Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2020-12-13 10:40 | Report Abuse

呵呵

Anyway.

I raise 2 key questions.

1. mRNA technology instruct antibody production. Could antibody cure already infected patients? Theoretically it must be able to. If we human as a race discover that it does (cure patients) in 2-3 weeks time, then glove story is actually ended.
By the way, Moderna founding vision is to replace drug using mRNA tech.

2. During vaccination, the team use 1 glove, 2 gloves, or 3 gloves to administer inoculation per person? Or it is like China where they use 1 glove per thousand?

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-13 10:54 | Report Abuse

THE DEMAND FOR GLOVES ALREADY PEAK, COUPLE WITH SHARP INCREASE IN CAPACITIES & COMPETITIONS & VACCINES COMING WHICH IS A RECIPE FOR SHARE PRICE COLLAPSE FOR GLOVES COMPANIES LOH!!

TheStar Sat, Dec 12, 2020 08:10am - 1 day ago

Peak gloves

WHEN the price of crude oil was onward to its historical highs, we were introduced to the phrase “peak oil.”

Peak oil was to show how production of crude oil was at its high and why the world will not see oil gushers in the frequency it has in the past. Well production did rise, given the historic prices that made marginal fields, deepwater and fracking viable.

But demand unfortunately did not keep up because the high prices meant the world started looking at alternative and renewable energy.

Like high oil prices back in the day where the oil majors were sloshing in cash, the same now may be said of our glove manufacturers.

The role and importance of gloves cannot be understated in the global fight against the Covid-19 pandemic although there is much room for improvement in terms of how some in the industry handle the welfare of their workers.

Top Glove Corp Bhd’s extraordinary profit of RM2.38bil in the first quarter of its 2021 financial year was symbolic of high demand and prices, and it was more than the RM1.87bil it made for the whole of its 2020 financial year.

There is no doubt other glove companies will be making super-normal profit for some time but it will be unfathomable to expect that trajectory of profit increases to continue.

As the world starts rolling out vaccines and as more people get inoculated against Covid-19, then the catalyst for the huge profits would increasingly get muted. The argument that the vaccine rollout will require the use of gloves is true but much of that will be one time use. The world has a population of 7.8 billion people and 16 billion pieces of gloves, or 32 billion if there needs to be two injections, to administer a vaccine to each and every person. Top Glove alone makes way more than that.

Then there is competition from new suppliers. Germany is starting to make rubber gloves seeing the demand and profits companies are making, which would indicate that the barriers of entry are not high for a business that can be automated to a way larger degree than it is in Malaysia. Then there is the production increase from existing manufacturers and new players just in Malaysia that are entering the business.

The glove players will make more money than prior to the pandemic but how will the supply dynamics change and prices react will bear watching over the long run.

Posted by BenTan000 > 2020-12-13 11:01 | Report Abuse

Hi supersaiyan3, thank you for your comment.

Details about medical-related issues such as immune response and long-term immunity were not discussed in the article as there is insufficient conclusive data (i.e. anybody's guess would be as good).

The amount of gloves used during the vaccination process itself is rather immaterial to the overall demand for gloves. The standard practice is, of course, that gloves get changed after a patient gets checked up (or gets vaccinated in this case), which means a mid-term additional demand of 7+ billion pairs of gloves. This is a small figure compared to the total demand for gloves, so it is not the most important issue. More important may be the establishment of a timeline for the vaccination process and herd immunity achievement, both of which seem rather distant at longer than 1 year in the future for the larger part of the world.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-13 11:01 | Report Abuse

BECAREFUL OF GLOVES LOH....!!

DEMAND ALREADY PEAK MAH....!!

WHEN DEMAND NORMALISE LEH..!!

JUST TOPGLOVES ALONE ITS CAPACITY CAN PROVIDE FOR THE WHOLE WORLD REQUIREMENT LOH...!!

There is no doubt other glove companies will be making super-normal profit for some time but it will be unfathomable to expect that trajectory of profit increases to continue.

"As the world starts rolling out vaccines and as more people get inoculated against Covid-19, then the catalyst for the huge profits would increasingly get muted. The argument that the vaccine rollout will require the use of gloves is true but much of that will be one time use. The world has a population of 7.8 billion people and 16 billion pieces of gloves, or 32 billion if there needs to be two injections, to administer a vaccine to each and every person. Top Glove alone makes way more than that".

Then there is competition from new suppliers. Germany is starting to make rubber gloves seeing the demand and profits companies are making, which would indicate that the barriers of entry are not high for a business that can be automated to a way larger degree than it is in Malaysia. Then there is the production increase from existing manufacturers and new players just in Malaysia that are entering the business.

The glove players will make more money than prior to the pandemic but how will the supply dynamics change and prices react will bear watching over the long run.

Posted by BenTan000 > 2020-12-13 11:13 | Report Abuse

Hi stockraider, thank you for your comments.

Based on current data, it is unlikely that demand for gloves has peaked yet, or rather - that the supply-demand curve is at its highest equilibrium point, since demand alone is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. On the supply side, capacities are projected to continue to lag significantly behind demand until the end of 2021, before slowly starting to catch up.

Note that the process of building a functioning glove manufacturing facility is not a straightforward one. US and Japanese authorities estimate 3 year average period for a new facility to be ready for production. Additionally, there are constraints on raw material production, which might be even harder to resolve. Thus, no sharp increase in supply is achievable in the short- to mid-term.

I hope this helps.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-12-13 11:18 | Report Abuse

ROE NOT SUSTAINABLE MAH...!!

"There is no doubt other glove companies will be making super-normal profit for some time but it will be unfathomable to expect that trajectory of profit increases to continue.

As the world starts rolling out vaccines and as more people get inoculated against Covid-19, then the catalyst for the huge profits would increasingly get muted. The argument that the vaccine rollout will require the use of gloves is true but much of that will be one time use. The world has a population of 7.8 billion people and 16 billion pieces of gloves, or 32 billion if there needs to be two injections, to administer a vaccine to each and every person. Top Glove alone makes way more than that.

Then there is competition from new suppliers. Germany is starting to make rubber gloves seeing the demand and profits companies are making, which would indicate that the barriers of entry are not high for a business that can be automated to a way larger degree than it is in Malaysia. Then there is the production increase from existing manufacturers and new players just in Malaysia that are entering the business." !!!!!

TOO MUCH COMPETITION DUE TO OVERCAPACITIES & MANY NEW PLAYERS LOH...!!
"The world has a population of 7.8 billion people and 16 billion pieces of gloves, or 32 billion if there needs to be two injections, to administer a vaccine to each and every person. Top Glove alone makes way more than that."




Posted by Hustle > Dec 13, 2020 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

What comment is not important most important is ROE... ROE... ROE