Posted by sosfinance > 2016-09-28 11:08 | Report Abuse

USD, Euro, Sterling, Yen. Which one do we choose, between now and next 1-3 years? And why?

(BI, Bloomberg interviewer, GS Gary Shilling)

BI: General View on Economy
GS: Slow Growth going forward (Globalisation is working off the excesses), winter of discontent. People will push of fiscal stimulus when monetary policy is not effective.
BI: Is big fiscal stimulus coming?
GS: Infra or Military? We don't know until the new president is elected.
BI: Changes in market this day, liquidity is down, how much concern you?
GS: It does effect the price of assets. And spill over the economy (no longer that much). Expansion since 2009, we have 2 worlds, one the financial world (effected by central banks) and the Goods and Services (going through the age of deleveraging), there is a major DIVERGENCE. Purchasing power drop, and they don't own much stocks (not much effect to them).
BI: Into Cash GS?
GS: 50% into Cash. If stagnant, we need a big pile of cash. US is looking at BOJ and EU to experiment with ZIRP, US is unlikely going into them.
BI: Is economy a physic? Formula still working?
GS: It doesn't work temporary. Speed up by tech. Manufacturing from EU & USA to China and EM, cause polarisation.
BI: Employment issue, any solution.
GS: Is a transition period. Not much policy can do much. example, auto, over paid sector.
BI: Gold
GS: I never understand Gold. I am neutral. Deflation - Age of Deleveraging. 1998 wrote a book and 2010 another.
BI: How to explain to your kid on Deflation?