Posted by LimitUp > 2021-04-17 12:11 | Report Abuse

Jpm is going to get screwed by the market.

Posted by gohkimhock > 2021-04-17 12:30 | Report Abuse

am I the only one agree with JP Morgan? When it comes to money, we have to be realistic..

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-04-17 12:43 | Report Abuse

JPM is in for a good roasting and they bloody well deserve it. Thanks Ben for the excellent write up.

Posted by batman666 > 2021-04-17 12:44 | Report Abuse

Gohhimhock, please do elaborate what you agree with JPM. Thank you very much.

Posted by alwinchg > 2021-04-17 12:47 | Report Abuse

TG will rise again coz the value of the company is still undervalued.

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2021-04-17 12:56 | Report Abuse

Ben, your report is timely. Tq for such a good report.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-04-17 13:11 | Report Abuse

Superb one .......by Ben

Posted by DickyMe > 2021-04-17 14:33 | Report Abuse

Well the fable tells about a mischievous boy having fun with his lies and finally it came true but no one believed him.

However, here we do see the truth of dwindling glove price unfolding on the board.

It will remain a truth.

DISPOSABLE glove supporters believe the story of a cat thinking it is the lion
or a chicken pretending to be an eagle.

Posted by Dante5566 > 2021-04-17 14:44 | Report Abuse

A lot of retailers have been victims of JPM rss scare tactics in recent months. Even big gun like Tropicana also succumbed to it.

It's time we stay united by not selling at loss because your loss is JPM's profit.

Posted by George Leong > 2021-04-17 15:58 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for the sharing :)

Posted by signn > 2021-04-17 16:04 | Report Abuse

JPM habis lo. lose money!!!! hehe

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-04-17 16:09 | Report Abuse

Those chased high, kena lagi loh

Posted by TheOwlsandWolves > 2021-04-17 17:53 | Report Abuse

Enter the China Fund to fight JPM, kaput kasi sama itu pendek sellers...hahaha

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-04-17 19:13 | Report Abuse

A timely piece of good writing, Ben.
With regards the article of Tropicana disposing TG shares, I was made to understand that the realized losses from the disposal was hugely offset by the dividend payouts and they still hold a considerable amount. Can someone confirm that?

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-04-17 19:45 | Report Abuse

LimitUp, gohkimhock, Goldberg, batman666, alwinchg, Bizfuneng, Targeted, Dante5566, George Leong, signn, TheOwlsandWolves, Anthem2, thank you for your comments.

Anthem2, according to the announcement, Tropicana still hold 12,470,000 shares of Top Glove. They assume RM2.6 million loss on the disposal of 1,850,000 shares, so RM1.40 per share. Since they've bought the shares in December, they were entitled to two dividend payments - RM0.165 + RM0.252. So their loss is about RM0.99 per share. They don't provide much of a justification on this action, but they say they will be using the proceeds for working capital. Here is the announcement: https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3148964

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-04-17 20:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2021-04-17 22:21 | Report Abuse

The down reconfirmation look going to right.Because monthly still hooking down.Tht the danger point.Expect glove stock will tank back in 5-10 trading days starting 19/10/2021.

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-04-17 22:44 | Report Abuse

Tropicana was probably in need of immediate funds and this to them was the best way forward without incurring further losses. If it was a loss of confidence in TG , it definitely would have been more than just the 13% of their total holdings.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-04-17 22:49 | Report Abuse

Those directors responsible for the losses should be punished mah...!!

For a start must cut their directors fees loh!

Posted by Anthem2 > Apr 17, 2021 10:44 PM | Report Abuse

Tropicana was probably in need of immediate funds and this to them was the best way forward without incurring further losses. If it was a loss of confidence in TG , it definitely would have been more than just the 13% of their total holdings.

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-04-17 23:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by will75 > 2021-04-18 00:57 | Report Abuse

Go for the kill on Monday guys!

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2021-04-18 06:39 | Report Abuse

JPM’s research is low quality with lot of flows. They don’t even know bother to adjust the target price for TG following the additional special dividend & HK secondary listing announcements.

By end year 2022, shareholders of TP might have collected closed to RM1.50 to RM2 per share dividend. Whether this dividend paid is added back in JPM TP? Seems like they don’t bother to answer neither.

Posted by henry888 > 2021-04-18 08:46 | Report Abuse

Nothing is coincidence in this world of stock market. Their report is with intent. Why should Bursa open RSS since most are played by foreigners and have consistently selling Malaysian equities. "opinions only".

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-04-18 11:25 | Report Abuse

A YEAR has elapsed and the world is currently facing a resurgence of covid 19, in fact the numbers are registering new highs each day- even with the rollout of vaccines.

What does this say ?

1- Covid 19 will be around for a very long time.

2- Vaccines are not a cure - it does help by reducing the mortality rate. Thank God for this.

3- More deadly and virulent strains from mutations are on the rise and may render existing vaccines ineffective. To survive the virus mutates in to strains that may escape the defence brought about by vaccines.

4- Too much greed in this world especially the rich nations depriving the poor nations affordable vaccines- this will render herd immunity for the world impossible.

5- Premature opening up of economies by most countries and the believe that rollout of vaccines will just ward off the virus. This false sense of security is disturbing.

6- Refusal to adhere to SOPs- particularly in western countries.

JP Morgan and their cohorts just refuse to accept the above and is so determined to destroy Malaysia most valuable sector ie GLOVES. .

It is very sad that they have found willing lenders of shares ie EPF the main betrayer to lend their shares to JPM to forcibly bring down the value of the Big 4. EPF you have blood on your hands and should be brought to justice.

Demand for PPEs especially Gloves will be elevated for a long time. The world is currently facing an acute shortage and is going to persist for a long time- even with new and expanded capacities

As Malaysians, we should all be united and act against these Foreign Manipulators-JPM.

Posted by bpsiah > 2021-04-18 22:21 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for the good writeup.

Posted by bpsiah > 2021-04-18 22:24 | Report Abuse

Did Tropicana really lost money by disposing some of their shareholdings? It depends on how one looks at the situation. As far as I know Tropicana bought their shares on different occasions and with different prices. Some higher and some lower. I read somewhere the amount sold were in fact higher than the lowest price they paid for a portion of the shareholding. Based on average, yes, they sold at a lost as far as we can see at this point. However, this may not be the final answer because as we all know Tropicana is still holding a bigger amount of the share. If TG price is to increase subsequently much more than their purchased price and if they manage to sell the balance at the much higher price then it is not a lost as we see now. The show isn't finish until the end. My 2 sen opinion.

Posted by super168 > 2021-04-19 08:33 | Report Abuse

Superb report. India and the world experience 3rd or 4th wave. Msia gloves co still cannot meet demands. Vaccine too not totally effective. Let's see 3rd, 4th, 5th wave in gloves shares.

Posted by skyz > 2021-04-19 08:37 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan, I enjoy reading your articles. From the content, it is clear you have given much time and effort in the research and you back them up with figures and data. Great analysis, you deserve much recognition compared to many unscrupulous "analyst" from IBs. Keep it up~

Posted by newbie8080 > 2021-04-19 11:49 | Report Abuse

Demand for nitrile gloves drop 67% from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021.
Nitrile=510 days to 200 days
Note: Last meeting in April 2021 for ESG issue, updates from Tan Sri is 170days


Refer to Slide #13 (dec 2020)
https://www.topglove.com/App_ClientFile/7ff8cb3f-fbf6-42e7-81da-6db6a0ab2ef4/Assets/corporate_calendar/TG%20IR%20slide_091220_CLSA.pdf


Refer to Slide #9 (Feb2021)
https://www.topglove.com/App_ClientFile/7ff8cb3f-fbf6-42e7-81da-6db6a0ab2ef4/Assets/corporate_calendar/TG%20IR%20slide_240221_Daiwa.pdf

Now the page for latest slide in April had remove this statistic.

Up to each of you to define what it means.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-04-19 13:41 | Report Abuse

Michael Kwok, Anthem2, stockraider, will75, Likey_Greek, henry888, Goldberg, bpsiah, super168, skyz, newbie80808, thank you for your comments.

newbie80808, you seem to be missing a lot of important points, most of which are covered in the same slides you are quoting:

1) The sequence of events is that from the normal lead time of 30-40 days, the lead time increased to 510 days for nitrile gloves and 340 days for latex gloves. Only after that it "decreased" to 200 days for nitrile gloves and 295 days for latex gloves. In other words, the "shortened" lead time is still 5-10 times longer than the lead time in normal times.

2) The reason for the decrease in lead time, as explained in the slides, is due to new production capacity coming on line (+20%), and conversion of latex glove production lines to nitrile glove production lines (hence the decrease in lead time for latex gloves is much smaller).

3) Another factor is that between the two presentations you are quoting, there is a time period of over 100 days. It is normal and expected that lead time will revert to close to normal once the emergency demand due to the harshest phase of the pandemic is satisfied. As Top Glove's production lines for nitrile and latex gloves are interchangeable, let's take the simple average for lead time: in December 2020 = 425 days, and in February 2021 = 250 days. This means that the actual decrease in delivery time for the period is 75 days, which is 17.6% decrease, explainable with the 20% increase in production capacity.

Posted by paperplane > 2021-04-19 14:22 | Report Abuse

i have been waiting 3.50 for half years already. TIPU lah this rpt.

Posted by Yong Ken > 2021-04-19 16:18 | Report Abuse

i ever read a comment in investing.com. He commented don't trust JPM, they never meet the forecasted. I realized many others also agreed with the statement. I think they are not provide a good market analysis but try to manipulate the market.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2021-04-19 18:19 | Report Abuse

@Ben Tan

Is it a typo in your last sentence?


............actual decrease in delivery time for the period is 75 days, which is 17.6% decrease, explainable with the 20% increase in production capacity.

Should it be:

.........actual decrease in delivery time for the period is 175 days, which is 41% decrease..........

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-04-19 19:57 | Report Abuse

paperplane, Yong Ken, thank you for your comments.

newbie8080, it's not a typo. As I explained, between the dates of the two presentations you are quoting there are 100 days, so you can discount that period as -100 days of excess emergency demand due to the pandemic.

Posted by pharker > 2021-04-19 23:45 | Report Abuse

JP Morgan is a double headed snake. be careful.

On one hand giving negative on gloves, on the other hand, foreign funds are the largest buyer of glove stocks for the past 2 months.

very simple, FF won't come in when fully valued or priced in, then where is the meat? They have to come in when its way undervalued, and JPMoragn report is doing that favour for them .

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2021-04-20 11:29 | Report Abuse

Kossan cheapest big 4 gloves=not good?

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2021-04-20 11:30 | Report Abuse

Kossan cheapest why EPF accumulate?

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-04-20 13:02 | Report Abuse

pharker, newbie5354_, thank you for your comments.

newbie5354_, EPF has been accumulating Top Glove, Harta, and Kossan for a while now. They are not required to release announcement if they buy Supermax as they are not a substantial shareholder. You can see: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-03-03-story-h1542003080-Top_Glove_Hartalega_Kossan_Supermax_Who_Is_Buying_and_Who_Is_Selling_Gl.jsp