Posted by andyhard > 2016-10-13 18:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Goldeneggs,

I have read some of your articles and benefit from it. But, sorry to say I am not totally agree after you have compared both evergreen and Hevea. To be frank, I have owned both.

First, evergreen is about to kickstart its stream of revenue. Why I said so?
1) RTA (Ready To assemble Furtinure). The line just completed May 2016. In general, it will take 6 months for the line to stabilise. Thus, we yet to see the revenue kick in in 2QFY16 result. But What about Q3? In fact, Evergreen have one RTA line and this is the expansion. Will the gross margin being increased? I believe so

2) Do you know that why Evergreen revenue has been low compared to its peak performance in its glorious time? First, it has stopped one of the fibreboard line which has output of 60m. It is about 20% of current Malaysia output. Secondly, the particleboard line has been stopped for more than a year. It is because it is installing a new line in another plant and plan to consolidate it. It will be operational end of the year.

When you see Q4 report onwards, you will know evergreen in fact is undervalue and my target price for FY17 will be around RM1.6

I have sold evergreen this year around RM1.6 and i just bought back again at 0.93 to 0.94 a week ago based on TA and of cause FA I have done.

Anyway, I am not saying Hevea not undervalue. It has been pressed down and I see it will continue to shine due to demand from its higher quality particleboard.

Both shares has made me handsome profit. I am glad to own them. I hope this round they will give me good christmas gift. Hahaha..so fast preparing for Christmas.

Posted by kkchoo79 > 2016-10-13 19:19 | Report Abuse

Golden Egg & Andyhard, No one is right or wrong. Both of you are expert, nice sharing.
Thanks

Posted by Benjamin_8888 > 2016-10-13 19:27 | Report Abuse

Golden egg is this article free or need to pay you RM250?

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-10-14 00:26 | Report Abuse

Benjamin, time to pay me :)

Posted by iloveshare128 > 2016-10-14 08:52 | Report Abuse

this has again proven that this joker GoldenEggs is a half-full tin but wanted to act like a full tin expert... he has not studied Evergreen well enough before he commented.. good to see Andyhard bashed him hard with the 2 facts given (which i was about to comment also)... GoldenEggs joker, with this kind of analysis quality, how dare you ask for RM250? what a joke.. i wont even pay for RM2.50...

After Dudu bashed him well in the RGB analysis, this is another bullshit analysis..
i know your intention, you just want to "promote & goreng" hevea but still pretend like others who bought evergreen are lame speculators (but yourself as smart investor.. pui)...

i have to say both Evergreen and Hevea have their own strengths...
just take one simple valuation, lets say P/BV... you will see that Evergreen has advantage over hevea... of course i know hevea is now net cash company so it has better enterprise multiple.. but what i dun like about your analysis is that.. u are too biased.. keep showing the good side of hevea but never mention (or maybe you are not aware too) about the advantage of evergreen over hevea....

last advice to you: 别在这里献丑了，因为真的很丑。。

Posted by andyhard > 2016-10-14 11:06 | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,

I have no offence to anyone. But, please allow me to share my experience with you guys.

Evergreen
1) What I see in investment is RETURN. No other than this. I keep reminding myself not to fall in love with share. This is very very important. Because LOVE is blind. Evergreen provides a stronger return because of the investment yet to be reflected. It is already done but yet to be reflected and market is always NOT efficient in something not SEEN yet. From previous experience, the management already realised how important it is to be COST EFFECTIVE. This is why the last 2 years they have poor FCF due to INVESTMENT. Now, the fruit is ready to ripe. Thus, from return point of view, Evergreen win in this point.

2) Management also realised that important of going for quality. Quality not only ensures of pricing power but also means reduced cost (less failed products). Thus, they are installing new particleboard line for higher grade particleboard. At the same time, they realised the new market of RTA. This is why they expanded on it

3) They try to consolidate their factories to be efficient to improve their margins.

Thus, in conclusion. I would say FY17 will very exciting when Evergreen announce their result. There are the same management that have bring Evergreen to summit before. I believe this round it will be eye clearing result

Hevea
1) Needless to say, for the past 2 years they have shown to everyone how good it is. In fact, when I bought Hevea, everyone very worry about their debts. But, when I see they can generate good FCF I already bought in thanks to my friend point this share to me.

2)But, when we talking about growth, I would errr....why? Because it is already been shown. What else can be shown? Yes, there are. Gradual improvement on volumes. So, this is why Hevea was beaten down a while ago. This is same as TOPGLOVE. Why do you buy in again? Well, I did not say Hevea is bad. Hevea is already been very GOOD. It is just growth might not be that significant but the price being beaten down.

SO, the story is just as SIMPLE as that. Dont complicate it. Remember RETURN is the key.

I personally feel CALM is the important point of Investment. I do not care is white or bad cat, as long as they know to catch rat.

Thanks.

Posted by feimah > 2016-10-14 11:47 | Report Abuse

hi andyhard,
thanks for sharing

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-10-14 12:07 | Report Abuse

Just chill~ Time will tell the truth and please don't express so much anger. I'm also learning

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-10-14 12:09 | Report Abuse

What you say i have to agree, evergreen has yet to see return on investment. But, please remember that it's part of speculation if u predict the earnings of the future, which is really unpredictable. My valuation just based on all the current fundamentals, which has zero speculation.

Posted by younginvestor92 > 2016-10-14 12:12 | Report Abuse

P/book ratio not very useful for us normal investor lah, unless you're talking about 1 to 3 ratio then it might drive investment return, those below 1.5 not indicative of anything.

Posted by iloveshare128 > 2016-10-14 13:12 | Report Abuse

good one andyhard... to also add to what you mentioned above - evergreen is upgrading the particleboard machinery to be able to churn out thinner particleboard at higher profit margin (niche market).. and the RTA lines setup is in progress and we know that RTA gives much better margin compared to pure MDF (the current biggest portion of revenue for Evergreen).. and don't forget about the management is also improving the value-added MDF like veneers which also give better margin... so i don't agree with what GoldenEggs said that these are "prediction of future" as these are indeed real and are something that is really happening... and also like what Andy said, they are moving plants and integrate them together in one same venue to provide synergistic efficiency and cost savings... if u look at how the management control the cost, you will be amazed... again, i am not saying that Hevea is bad.. but i just dun like of you not doing enough homework but badmouth evergreen without solid base... that's all...

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-10-14 15:24 | Report Abuse

It's your investment choice lol~ ROIC,earning yield, PE, FCF and free cash all the facts swing to HEVEA, while Evergreen also a good company, what you mentioned are all uncertainty or future. I never say EVER is bad company, just inferior to HEVEA. If you're happy with your free cash yield like Fixed Deposit then go for it, i'm not stopping you :D

Posted by aaroncjs > 2016-10-14 22:53 | Report Abuse

if investment is just all about looking at the historical financial ratio, warren buffet can be easily beaten by an IBM computer ^^

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-10-16 22:39 | Report Abuse

Lazy to argue with u..... Time will tell

Posted by nickychang > 2016-10-17 00:03 | Report Abuse

many ways to see a value of a company. its very subjective. can use FCF, ta or fa, most importantly, what market is demanding. volume and movement will tell. which model is most suit u. keep going with your own model. profit is everything. U can make money then ok already, no need compare this n that. =) own opinion

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-12-07 01:35 | Report Abuse

Hi, iloveshare, enjoying your evergreen? Yes, im tin kosong, you are share expert. My Hevea has gone up from 1.27 to 1.44. :-), looks like you are a big milo tin, pong pong pong!

Posted by GoldenEggs > 2016-12-07 01:36 | Report Abuse

By the way, my analysis not worth 25 cents, but i can pay you the gain from hevea to cover up your loss.