The journey of finding golden eggs
[分析冷眼大师选股] Heveaboard vs Evergreen
今天要说的就是 Heveaboard 和 Evergreen, 到底投资那一家会比较安全，比较有前途，还有就是比较有价值。
其实，这几天看到 Evergreen 因为美金大起而股价上涨，我非常不解。就算美金上涨，公司长期没有业务发展的话，能赚大钱吗？也许这也是因为大部分投资者没办在股市赚大钱的原因，今天钢铁价起就买钢铁股，明天美金上，就买出口股，跳来跳去，花拳绣腿，能赚大钱吗？ 倒不如持有基本面强劲，且有发展的公司，紧握不放，不是更轻松赚钱？
在离我上次发表时 Hevea 的股价从 1.27 上到 1.42，说明了很多人已经开始看到 Hevea 的价值，还有投资风险到底有多低。Paying a dollar for 50 cents, 就是 Hevea, 我很肯定 Hevea 现在的盈利觉对是这个概念。如果盈利下跌或上涨，那就要重新计算。
最好笑就是有些部落客，跟别人说不可以买 GKENT 和 GADANG 因为现在是高价区。。。一间公司是不是在高价区是由价值决定的不是起了100% 就是在高价区。离我上次分享 GKENT 到今天 2.47（23/9） 起到了 2.75。那是不是在高价区？ 起了很多了勒！我想说的是，Gkent 的盈利只要一直上，我是会紧抓不放，而且现在离 Gkent 该有的价格还有一段距离，Margin of safety 没有一块买两块那么高了，但是还是可以买的。
我可以跟你说 Gkent 至少值 RM 4.00, 很多股市新手很喜欢看 PE 来决定贵还是便宜，但是我想说如果一家公司高债务，低 PE 你要买？一家公司必须投入非常多的盈利在 Capital expenditure 上面来维持盈利，没有什么 Cash Flow， 你要买? 公司效率普普, 低 PE 就买？
PE 只是反映了公司的盈利和价钱，还有很多其他东西比如说公司的发展，product 的抗竞争的能力我们需要考虑。
说到 Product 的素质，HEVEA 非常努力的努力 move up value chain, 生产更多环保且高素质的 Particleboard, 我们也可以发现，连中国这么竞争的经商环境，HEVEA 也能分一杯羹，说明了这家公司的竞争能力~ 从Profit Margin 不断上升就能看到公司在这方面的努力，比起 HEVEA 的 14%，EVERGREEN 的8%就逊色了。
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Goldeneggs/104806.jsp
从这篇大家可以看一下我分享的HEVEA基本面~
然后现在我们来看 EVERGREEN 的基本面:
债务这几年已经大幅下降，但是还不是一家Net Cash Company，所以这方面 HEVEA 取胜
ROIC：效率方面 12.2%，很大方面在于生产比较便宜，低素质的 Product 所以需要的成本比较高，盈利比较低还有量比较大
Cash Flow：现金流动还是很不错的，不过跟放在 FD 差不多 3.54%。
Revenue 也是几年没有什么起色了~
当了解了 Evergreen 的基本面后，就非常费解，到底这些投机者在做什么？美金起，就想赚快钱。明明就有一家好好的 HEVEA, NET CASH, ROIC:29.7, Cash Flow 在 FD 的五倍？HEVEA 还有一个比较大的优势，就是它小，当一家比较小的公司要增加一倍的价值比起一家大的公司比较容易，而股票翻倍的几率较高。
当看到论坛的投机者还在比较HEVEA 还是 EVERGREEn 比较好时，我心里就在想，怪不得,毕竟股市是一个 zero sum game, 有人赢就一定要有人输。
我崇尚不去预测公司的盈利，单纯看公司的价值，买有减价的公司如 HEVEA，如果盈利下跌，少亏，盈利上升，肯定赚大钱。
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3 people like this. Showing 17 of 17 comments
Golden Egg & Andyhard, No one is right or wrong. Both of you are expert, nice sharing.
Thanks
2016-10-13 19:19
this has again proven that this joker GoldenEggs is a half-full tin but wanted to act like a full tin expert... he has not studied Evergreen well enough before he commented.. good to see Andyhard bashed him hard with the 2 facts given (which i was about to comment also)... GoldenEggs joker, with this kind of analysis quality, how dare you ask for RM250? what a joke.. i wont even pay for RM2.50...
After Dudu bashed him well in the RGB analysis, this is another bullshit analysis..
i know your intention, you just want to "promote & goreng" hevea but still pretend like others who bought evergreen are lame speculators (but yourself as smart investor.. pui)...
i have to say both Evergreen and Hevea have their own strengths...
just take one simple valuation, lets say P/BV... you will see that Evergreen has advantage over hevea... of course i know hevea is now net cash company so it has better enterprise multiple.. but what i dun like about your analysis is that.. u are too biased.. keep showing the good side of hevea but never mention (or maybe you are not aware too) about the advantage of evergreen over hevea....
last advice to you: 别在这里献丑了，因为真的很丑。。
2016-10-14 08:52
Hi Guys,
I have no offence to anyone. But, please allow me to share my experience with you guys.
Evergreen
1) What I see in investment is RETURN. No other than this. I keep reminding myself not to fall in love with share. This is very very important. Because LOVE is blind. Evergreen provides a stronger return because of the investment yet to be reflected. It is already done but yet to be reflected and market is always NOT efficient in something not SEEN yet. From previous experience, the management already realised how important it is to be COST EFFECTIVE. This is why the last 2 years they have poor FCF due to INVESTMENT. Now, the fruit is ready to ripe. Thus, from return point of view, Evergreen win in this point.
2) Management also realised that important of going for quality. Quality not only ensures of pricing power but also means reduced cost (less failed products). Thus, they are installing new particleboard line for higher grade particleboard. At the same time, they realised the new market of RTA. This is why they expanded on it
3) They try to consolidate their factories to be efficient to improve their margins.
Thus, in conclusion. I would say FY17 will very exciting when Evergreen announce their result. There are the same management that have bring Evergreen to summit before. I believe this round it will be eye clearing result
Hevea
1) Needless to say, for the past 2 years they have shown to everyone how good it is. In fact, when I bought Hevea, everyone very worry about their debts. But, when I see they can generate good FCF I already bought in thanks to my friend point this share to me.
2)But, when we talking about growth, I would errr....why? Because it is already been shown. What else can be shown? Yes, there are. Gradual improvement on volumes. So, this is why Hevea was beaten down a while ago. This is same as TOPGLOVE. Why do you buy in again? Well, I did not say Hevea is bad. Hevea is already been very GOOD. It is just growth might not be that significant but the price being beaten down.
SO, the story is just as SIMPLE as that. Dont complicate it. Remember RETURN is the key.
I personally feel CALM is the important point of Investment. I do not care is white or bad cat, as long as they know to catch rat.
Thanks.
2016-10-14 11:06
Just chill~ Time will tell the truth and please don't express so much anger. I'm also learning
2016-10-14 12:07
What you say i have to agree, evergreen has yet to see return on investment. But, please remember that it's part of speculation if u predict the earnings of the future, which is really unpredictable. My valuation just based on all the current fundamentals, which has zero speculation.
2016-10-14 12:09
P/book ratio not very useful for us normal investor lah, unless you're talking about 1 to 3 ratio then it might drive investment return, those below 1.5 not indicative of anything.
2016-10-14 12:12
good one andyhard... to also add to what you mentioned above - evergreen is upgrading the particleboard machinery to be able to churn out thinner particleboard at higher profit margin (niche market).. and the RTA lines setup is in progress and we know that RTA gives much better margin compared to pure MDF (the current biggest portion of revenue for Evergreen).. and don't forget about the management is also improving the value-added MDF like veneers which also give better margin... so i don't agree with what GoldenEggs said that these are "prediction of future" as these are indeed real and are something that is really happening... and also like what Andy said, they are moving plants and integrate them together in one same venue to provide synergistic efficiency and cost savings... if u look at how the management control the cost, you will be amazed... again, i am not saying that Hevea is bad.. but i just dun like of you not doing enough homework but badmouth evergreen without solid base... that's all...
2016-10-14 13:12
It's your investment choice lol~ ROIC,earning yield, PE, FCF and free cash all the facts swing to HEVEA, while Evergreen also a good company, what you mentioned are all uncertainty or future. I never say EVER is bad company, just inferior to HEVEA. If you're happy with your free cash yield like Fixed Deposit then go for it, i'm not stopping you :D
2016-10-14 15:24
if investment is just all about looking at the historical financial ratio, warren buffet can be easily beaten by an IBM computer ^^
2016-10-14 22:53
many ways to see a value of a company. its very subjective. can use FCF, ta or fa, most importantly, what market is demanding. volume and movement will tell. which model is most suit u. keep going with your own model. profit is everything. U can make money then ok already, no need compare this n that. =) own opinion
2016-10-17 00:03
Hi, iloveshare, enjoying your evergreen? Yes, im tin kosong, you are share expert. My Hevea has gone up from 1.27 to 1.44. :-), looks like you are a big milo tin, pong pong pong!
2016-12-07 01:35
By the way, my analysis not worth 25 cents, but i can pay you the gain from hevea to cover up your loss.
2016-12-07 01:36
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andyhard
Hi Goldeneggs,
I have read some of your articles and benefit from it. But, sorry to say I am not totally agree after you have compared both evergreen and Hevea. To be frank, I have owned both.
First, evergreen is about to kickstart its stream of revenue. Why I said so?
1) RTA (Ready To assemble Furtinure). The line just completed May 2016. In general, it will take 6 months for the line to stabilise. Thus, we yet to see the revenue kick in in 2QFY16 result. But What about Q3? In fact, Evergreen have one RTA line and this is the expansion. Will the gross margin being increased? I believe so
2) Do you know that why Evergreen revenue has been low compared to its peak performance in its glorious time? First, it has stopped one of the fibreboard line which has output of 60m. It is about 20% of current Malaysia output. Secondly, the particleboard line has been stopped for more than a year. It is because it is installing a new line in another plant and plan to consolidate it. It will be operational end of the year.
When you see Q4 report onwards, you will know evergreen in fact is undervalue and my target price for FY17 will be around RM1.6
I have sold evergreen this year around RM1.6 and i just bought back again at 0.93 to 0.94 a week ago based on TA and of cause FA I have done.
Anyway, I am not saying Hevea not undervalue. It has been pressed down and I see it will continue to shine due to demand from its higher quality particleboard.
Both shares has made me handsome profit. I am glad to own them. I hope this round they will give me good christmas gift. Hahaha..so fast preparing for Christmas.
2016-10-13 18:38