Posted by apini > 2014-11-03 17:34 | Report Abuse

talk a lot, at the end still do not understand what is the ocf and fcf you are talking about. why not you use a cashflow statement of a fictitious company to explain, rather than beating around at the end we seem to know a bit but don't understand.

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-03 20:00 | Report Abuse

apini: Sorry for making you confused. Me too.
It's not easy to understand the concept of OCF & FCF,moreover I am not in the accountancy or finance field. Furthermore it seems quite difficult in comparing different stocks eg financial stocks like Allianz, Aeoncr & Public bank by using OCF & FCF?
That' why I mentioned at the end of the article I start to prefer to use EPS & DPS growth (>10%-15% in 3-5 years) in the initial step of evaluation of a stock.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-03 21:34 | Report Abuse

对于最后一段所描述的企业，我很有兴趣。不知可否举些例子。谢谢。

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-03 22:35 | Report Abuse

同一个formula来得，搞懂financial statements才来发贴吧，谢谢

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-03 22:36 | Report Abuse

只分成free cash flow to firm ,free cash flow to entity

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-03 23:46 | Report Abuse

bsngpg: 你可参考:
1. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W9jxeUtnxoc/VFaRhjXLmgI/AAAAAAAAAck/JiktKZzy5S4/s1600/资汇%2B-%2BThe%2BBusy%2BWeekly%2B-%2B1%2B11月%2B2014%2B-%2BPage%2B%238%2Bfullpage.jpg
大马盈利预测最佳公司
2. http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Report-Analysis/Continuously-Improvement-EPS-KLSE-Stock.aspx
3. Reuters.com 个股 financial section 里的 1 至 5 年的 revenue,eps & dividend growth summary.

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-03 23:57 | Report Abuse

jeckcw: 都说不同的个人，公司甚至金融网站各有不同营运现金流（OCF）与自由现金流（FCF）的定义和算法.
那你来分享些所谓同一 formula 的 OCF & FCF, 让我们懂懂一下, 还有如何用于股票或公司评估,好吗 ? 谢谢。

Posted by apini > 2014-11-04 00:03 | Report Abuse

ss20_20,

I appreciate very much you willingness to share .thank you very much. i am a very straight forward person, please forgive me if I have unintentionallt hurt you.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-04 00:13 | Report Abuse

ss20-20:谢谢。

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 00:15 | Report Abuse

apini: no worries, I'm ok & thanks for your comment.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-04 00:18 | Report Abuse

大家都写中文，相煎何太急。
20: 加油!

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 00:20 | Report Abuse

bsnpg: 別客气。

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-04 00:23 | Report Abuse

你的努力与贡献有目共睹。

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 00:27 | Report Abuse

bsngpg: 谢谢, 一起加油,投资愉快! :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-04 00:28 | Report Abuse

後面有个谢谢，该是有修养的。或许是一时大意写错几个字吧。

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-04 00:28 | Report Abuse

Good night

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 00:30 | Report Abuse

晚安。

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-04 00:40 | Report Abuse

http://www.ftsmodules.com/public/texts/valuationtutor/VTchp7/topic8/topic8.htm

http://www.cfainstitute.org/learning/products/publications/inv/Documents/equity_chapter4.pptx

FCFF free cash flow to firm

FCFF=OCF + int (1-T) - Inv in capex

ocf=EBIT(1-T)+depreciation+ Amortisation +/- change in working capital

FCFF=EBIT(1-T)+depreciation + Armotosation +/- Changes in WC - Inv in capex


EBITDA=EBIT+depreciation+ Amortisation


FCFF=EBITDA(1-t) +/- change in WC - Capex

OCF是加回interest paid,因为利息属于Investing cash flow ,
中心是这个是after tax cash flow,ocf是已经扣除tax

计算FCFF的意义在于评估线现金是否有流入公司,如果一些高revenue但是是暂时还没收回来的就会negative in change in working capital,先自己illustrate一个简单的cash flow statement你就明白了(example 2013 receivable 100, 2014 receivable －1000,cash flow statement 就出现NEgative 900 ,因为还没现金收回这个盈利

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-04 00:50 | Report Abuse

投资者更应该看FCFE-free cash flow to equity
FCFE- OCF-Inv in Capex +/- net borrowing

因为这个可以知道该公司能有多少现金派股息,在不影响公司的扩充和不贷款不融资的情况下
例子,pintaras,公司可以不贷款，不向股东要钱，扩充营业额，提高公司现金，而且股息越发越多之余，现金储备还能创新高

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-04 01:01 | Report Abuse

一个公司不能将盈收回，所有的盈利也是paper profit,accounting profit
negetive cash flow的公司可以不用看了，连roe也不用理，也有可能是假账，看看龙筹股
cash is fact ,profit is opinion

公司的表现在于能生产多少现金，不是多少accounting profit，这就叫cash rich,当扣除所有负债的现金，这叫net worth
另外一个好处是看公司有没有over trading,我会扣除acquisition，防止over trading risk

投资就是生意，生意就是制造现金，既是现金的风险管理

Posted by sense maker > 2014-11-04 01:14 | Report Abuse

Interest paid is added back as it is considered as financing expense, not investing expense.

FCF to equity is what we should look at mainly as small equity investors but should guard against positive FCF to equity that results primarily from positive financing CF (i.e especially increased borrowings from banks).

This is the same principle as making sure working capital management is sound to ensure no fictitious or unrealizable receivables and stocks.

Lastly, it is important to identify and exclude non-recurring items in our assessment of fair or intrinsic value of a company.

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-04 01:52 | Report Abuse

sorry typo error
interest is belongs to financial cash flow

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 07:29 | Report Abuse

Jeckcw:谢谢分享。你所提的较倾向financial accounting,文中的table 1也有列出。我是门外汉,简快的就是像我说的看Net increase in cash and cash equivalents。请问如何评估 aeoncr,allianz pbb and digi?

Posted by jeckcw > 2014-11-04 09:25 | Report Abuse

要轻松不要投资，要学习不要给藉口自己，千里之行，始于足下，我也是从0自己学起,甚至为了喝牛奶而学习养牛

cash flow告诉你资金流向，如果单看net increase,那是没用的，第一很可能现金靠卖厂地点（一次性收入），或者借贷而来。

在股市不要问别人对任何股票有任何意见，要投资自己去做功课，至少你做了功课，叫别人指正你

简单的告诉你，看竞争优势（企业护城河够深吗，看毛利率对比同行-产品服务的获利能力，看净利率-成本控制和效率），第二看市值买小型股（为什么呢？自己去理解life cycle coounting,你买在公司成熟顶峰区，难成长，而营业额下跌风险高等其他因素自己去发掘理解，不然多看书，本人建议peter lynch-one up on wall street）

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-04 09:44 | Report Abuse

jeckcw: ok, 谢谢你。

Posted by cheongcy > 2014-11-11 00:47 | Report Abuse

搞明白現金流比搞明白每年盈利更重要。 明白了現金流，你就不會再注重net profit, EPS 了。你更會注重operating margin, net capex,等數據。

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-11 09:00 | Report Abuse

cheongcy: 谢谢你的意见。我觉得无论現金流，净盈利或股息成长率，只要搜选到的股只能带来合理回酬就皆大欢喜了。 ：P

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-11 10:17 | Report Abuse

已多次听多人说过同Cheong 类似的说法，是蛮重要的一环。

Posted by ss20_20 > 2014-11-11 11:30 | Report Abuse

同感。