Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 20:52 | Report Abuse

Sorry to say...a real 'hyena' wrote this.
His analysis is completely wrong.

I am chemical engineer and his derivations completely wrong...he had masked his derivation....to use fear tactic to grab as much possible before the results are out.

One can understand why..he needs to go into such great lengths...

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 20:56 | Report Abuse

anyone who needs the details in a legible format...please let me know your e-mail address here..i will send you the excel sheets and will answer your questions.

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 20:57 | Report Abuse

PureBull, GreatStock...appreciate to you have your e-mail address so that I can post it to you guys and you guys can a make a blog out of it...so that everyone can understand. ( I don't know how to make Blogs !).

Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-16 20:57 | Report Abuse

I hope I was wrong. But, based on the P&L it shows that it is indeed difficult for the company to turnaround.

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 21:00 | Report Abuse

send your email to mine: i3investor1@gmail.com

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 21:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-16 21:07 | Report Abuse

How do you derive a 200m profit?

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-16 21:09 | Report Abuse

Post your blog in a legible format first.....
I can use it to explain the corrections.

Its not easy to explain via the thread.

Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-16 21:21 | Report Abuse

Send me your spreadsheet calculation to mystockdeck@gmail.com, and I will have a look.

Posted by cipapo > 2016-01-16 22:40 | Report Abuse

hahaha....this is an amateur writeup by a newbie

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-16 23:10 | Report Abuse

Mystockdeck, I can see that you are assuming refinery margin same for all the quarter and try to extrapolate the result for coming quarter. Trust me, those thing only true in Mathematic classroom and never in financial world. What you should or can do is estimate the gross profit (you know the production capacity, refinery margin - can get from Bloomberg) and minus out the expenses (refinery will have quite fix expenses except Q3 2015 due to MTA of 44 days), finance cost (very high too due to high debt for shell) and depreciation. The tricky part is to estimate is loss/gain from derivative and stock holding gain / loss. You pointed out correctly that Y2014 refinery are very depress at only 2~3 USD per barrel. Margin have improved significantly in Y2015 around 6 ~ 8 USD per barrel in Q2 and Q3 2015. Try to guest how much is the refinery margin in Q4? I cant remember the exact value, I think should be 14~18 USD per barrel. Comparing to just than USD 3 per barrel a year a ago, that is why whole world is talking about refinery party.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-16 23:12 | Report Abuse

Anyway, quarterly should be out in one month time, just wait and we will know the answer. Happy Investing

Posted by cooling > 2016-01-16 23:44 | Report Abuse

mystockdeck thinks he is calculating apples and oranges output....hahaha...sau pei la

Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-17 00:02 | Report Abuse

Yuefei01, spot on! According to Singapore benchmark GRM, refinery margin was $5.8 in Q1, $4.8 in Q2, $6.3 in Q3 and average at $8.6 in Q4. The wild card is still on the stock holding gain/loss in Q4 as crude price has been fallen 18%.

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-17 00:31 | Report Abuse

stockholding loss is the most easiest to compute

Posted by mystockdeck > 2016-01-17 00:32 | Report Abuse

In 3Q2015, even though the GRM is $6.3, still $138 million of stock holding loss due 23% drop in crude price overshadowed previous 1H2015 stock holding gain of $101 million. Anyway, let's wait for the figure in one month time then.

Posted by AlwaysCurious > 2016-01-19 11:13 | Report Abuse

Probability, Thanks for the heads up! Could u please email the figures in a spreadsheet to ghodge1965@gmail.com?
Much appreciated

Posted by Probability > 2016-01-19 20:54 | Report Abuse

hi guys...sorry I cannot reveal the calculation as I am at a huge loss currently.... will delete my derivation above soon. Good luck...and no fear...

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-02 12:31 | Report Abuse

my god, RM1.80 is super depress price, all SHELL holders good luck. Lucky I did not buy last year when lure to............