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THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
55,114 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-08-09 20:14 | Report Abuse
This piece of news is already one year old. The bad news has already factored into the current depressed crude oil price which has collapsed by more than 50%!
Now for the positives!
1) Shale Oil Rigs are rendered inoperative!
Last year or two when Crude was US&100 a barrel there were a mushrooming of shale oil rigs in North Dakota. I warned all to dispose Oil & Gas counters. Also to dispose plantation counters like JTiasa as Biodiesel will also be hit hard.
That was then. As of now with Crude prices halved these Shale Oil rigs are now in deep trouble. Prices have now fallen below production cost. Those who started these companies and the banks who provided are now facing imminent bankruptcy!
2) Saudi Arabia & Iran both need Oil at US$100 to balance their budget. And for Iran the threat of going nuclear might tempt Israel to launch an early attack to preempt it. So the state of Iranian Oil is still uncertain.
3) Will Russia give up Ukraine? And will Euro nations & USA remove sanction against Russia. It will drag on in limbo.
4) With Gas at rock bottom prices there is a surge of buyers turning to petrol guzzlers like 4WD & SUV. All US, Japan and even Korean Car companies are ramping up SUV productions! Over here in Malaysia the Sale of MAZDA CX5 has jumped!
This will increase gas usage all over the world.
5) The incentive to go solar is due more to monetary factor than health. No companies will go into business if they are facing losses. The fall of crude has erased the incentive for cheaper solar energy as it is no longer feasible to do so.
6) The World's Population is still growing while crude oil is a limited resource.
In almost all area of life we use oil directly or indirectly
1) Polymer from oil is used in our clothes, pants, jackets, boots, shoes. So we are wearing oil. Every step we take we are consuming oil
2) Every time we travel we are using oil - motor bike, cars, jeeps, buses, trains, ships & planes consumer oil.
3) The very cars we drive are made up of oil. Synthetic rubber for our tyres, the bitumen used to pave our roads are oil based. The vinyl seats & dashboards also made of oil.
4) In healthcare gloves & condoms are also made from synthetic oil.
5) END TIME POPULATION EXPLOSION!
Since oil is a finite commodity while humans continue to multiple. The Writing of Bible already foretold World Population Explosion (Genesis 6:1 "AND IT CAME TO PASS WHEN MEN BEGAN TO MULTIPLY ON THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH" AS IT WAS IN THE DAYS OF NOAH SO SHALL IT BE IN THE DAYS OF THE SON OF MAN (Matthew 24)"
When oil is finally depleted it will be as precious as land in New York, Tokyo or Singapore.
6) Oil is cyclical.
So since Oil is a necessity it survived the Great Depression. Question is. Will mankind survive without cheap oil? Or will men still survive with expensive oil that goes through the roof some future day?
For now relax and go visit www.chick.com