13 people like this.

31 comment(s). Last comment by Ben Tan 2021-03-06 18:59

dawchok

459 posts

Posted by dawchok > 2021-03-03 18:56 | Report Abuse

Thks for the good info.

KINGCOBRA

550 posts

Posted by KINGCOBRA > 2021-03-03 21:13 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan thank you for those valuable articles otherwise I would be selling off at a loss after many days of sell-off buying price for more than seven ringgit! now at least I have clear pictures what's going on...thank alot

patrico8

334 posts

Posted by patrico8 > 2021-03-03 21:20 | Report Abuse

Ben, this article must have taken you hours of hard labor to tackle. Thanks for the write up. I believe the local funds you mentioned must be working in tandem with each other in order to coordinate such a deadly down spiral. I think we should expose these guys.

Russel

543 posts

Posted by Russel > 2021-03-03 21:33 | Report Abuse

This clarified the hands behind the major sell off of glove counters which i puzzled over the last two weeks. TQ

Erudite

248 posts

Posted by Erudite > 2021-03-03 22:02 | Report Abuse

Kudos Sir Ben!

KINGCOBRA

550 posts

Posted by KINGCOBRA > 2021-03-04 08:49 | Report Abuse

An articles not to be missed out for gloves investors esp fund managers!

Posted by JuzzyOracle > 2021-03-04 10:14 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan, thank you so much for your efforts. I am a huge fan of your analytical reports. Please continue for the rest of us to assist us in making informed decisions! Thanks again.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-04 10:56 | Report Abuse

dawchok, KINGCOBRA, patrico8, Russel, Erudite, JuzzyOracle, thank you for your comments.

I hope the information I share helps you in taking important decisions. However, please do not use it as a single source of truth. Always do your own research and analysis as people's perspectives might differ.

Posted by cstan6243 > 2021-03-04 11:07 | Report Abuse

good points and well said

Yong Ken

72 posts

Posted by Yong Ken > 2021-03-04 13:27 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the write up. Can conclude in that way: don't buy warrant or you have to sell it before the call warrant period. The banker will purposely sell off the share to drop the price during the moment. Correct me if i am wrong.

CJkenho

46 posts

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-03-04 13:33 | Report Abuse

Ben, in your conclusion u mentioned to wait & see the next weeks. Don't think that's enough to wait & see as there's still at least two in-the-money warrants (TG-c74, Harta-c40) expiring on the 22nd March. There's certainly no way the local IB is gonna let the price fly yet. Thereafter, the sun would shine brightly once again.

CJkenho

46 posts

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-03-04 13:44 | Report Abuse

As rightly pointed out by you also, EPF (msia investment godzilla) has been steadily & confidently adding to their glove holdings for the past 2 months, but with increased intensity last month.

In fact it can be said it's (tremendous confidence) coz daily the "acquired" numbers are substantially higher than the "disposed" ones. The golden unspoken hints that will reward those who have been paying attention.

signn

1,794 posts

Posted by signn > 2021-03-04 13:46 | Report Abuse

i think the catalysts are.
tg listing in hkex
supermax factory news in the us

signn

1,794 posts

Posted by signn > 2021-03-04 13:46 | Report Abuse

all the best ppl

pjseow

2,264 posts

Posted by pjseow > 2021-03-04 13:56 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan , thanks for your effort in collecting these informations . These informations are very useful . EPF are greedy when many are fearful. A good contrarian strategy in stock investment.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconT > 2021-03-04 14:06 | Report Abuse

EPF is not innocent

Disposed a bit first to make d price drop thn later buy back a lot at cheaper prices

EPF doing price manipulation



3,866,400

Acquired

Direct InterestName of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident Fund BoardAddress of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank 165, Jalan Ampang 50450, Kuala LumpurDescription of "Others" Type of Transaction225 Feb 2021

177,500

Disposed

Direct InterestName of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (TEMPLETON)Address of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank 165, Jalan Ampang 50450, Kuala LumpurDescription of "Others" Type of

Stockisnotfun

5,143 posts

Posted by Stockisnotfun > 2021-03-04 14:09 | Report Abuse

I know who is selling haha. Kyy is selling supermax haha.

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2021-03-04 14:25 | Report Abuse

this article is misleading.

katsul51

317 posts

Posted by katsul51 > 2021-03-04 14:35 | Report Abuse

Thank Ben for the article. My two cents thought on this is Local institutions /IB are using "PSS" ie "Permitted Short Selling" to do this which was not banned all along even during the First MCO. This is a so call tool given to IB's by our SC to promote market making activities allowing them to short sell up to 10% of the issued securities and these data of the volume of shares short sold are only known to SC because I am unable to find it anywhere. These may co-relate to the structured warrants issued by the IB's. Hence the IB's would have in total at least 14% of the issued capital to short sell provided there can find the lenders.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-03-04 16:02 | Report Abuse

Funds are also switching from tech stocks to high yield stocks as you can see banking stocks are uptrending for past 1 month. Are glove stocks also changed from pandemic play to high yield stocks after adjusting for the last six months? Super for example, net profits for coming 3 years = mkt cap currently or PE3. Gloves are cash cow. It could be have net cash of RM 10b in next 3 years...

LossAversion

1,678 posts

Posted by LossAversion > 2021-03-04 16:07 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for the useful insights.
and
@Reply to EatCoconutCanWin - where is your not-misleading write-up??.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-03-04 16:15 | Report Abuse

Top glove will have dividend yield of around 13-15% this year 2021, 2022 maybe 10% etc.

One thing for sure, after this reshuffling, the value has merged and big 4 gloves are very oversold position.

myinvestor

1,211 posts

Posted by myinvestor > 2021-03-04 17:45 | Report Abuse

FF are buying. The list are below.
https://fintel.io/so/us/spmxf

Posted by Passivereturn > 2021-03-04 18:12 | Report Abuse

Topglove Warrant to look out for:-

22Mar
KIBB HB=Put Exercise 8.33 Ratio 5.00
KIBB C74=Call Exercise 2.66 Ratio 2.33

The lowest exercise price of warrants from 22Mar onwards up to 31st May is 9.26.
So at this time frame i think there is really no point for the any IBs to short Topglove anymore.

My guess is, looking at all coincidence, Topglove will release her quarter result after 22nd Mar, so the price will fly with less obstacles.

wbwanabe

214 posts

Posted by wbwanabe > 2021-03-04 20:03 | Report Abuse

Tks Ben for another fantastic write up. I always await eagerly for your articles. Also a big thank you to @myinvestor for the link you gave. Confirmed what Ben has been writing about FF being net buyers whilst local retailers and funds are selling. These FF are usually long term holders, hence seeing how they have been mopping up a fantastic company at below rm5 is very telling.

oskchoon

3,186 posts

Posted by oskchoon > 2021-03-04 20:31 | Report Abuse

Passivereturn, Top Glove already announced the release of February QR report on 9th March 2021, get yourself ready for rock and roll..

tamp0i

912 posts

Posted by tamp0i > 2021-03-05 00:03 | Report Abuse

I have briefly compiled EPF and the the major shareholders of the top 4 from 1-Nov-2020 to 3-Mar-2021

To summarized:
1. Most shares disposed by EPF = TG (211.7m shares) and Kossan (85.1m shares) from Nov-20 to Jan-21
2. Least shares disposed by EPF = Hartalega (21.5m sold vs 220.4m bought) from Nov-20 to Jan-21
3. Selling has tremendously slowed down in Feb-21 for all 4 companies (10.7m sold vs 95.3m bought)!
4. Not enough information gathered from Supermax

It seemed to me, the catapult is coming...

Link to the spreadsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wdrfr0kjbDPqGIZawdVK3Uu4HFzM0ypb/view?usp=sharing

Ron90

3,736 posts

Posted by Ron90 > 2021-03-05 01:22 | Report Abuse

i think FM changing portfolio in anticipating that other sector will produce much better prospect than gloves pst-covid era, such as banks, oil, construction..which still very cheap..can fly 2 - 3x, unlike golves..only can fly 50% the most. if u have supermx at $6..can up to $9 only.

Mat Cendana

2,331 posts

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2021-03-05 22:48 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the effort in coming up with this post. Ben Tan - this name has credibility due to the quality of posts, plus in the way he carries himself when discussing and debating. Cool-headed, mature and pleasant.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-06 18:59 | Report Abuse

Thank you everyone for your kind comments.

@CJkenho, it would appear that certain CW issuing IBs are more "lenient" when it comes to letting the price take its own course, so I believe the upcoming ITM CWs won't be such a big issue.

@katsul51, there was a certain amount of short selling last year as well, yes, but it was incomparably smaller than what is happening since Jan 4. I believe the shorting limit is for all types of short selling together.

@tamp0i that's a great spreadsheet, thank you. Just a small note that sometimes when LWC buys shares, a few announcements are made, because of his related parties.

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