Posted by pussycats > 2017-05-11 12:42 | Report Abuse

Wow, very good analysis. Market will price in future growth in current price. That's why Topglov price is beyond realistic price.

Posted by Mark Goh > 2017-05-11 12:46 | Report Abuse

True but the reality is the market is pricing above 14% cagr growth and that's an example of irrational exuberance!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-11 12:50 | Report Abuse

what to call this kind of work?

the tail wagging the dog?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-11 13:01 | Report Abuse

trying to impress using magic formulas?

I wonder if you understand the following...

the company is still adding capacity.
it is no where near terminal yet.

and with positive CAGR and positive margins....there is no way this share will drop by half unless there is a World war 3.

That is also the reason I hate number crunchers unless they have business sense to go with it.

Posted by Mark Goh > 2017-05-11 13:05 | Report Abuse

Capacity needs sales to translate it into revenue. I believe I was being generous to provide the range of cagr in the analysis.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-11 17:55 | Report Abuse

DCF can be used to justify Gdex at PE 100 and Top Glove down to $ 2.50........you go figure.


goh....

its called the tail wagging the dog.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-05-11 18:21 | Report Abuse

Well lets wait for your business sense to write a sensible analysis. I haven't seen one yet.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-05-11 21:02 | Report Abuse

yeoh


you haven't seen because you got no sense.

very simple explanation.

one more thing...If Harta can produce good results, so can top glove.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-05-12 12:10 | Report Abuse

wait, you saying 'sense' as in me reading your mind? Oh for sure I don't have that sense. Congrats if you have that sense

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-08-14 19:58 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy,

Yes capacity is not reached, but you think whole world only got top glove? Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega all expanding, and they are expanding very aggressively.

Margins for all of them are being compressed year on year.

Rubber stocks are definitely overpriced, Hartalega is at best a 20PE stock and Top glove a 15 PE. Not their current price.