@dragon328, thanks for enlightening..looks like the call warrants is the cause of their low TP

market has to realize that by end of 2026, its not that the earning contribution from powerseraya will shrink to zero

it has to be significantly profitable as else new players has no incentive for such huge investments..

laying cable from sarawak to singapore is no cheap investment and requires significant depreciation & maintenance cost

amazing..till 2026!

Posted by dragon328 > Nov 24, 2023 8:48 AM | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, the strong performance from PowerSeraya in Q1 FY2024 is well expected as I have explained earlier in numerous occasions. PowerSeraya gross margin is not directly affected by gas prices while its revenue is more directly linked to gas prices.

Its gross margin is mostly locked in retails contracts (that last from 6 months to 2 years) and vesting contracts. Retails contract margin is determined based on supply and demand, while vesting contract margin is determined by EMA every 2 years.

That's why I expect PowerSeraya strong earnings to continue into 2026 at least, then we shall see how the peak demand growth will be able to match the scheduled commissioning of Keppel new CCGT unit in 2026.

in a nutshell, with current available power plant that's not going to change till 2025, the profit is purely dependent on demand, higher the demand higher the profit

added bonus to YTLP profit would be if the natural gas price goes even higher as they had hedged at low price for long term. Considering that Q2 24' has higher NG price compared to Q1 24', their profit will likely have this added bonus...

the lower USEP is due to cheaper natural gas cost shared by all power gen plants...it shows why its meaningless to look into USEP, all that matters is the marginal unit efficiency, i.e demand vs efficient power plant available

@cgtan, i think revenue is lower due to lower USEP but margin is higher due to higher marginal unit (as demand is rising forcing usage of lesser and lesser efficient power plant that is not used earlier)

i think 2Q 24' will have even higher contribution from powerseraya from a much stronger SGD vs MYR

slts expected 1.3 cents..LOL!

market was only expecting an EPS of 7 cents a little higher than Q3 23'.....this is whopping 50% higher than expectations...

RM 4 on the way....if you all see the 17th April 2023 investor presentation, its so much like dragon328 write up....dragon328 is no ordinary forumer

hope it gaps up 2.50 tomorrow...

congrats to all those who held tight! Thank you so much dragon328 :)

Found it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-11-20/ytl-corporation-s-yeoh-on-business-operations-video

i seems like the interviewer trying to get hints on HSR bidding but Francis keeping his lip sealed..i only saw half way...no new information..

he seems very optimistic with YTL & YTLP...

with such interview i doubt the earnings results will be below expectation..or at the least price will not drop after results (whatever it is)...this is my main take away

link has not come out on any website...as it just happened..may bloomberg may have a website...dont know how to find it

Francis just gave an interview on Bloomberg asia

thanks dragon328 for the confidence

@unknownspecies, i also almost gave up when it went below 1.90 on 23rd Oct...it was really tough to hold on, i sold and bought back the same day

good closing, its super strong...have a great weekend

thanks to dragon328 and OTB that enable me to stick with YTLP till now

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2023/11/976562/ytl-power-and-ytl-corp-could-be-new-constituents-fbm-klci

YTL's Yes 5G is Apple's latest network partner in Malaysia, offering uncapped speed and data

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2023/11/974311/ytls-yes-5g-apples-latest-network-partner-malaysia

I think if they advertise really well, they can capture higher market share easily....

I like YTL communications' boldness...

.....

Telcos should not impose additional charges on users switching to 5G, says YTL Communications CEO

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/688671

Thanks OTB..

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-recalls-envoy-israel-over-gaza-bombardment-2023-11-01/

Perhaps they will soon stop relying on gas supply from Israel

Good for Attarat power plant of YTL

yes, the fittest seems to be one of the dumbest religion unfortunately...

i am just afraid if there is rebirth, i dont want to end up in planet of the apes...trying my best for people to wake up

Empathy for those far away but no sympathy for those amongst us?

https://focusmalaysia.my/empathy-for-those-far-away-but-no-sympathy-for-those-amongst-us/

Talking about empathy and human rights, why not teach our students that it is not right to dispossess the Orang Asal of their ancestral lands and give away the lands to companies owned by the political elites and their cronies which forcibly displaced the Orang Asal from their ancestral lands like what happened to the Palestinians?

It is rather unfortunate that there is an element of religiosity when it comes to Malaysia’s stand in the Middle East. Didn’t Putin bomb towns and cities, killing children, women and the elderly?

Where was our outrage against the carnage in Ukraine? Did we propose a week of solidarity in schools? Is the blood of a Ukrainian child any different from the Palestinian child?

exactly

and Malaysia can possibly be a very good example of this in the future

malays are naturally good humble caring people, but..i do not know what the future holds

Posted by EngineeringProfit > Oct 31, 2023 4:00 PM | Report Abuse

Quote: "...their tolerance for other religious belief is zero"

Their children and followers are literally being ruthlessly brainwashed to "rubbish" other religion

when this religion becomes significant majority in any country, the basic rights of any other religion practised will vaporize gradually

look at Pakistan, such a small christian population..church bombing is still taking place..

basic human rights you see practised by european & US will vaporize when this particular religion comes in power..

their tolerance for other religious belief is zero..

absolutely zero

when one side is using civilians as shield and attacks another, there can be nothing noble in their intentions, nothing can justify these actions including illegal occupation...

these attackers are the real pure evil who is ready to sacrifice innocent children for their sick religious conditioning...

its these same innocent children who are brainwashed, conditioned from young to hate the other religion to the extent of sacrificing their own life when they grow up...jihad..the cycle will never end

this particular religion is not a religion of peace..but purely an invisible war with other religion

war is unavoidable in this case

Posted by Sslee > Oct 31, 2023 10:06 AM | Report Abuse

War is human tragic. No one should feel happy over any war.

EMA noted that the power system’s peak demand is forecast to rise every year over the next five years.

pity singaporean, they have to live such a complicated life due to power constraints

best is to live in Malaysia and earn in SGD , kinda like YTLP ;)!

.......

Singapore to reward residents who use less power under pilot programme

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2023/10/24/singapore-to-reward-residents-who-use-less-power-under-pilot-programme

agree dragon328, even the second 5G network in similar situation

World shift to clean energy is unstoppable, IEA report says

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67198206

Posted by dragon328 > Oct 26, 2023 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

@Alex Chua, yes there are plans to ensure continuation of strong earnings for YTL Power to continue beyond FY2025:
1) WTE plant to start from 2026
2) Digital bank to turn in profit from 2026
3) Green data centre 1st phase to start contributing profit from FY2024
4) Subsequent phases of green data centre to contribute profits from FY2025
5) Wessex Waters earnings to rebound from Q4 FY2024 after next water tariff hikes
6) Wessex Waters RCV to expand substantially for next regulatory period from April 2025 to ensure earnings to expand meaningfully from FY2026
7) Potential win of new solar power projects in Malaysia as Malaysia plans to roll out some 8,000MW of solar power projects by 2030 and another 25,000-30,000MW by 2050
8) Potential export of RE to Singapore from 2027
9) Meaningful earnings contribution from UK property development from 2026 once interest rates there retreat to normalised levels
10) Potential win of the new gas plant tender in Singapore to expand PowerSeraya earnings from 2028

''YTL Power currently has gas contracts in place, and the earliest of these contracts is set to expire at the end of 2025, with some extending as far as 2028 or 2029''

amazing...

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/10/21/singapore-dollar-at-all-time-high-against-ringgit-on-policy-gap

closing 1.99, once YTL stabilizes YTLP shall shoot up..

hope YTLP could decouple from YTL soon

thanks for the link @dragon328

Bank Negara to begin cutting rates in early 1H2024

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/681761

with local interest rates already peaking, cost of equity will be lower

as such dividend yield of YTLP will be too attractive for the market

further, its one of the few stocks in Bursa with highest international exposure - a shield against potential weakening MYR

https://www.opp.today/5g/yes-5g-finally-offers-esim-heres-how-to-switch-from-a-physical-sim/41512/

YTLP was actually not even correcting if not because of YTL which was intentionally brought down for the married deal (70M) transaction at 1.57...

the fundamentals are simply too strong for YTLP

wow...interesting

Posted by pang72 > Aug 30, 2023 4:53 PM | Report Abuse

Foreign fund bought up 60 to 70mils shares last 5 mins

unlike hng33 who will give super promoting comments as if he will hold in to next 3 years and the next day he will sell and come out with negative comments...anyway, everyone have different strategies...no right or wrong in stock market...its up to them how they survive...

of course he is also very cunning and will sell when he promotes too hard...lol! but thats ok...

once he sold the stocks he never criticize it and is also very gentle in his words / comments...he is super sharp...and have reasonable ethics..and make the forum lively with funny comments..

sifu pang72 is one of the best or the best forumer in i3....

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/08/21/bmi-revises-upward-vehicle-sales-forecast-in-malaysia-for-2023

i think there is going to be EV vehicles explosion in the market, energy demand is going to skyrocket both in Singapore and Malaysia...

and Renewable energy is the theme for the next 10 years...

can someone do a very conservative valuation of MBMR purely based on FY2023 earnings of Perodua (at 20% stake) with the same PER valuation given to UMW by SIME?

i could not find out what exactly was Perodua's earnings for last year

https://www.statista.com/statistics/949523/perodua-profit/

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/680129

It noted that the offer values UMW at 13.3 times financial year 2024 (FY2024) price-to-earnings ratio, which is at a slight premium to UMW’s five-year historical mean of 12.9 times and at 1.3 times FY2023’s book value.

the support is extremely strong.....

true..those who hold tight..well done! selling while having dragon328's genuine advising would be a dumb move

Posted by troy88 > Aug 25, 2023 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

Cunning operator and sharks ate up bilis for breakfast with sell on news scare tactics..