First quarter results only involved 15 days in March under MCO, second quarter results will be very good as it involves almost the full quarter under MCO.
Oracle of Omni Gdex reached support, buy before rebound especially the son. CR has strong support at 9c 28/05/2020 3:15 PM
D4rkloder95 Goreng kaki sudah lari ma 28/05/2020 3:16 PM X Oracle of Omni MIDF and alot funds are defending 0.365 28/05/2020 3:16 PM X Oracle of Omni Think about all these selling, why 0.365 so strong support, someone is collecting guys. 28/05/2020 3:18 PM
BigPro Collecting with high risk and will trap here ... 5.6B share too heavy to rebound 28/05/2020 3:24 PM X Oracle of Omni Bro, look at the intraday chart, it has dropped so much with no rebound yet. The son CR Is so attractive at 9c. Plus look at the mother, strong support at 0.365 0.36. 28/05/2020 3:25 PM X Oracle of Omni Look, someone is eating 0.37 and the buyer at 0.365 keep refilling 28/05/2020 3:27 PM
I already told u guys. Funds will wait for it to drop then collect, just like yesterday, easy 0.365 collected so much. I work in investment bank so i know that.
On 28 January 2020, shares in Pos Malaysia Bhd rose as much as 10% in early trade this morning after the national courier said it will raise postage rates for registered mail, commercial mail and small parcels below 2kg, effective Feb 1.
At 9.05am, Pos Malaysia rose 11 sen to RM1.55, valuing it at RM1.21 billion. The stock had earlier risen to a high of RM1.60.
From 1.55, dropped till 1.10 with a loss of RM 171m? 1.55-1.1 Market Cap loss = 352m VS inclusive of loss of RM 171m. Where does the difference of RM 181 go?
At RM 1.55, when the news was announced in January, the increase in price was priced in at RM 1.55, giving POS a market cap of RM 1.21b, but increase in courier demand wasnt priced in yet. With loss of RM 171, shouldnt the market cap be 1.039 b or RM 1.32?
Moreover, at RM 1.32 assumes nothing changed since MCO. But what about the increase in Courier volume by 200%? Savings in Interest of RM 10.8m/year? Savings in Fuel of RM 14m/year?
Gdex up 45% since MCO, would it be too demanding for POS to go up to pre-mco level of RM 1.32 (Inclusive of loss of RM 171m for Dec QR)? We're not greedy, we havent factored in Courier 200% increase, Fuel 14m/year cost decrease, Interest 10.8m/year cost decrease.
For courier segment last year 9 months ended Dec 2019 Profit was RM 14,657 million. This was including a malware attack and impairment write down..
If we take 6 months ended September 2019, profit was RM 47.8m for 2 quarters translating into RM 23.9/QR from Courier segment. IF MCO sales up 200% = RM 47.8m profit / quarter, or 23.9 x 4 = RM 95.6 additional profit/year..
So assuming market has priced in rate increase from postal at RM 1.039b, you now need to add in RM 95.6m Profit + 10.8m + 14m profit = RM 120m/year profit
Now let’s try to do the pricing of POS. On 28th May POS had annual profit of 124m and share price of RM 3.62, giving it market cap of 2.8 billion or PE of 22…
If you’re adding 120m profit with P/E of 10 at RM 1.2b market cap to pre-mco fair price of RM 1.039b (after loss of RM 171m), the numbers will look like 1.2b + 1.039 b = RM 2.239b market cap, translating into RM 2.79 Fair Value.
Interesting Note: POS Courier segment is 2.27 times bigger than Gdex (88m vs 200m per QR).
This QR we are seeing Postal 66% effect rate hikes priced in from 1st Feb to 31st March. It has not factored in the 200% volume +, Fuel Savings, Interest Savings of RM 120m/year. Next QR would be interesting.
xterrosinx ..sorry..not interested in loss making company..too many "if" in your article..in share market the word "if" in useless..it is like "if i bought supermax when the price RM 1.45 maybe now i am a millionaire"..hahahah
We knew that all courier company benefit from MCO, among Nationwide, Gdex and POS. Gdex giving peace of mind to the shareholder as QR report already out. The rest still battling on the result and PN17 status
GDEX have a beautiful healthy lean balance sheet, with a net cash position of more than RM100mil......as well as new norm economies are shifting towards digitalisation and e-commerce. So many good news tat can caused Monday hit Limit UP.
overvalued? hmm so many naysayer here....the majority shareholders around over 70% did not sell a single share in years so must really be idiots....so when the courier war in Malaysia/SEA is done and dusted, i bet GDEX will be one of those few left standing....
2018..mean that Gdex is taking superb move by acquiring prospect Indonesian company in neutral price. If they acquiring yesterday of course the price is already multiply with Covid sentiment...haiyaaaa...
Remember that courier service is hot not only in Malaysia, and Indonesia got nearly 10 times population than Malaysia.
GDex is trading above its 20-day MA and support is at 0.375. It's RSI has corrected itself at 70% and price is moving higher than its Ichimoku cloud which indicates continuation of the trend. I think it will test the 0.445 resistance level and given the TP just given by MIDF at 0.48, there is a good chance of it reaching this target this week or next. The news of its loss last quarter has been absorbed by the market and late today, I think it is recovering lost grounds. Keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow. Hopefully we will see some expected fireworks.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
greedy44444
2,494 posts
Posted by greedy44444 > 2020-05-28 23:22 | Report Abuse
Today just profit taking...tomorrow resume uptrend