Posted by yong1985cm > 2022-05-13 11:27 | Report Abuse

YTL power seraya - in the past 5 FY only earning about RM100m-200m of PBT. on what ground u think it can make EBITDA of SGD250-450 million? the oversupply issue in singapore could not be resolved easily and even it is, unlikely that Power Seraya can go back to those GLORY days.

5G - yes . with the SWN model, now the telco player will not require to incur for the huge capex, and improve the competitiveness among them to retail to end consumer and will certainly benefit small player like YTL. Having said that, the timing of the beauty of so called 5G will only contribute to the bottom line is questionable? yet at the level of >RM100 mil profit. think of the major telco players now, how much market share have they owned currently, and how solid these markets share are since it was built many yrs ago, easily 20 or even more? can YTL jz take the market share like that and get few hundred million profit, common sense tell it will not as easy as what u claimed and will take plenty years. in my view, 5g retail will only contribute <RM100mil/annum PBT for the 1st 3 yrs from now.

data centre power by solar - new biz venture that follow the current solar theme, but how much can it contribute to bottom line remain unknown. or do u know any company is ady doing this in malaysia/regional?

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-05-13 11:45 | Report Abuse

Average share price of YTL from 2003-2022 (19 years)= RM1.00. Talk so much no use. 19 years of price history enough to cement YTL at max RM1.00

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-05-13 14:13 | Report Abuse

yong1985cm, you need to understand that Singapore electricity market is a competitive merchant market, that means the pricing and margin is subject to supply and demand. The tight market in 2007-2010 already proved that gross margin to gencos could be good at SGD30-50/MWh (at times it shot up to SGD60-80/MWh) and PowerSeraya did make EBITDA of SGD300-350 million every year then.
THe oversupply situation is becoming less with weak players being wiped out (like Hyflux) and existing gencos not adding any new capacity in past few years.
Furthermore, the gas oversupply issues will come to and end by early next year and gencos will not be forced to dump prices in order to burn off the gas.
If the last tight supply cycle already caused electricity gross margin to record SGD50/MWh and above, what makes you think that the next tight cycle will not push it to SGD50/MWh again?
Haven't you seen a tight cycle could push average selling prices of gloves to above USD100 per 1000pcs from normal USD25-30? Haven't you seen that semiconductor players are making double or triple profits during this current tight supply cycle?

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-05-13 14:22 | Report Abuse

For the 5G business, as it is not under a single DNS model, every telcos will have equal assess to the 5G network and hence it is a level playing field. Yes Celcom and Maxis are long big players but what makes them special that other players like DIGI or U Mobile or YTL Yes not able to compete with them? It is a proven fact that with the right approach, a smaller player like DIGI has gained market grounds from Celcom and Maxis and made billions of profit.
Let me ask you, if Celcom or Maxis is offering a 5G package for RM55 a month, but DIGI or YTL Yes comes to offer similar package at RM48-50 a month, who would you choose?
What I am projecting is for YTL Yes to get a market share of 15% in the 5G market, while Celcom and Maxis might enjoy dominant 25%-30% each. I was using an estimated total 5G users of 10 million in Malaysia, so I projected that YTL Yes would get 1.5 million of 5G users at say RM50 per month, hence generating revenue of RM900 million a year. With telco EBITDA margin at typical 50% level, I was saying that YTL Yes could generate EBITDA of RM450 million a year.
You may challenge some of my assumptions but that is my basis.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-05-13 14:24 | Report Abuse

For data centre businesss, nobody knows how much it will contribute to YTL profits as you said. What I have done was to put up a sensible estimate by comparing the electricity prices paid by date centre operators in Singapore vs what YTL Power will offer in Kulai by using solar power. You are free to check through my calculations and comment.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-05-19 21:03 | Report Abuse

CIMB analyst in his report dated 18 May said that the new digital banks will aim to capture shares in the untapped value pool (revenue) of RM10 billion, out of the sector's RM91 billion. A mid sized bank like Ambank has a net profit margin of about 30%, indicating that each digital bank may potentially get a revenue of RM2 billion and 30% x RM2bn = RM600 million of net profit per year. That is slightly higher than my earlier projection of RM450m profit a year.

Posted by DoggieInvestor > 2022-07-26 23:32 | Report Abuse

heard the same old pitch in the last 11 years YTL Corp is a strong BUY.
It owned the LTE box that gives you ultra-fast mobile internet while US was already on 4G.
Ironically, CIMB analyst called YTL a buy because of digital bank. Does he/she know that CIMB is the first to be granted the license from the govt???

Posted by DoggieInvestor > 2022-07-26 23:34 | Report Abuse

For one, you think data center lessors like Google and Microsoft are dumb people ah ???? Malaysia electricity tariff is significantly lower than Singapore. Data centre operators are just property developers + owners. How would Google or Microsoft or Amazon pay them huge amount of money to make them rich? all these internet giants have closed to US$100bn of cash on hands, why don't they build themselves??
IT IS ALL FINANCIAL ENGINEERING MY FRIENDS !

Posted by DoggieInvestor > 2022-07-26 23:39 | Report Abuse

who would want to use a 5G services with limited and poor coverage???
You pay me RM 1 per month, i give you my 5G services with a radius of 25 meters around my house you want ???

Posted by DoggieInvestor > 2022-07-26 23:40 | Report Abuse

everyone forgot about YTL's Sarawak contracts with those remote schools.........for their "proprietary" and ATAS LTE services.....

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-07-27 11:26 | Report Abuse

DoggieInvestor, true that Google and Microsoft or Amazon are cash rich, but it does not mean that they need to build and own everything such as data centre to operate their business. It is just like Starbucks does not need to own all the land and properties in order to operate a coffee joint.
It is not hard to check how many data centres in Singapore are actually built and owned by a third party rather than these tech giants who use the data centres.

As I mentioned before in my previous article on YTL Power, there are huge advantages of setting up data centre in Malaysia/Johor as the land cost and electricity costs are much cheaper than that in Singapore. Furthermore, what YTLPower is building is green data centres to be powered by solar power which is lacking in Singapore.
The fact of the matter is that YTLPower has already managed to secure clients for its first green data centre in Kulai. Wake up my friend!

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-07-27 11:28 | Report Abuse

Malaysia stock cannot be like US stock 1 la.. no capital here.

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-07-27 11:30 | Report Abuse

It looks like DoggieInvestor is another retail investor who has got stuck in YTL or YTLPower shares for too long, and has either cut loss or suffered huge paper loss.

Whatever the case it is, do not let emotion run over your head. Stock markets always look forward, the past is past. Let it go and learn the lesson.

Just look at BJFood, a Vincent Tan company, that has taken off to great heights. This is despite the fact that Vincent Tan's group of companies have suffered long period of bad impression due to the not-so-good related party transactions involving some of his companies. But investors have short memory and always look forward. Cheer up!

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-07-27 11:34 | Report Abuse

nicholas99, if you have more money, it is always good to invest some in the US stock markets that have plenty of world class companies that enjoy higher valuation. But valuation is an issue, it is not easy to find under-valued stocks in the US that has potentials to go up multiple times, the market there is so much more efficient than Bursa as there are thousands of analysts and fund managers screening through stocks. BTW, pls share if you find any good undervalued stock in the US or here in Bursa

Posted by dragon328 > 2022-07-27 11:36 | Report Abuse

BTW, YTLPower share price has just broken up 0.70 with MACD showing a golden cross. I hope it has bottomed up and is on its way to retest previous high of 0.80-0.83