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8 comment(s). Last comment by sosfinance 2016-08-08 15:26

Apollo Ang

3,181 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-06-14 19:27 | Report Abuse

don't follow kenanga.....sms me buy all dead. also ock-wa already up a lot

ttgipoh

262 posts

Posted by ttgipoh > 2016-06-14 22:51 | Report Abuse

there is a motivator in the counter

Apollo Ang

3,181 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-06-15 14:21 | Report Abuse

kenanga recommend bj food at 2.10 now 1.70, ptaras 3.70 now 3.40,sapres 1.65 now 1.05 all dead within this few months

dami

57 posts

Posted by dami > 2016-06-15 16:38 | Report Abuse

koon is in

sosfinance

1,305 posts

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-06-15 16:44 | Report Abuse

@Apollo, thanks for the warning.
Other research firms that cover OCK are RHB, Inter-Pac, Malacca Securities and CLSA.
1) I look at stocks from different perspective (sometime), I use their report as reference to check my own calculation
2) Market cap of OCK today is about RM650m at 82 sen, it has about net cash (include trade debt) of RM300m.
3) Actually, I like the tower company biz, the one in Myanmar (sustainable, good EBITDA @ 65%, high profit margin) which hopefully they will build up to 3,000 towers (920 towers to complete by end of 2016)
4) The private placements of RM64m lately used to purchase brownfield towers in Indochina (speculated to be in Vietnam)
5) Growth in LTE & network maintenance in Malaysia and Indonesia (18% market share in both countries).

Frankly, I am looking at a horizon of at least 2-3 years, as OCK is implementing (3), (4) and (5). I prefer the warrants due to leveraging on the mother, with 2-4times upside.

Disclaimer: It is just a theory, a stock theory (not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold).

dami

57 posts

Posted by dami > 2016-06-15 21:57 | Report Abuse

be careful of koon. sos is his parter.

Apollo Ang

3,181 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-06-15 23:28 | Report Abuse

kon usuly buy low liquidity stocks,so he can easily corner the stock. ock he won't buy cos the paid up capital is a lot and many retailers got

sosfinance

1,305 posts

Posted by sosfinance > 2016-08-08 15:26 | Report Abuse

This is a medium term stock (3-5 years) as the initial years, earnings is coming in slowly (due to interest on loan and depreciation). The earnings will improve yearly as the loan is repaid gradually from the rental of towers. Another area that analysts missed or being conservative, is that the growth in tenancy ratio, which according to the management, it can grow as high as 1.8 times for Myanmar and to about 1.5 times for Vietnam brownfield project, which already giving about 1.25 times.

Growth comes from:
1) rental yield from more towers every year

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Myanmar 920 1420 1920 2420 2920

Tenancy 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8

Vietnam - 1938 1938 1938 1983

Tenancy ratio - 1.27 1.32 1.37 1.42

Malaysia 133 150 160 170 180 (assume slow growth)

2015 2016
2) Solar (MW) 3.3 5.0 (Room to go up, depends on utility company)

3) maintenance of towers & upgrades

Indonesia growing double digits
Myanmar gradual growing as towers getting old
Vietnam growing after acquisition

4) Loan interest will be reducing as it is paid down

Loan for Myanmar project USD40.2m (7 years)
Loan for Vietnam project USD30m (7 years)
Existing Loan raised RM80m (information not available, RM40m is current)

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