CPO prices expected to be lower in 2022, say market analysts (The Star - Saturday, 16 Oct 2021)
UOB Kay Hian Research maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector
The research unit is keeping its CPO price forecast for 2021 and 2022 at RM3,300 and RM2,800 per tonne respectively
CPO prices may sustain at the current levels due to the continued disappointing palm oil production as yield recovery from the previous drought is taking longer than expected
It also notes that risks include rising fertiliser costs due to supply constraints. As fertiliser cost (30% of ex-mill cost) is one of the biggest components besides labour cost, the surge in fertiliser prices could lead to a cost increase of at least 15% to 20%
RHB Research also maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector
It advises investors to ride the wave and look for opportunities to sell into strength, with CPO prices currently at a peak, and some strength being seen in share prices.
“The main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalitie. Share prices have, for the first time this year, started moving in tandem with CPO prices. We believe now is the time to ride the wave, and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits, adding that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns will still impact sector valuations”
What we can observe market behaviour now is most of the fund managers start to revise outlook for CPO in the upcoming season, most of experts had expected the CPO prise shall be normalised in tandem.
Fund managers strongly believe that plantation companies shall be adjusted lower heading Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), that’s why most of the research houses given underweight outlook.
This is the reason why plantation sector not so fancy like year 2020 glove sector, fund managers strongly believe that once the CPO price normalise so ASP also simultaneously adjusted lower.
One of the good example to review is glove sector, what happen for the year 2020 compare with year 2021. Once most of the fund managers revise neutral or underweight outlook, we all can see the respective sector (or respective stocks) will start decelerating.
Despite glove sector still handsomely profitable for the next few years but most of the share traders more bias to ASP will be adjusted accordingly. This scenario is same with plantation sector as well.
If we want to enjoy fancy profit from the share price margin at this moment, we need to thoroughly consider is it the right time to challenge current circumstances since market had given cognitive lesson for the past of glove sector.
If we want to enjoy dividend yield (only selective planters), it’s fine to accumulate rather than putting your funds at the banks but now not aware current share price is it wisely to enter since plantation sector bias to neutral or underweight.
Other members also buying valuable stocks but not behave like this iddiot spammer
We all feel ridiculous nonstop posting nonstop promoting
As I said earlier, if you so confidence to wait and if you so confidence what you invest why everyday need to promote, why everyday put up so many blog, why everyday go different stocks forum keep on promoting your palm oil stocks?
This is very obvious you want to cash out your share bought and treat other members as waterfish.
In the real world, no free lunch to people unless you want to take advantage from others
I don't know why 3iii administrator didn't take any action to suspend this iddiot account to avoid further keep on spamming everyday and every way
I pegging administrator need to take proper action against this spammer
Weather it be winter season or whatever season as long as 1.4 BILLION Chinese citizens visit Supermarket to buy food is very good for palm oil because 50% of Supermarket products like Cooking oil, biscuit, instant noodles, bread all got palm oil
you must have been offended by my kind warnings on pump and dump hot air balloon stocks like Tocean, hongseng, bsl corp, tafi, Malaysia genomics, solution and other stocks of zero or little real earnings
You better sell and run before you lose 90% of your capital like in green packet which crashed from Rm1.60 to 10 sen due to digital banking hype and Kimble hype
as for Calvin and friends who bought into the great safety of oil palm stocks we are in safe defensive stocks
Perhaps too much working from home is causing your contacts to have temporary memory loss.
Both Mustakim Bin Mat Nun and Amirul Afif Bin Abd Aziz are indirect shareholders of One Hydro Power Sdn Bhd, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of OHP Ventures Sdn Bhd. In fact Mustakim Bin Mat Nun Amirul Afif Bin Abd Aziz, and Zainal Azwadi Zainal Abidin are also directors of OHP Group.
I will now answer those questions that have been posed.
When KPowernet accepted the award by Zhenghong for the Nam Taep 1,2,3 Hydropower Co Ltd ("NT") project valued at USD40.7M in June 2020, the same project that was awarded by NT to Serba, valued at USD66.2M, in July 2018 ought to have been terminated.
You just cannot sell the Brooklyn Bridge twice. Furthermore, Mustakim, Amirul and Zainal ought to know since all three of them are directors of the OHP Group and OHP Group has 35.7% stake in NT.
The impacts for Serba are now:
--->>> Serba will need to write-off RM20.99M from its receivables for the hydro power projects in Laos (FYE 2019: RM12.326M, 15months ended 31-03-2021: RM8.664M)
--->>> Serba will need to write-off RM3.36M (USD800,000) for it's 34.3% stake in NT because Zhenghong is now allegedly the owner for the hydro power plants (the 49% stake in OHP Ventures was purchased form OHPVSB in Oct 2018. OHP Ventures has 70% share in NT)
With the NT and Serba confusion out of the way, we will now try to understand the awards by Zhenghong Building Road and Bridge Construction Co Ltd.
KPowernet announced 2 awards by Zhenghong: - USD40.7M in June 2020 (3x5 megawatt Nam Taep 1 and 3x5MW Nam Taep 2 hydropower project) - USD15.88M in Feb 2020 (8 megawatt Nam Samoy hydropower project)
Zhenghong Building Road and Bridge Construction Co Ltd is a company registered by Zheng FuJun in Laos. Zheng Fujun has also registered 3 other companies in Laos - Lao Fanya Marble-Granite Rock Co. Ltd, Lao Fanya Agriculture Investments Co. Ltd and Lao-China Yuan Sheng Real Estate Development Co. Ltd.
None of those companies registered by Zheng FuJun has a power purchasing agreement with Electricite du Laos. Without a PPA in place, it will be impossible to obtain fundings.
Even with a signed PPA, funding will be challenging because of a situation of over-capacity of hydropower plants and debt levels that have resulted in the downgrading of the country's rating to CCC.
Of the 90 hydropower plants that have been planned, 56 plants are in operation with a total capacity of 8,768 Megawatts. Thailand and Yunnan Province in China have had an electricity surplus in recent years and have reduced their demand from Laos.
I do have a couple of additional questions:
--->>> Question: How much of the USD40.7M (3x5 megawatt Nam Taep 1 and 3x5MW Nam Taep 2 hydropower project) contract has been recognized as receivables by KPower?
--->>> Question: How much of the USD15.88M (8 megawatt Nam Samoy hydropower project) contract has been recognized as receivables by KPower?
Your question is noted I still trying to contact person in charge now working from home
Once got will update you
In any case all the negatives have been priced in 29/07/2021 1:07 PM
Have you obtained answers for the following questions?
In July 2018, Serba got awarded a USD66.2M project by "NT" for the 3x5MW Nam Taep 1 and 3x5MW Nam Taep 2 hydropower energy facility
In June 2020, KPower announced the award by Zhenghong Building Road & Bridge Construction Co Ltd for the 3x5 megawatt (MW) Nam Taep 1 and 3x5MW Nam Taep 2 hydropower energy generating facilities
--->>> Question: How can Zhenghong award the same project to KPowernet for US$40.7mil in June 2020, when NT already awarded the project to Serba for USD66.2M in July 2018? --->>> Question: Has NT terminated the contract that was previously signed with Serba? Nam Samoy Hydropower Co. Ltd. was already listed at the developer of the Nam Samoy project that was intended to qualify as a CDM project in a 2014. --->>> Question: How can Zhenghong award the same project to KPower in Feb 2020? --->>> Question: Is there any evidence to show that Zhenghong has signed PPAs with Électricité du Laos for both projects? --->>> Question: Since Fitch has downgraded Laos country rating to CCC, how are the projects going to be funded?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-10 22:24 | Report Abuse
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