crash.
u all got a chance screw him this weekend.

Posted by nemesis > 2014-10-07 14:47 | Report Abuse

pls dun mislead others for your own benefits Calvin Tan...u said Mui companies are bargains...Hv u done ur research well b4 u posted in tis forum??? those are loss making companiess trading above its NTA...OVERVALUED and value for nothing...Plssssss