Posted by ValueInv888 > 2023-11-24 17:22 | Report Abuse

PBA = hidden gem!

Posted by ValueInv888 > 2023-11-24 18:02 | Report Abuse

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10aTv66LpAPTC8BtezQ8kgBai_YqkYaV8/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=115125308278906410638&rtpof=true&sd=true

Posted by UnicornP > 2023-11-24 18:05 | Report Abuse

On Nov 7 night still hidden, now no more hidden liao...

Posted by AlphaInvestor > 2023-11-24 20:06 | Report Abuse

PBA Fair Value based on 3 scenarios:
BEAR: Fair Value (FV) = RM1.75
Neutral: FV = RM2.80
BULL: FV = RM3.50

FY23 = RM92m or EPS = 27.8 sen
FY24 = RM115m or EPS = 34.7 sen
FY25 = RM118m or EPS = 35.6 sen

Now already November 2023, so FY24 EPS is more relevant.

FY24 EPS = 34.7 sen

Scenarios:

1. Bearish Scenario (Recession coming, electronics company all leaving Penang)
I will use 5x PE which is usually used for distressed economy or company.
5 times 34.7 sen = 173.5 sen (RM1.75 for easy reference)

2. Base Case Scenario (Malaysia GDP still grow 3%-5%, no recession, electronics/industries company still expand and use more water every year)
I will use 8x PE which is usually used for normal time, no recession.
8 times 34.7 sen = 277.6 sen (RM2.80 for easy reference)

3. Bullish Case Scenario (Malaysia GDP still grow 5%-6%, US achieved soft landing, Penang electronics/industries company expand a lot and use much more water every year)
I will use 10x PE which is usually used for good time. It is not excessive when market is bullish.
10 times 34.7 sen = 347 sen (RM3.50 for easy reference)

I am using his model and divide the earnings forecast with number of shares to get EPS.

Source:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10aTv66LpAPTC8BtezQ8kgBai_YqkYaV8/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=115125308278906410638&rtpof=true&sd=true