Don't expect any miracle here as the old fox have dumped out all his shares from 4.70 to 4.90 few weeks ago !!! If you believe in karma, you will be able see how an fox end his life....
Dead in the water..going sideways... poor sentiment and money now with Banking stocks. All banks upticked to pre-covid 2019 level...in 10 days. WTF. Have to hold on till the hype is clear.
Another down day... Going to be sideway for this month. Better stop looking at it and come back another month when Funds monies move in. Now, monies are in recovery stocks.
Even with double good news on vaccine from Moderna & Pfizer, the US market Dow Jones still flattish and ended up Red. its really shows that vaccine impact is still far away and market over there is not really optimistic on post vaccine news. i expect that US market will shoot up like crazy, but no, the reality are businesses are still closed, oil and gas demand destruction are still around, airlines not flying, tourism is still under border shutdown, and the virus is rampaging.
so, why would market over here expect that it is already post vaccine play, when we are definitely not getting these vaccine from these drug company much2 sooner than US and Europe ...? We are perhaps 10th, 20th, 30th in line.
The negative impact of pandemic on sectors other than gloves are still in play. The only sector that still giving good investment return is Glove Business with low risk. Just sharing with my thought with the investment community.
According to IB analysis, glove ASP will drop to USD30-35 after pandemic for Yr 2022-2023 How will it affect COMFORT?
Lets re-call some useful info provided by management during AGM ASP Q4FY20 USD22 ASP Q1FY21 USD25-27 ASP Q2FY21 USD30-35
Performance during this period ASP Q4FY20 USD22 vs Revenue 139mil PAT 10mil ASP Q1FY21 USD25-27 vs Revenue 153mil PAT 16mil ASP Q2FY21 USD30-35 vs Revenue 198mil PAT 43mil
If ASP can stand @ USD30-35 for Yr2022-2023 (Comfort FY2023-2024) (Assume production capacity unchanged) Comfort PAT per annum 43mil x 4 = 172mil = EPS 0.30 Average PE past 5 year PE16-18 Fair price = RM4.80 - RM5.40
FY2021-2022 will be a fantastic year, Comfort will bag a lot of cash just like others glove players. Will this extra Cash use to expand their business? If the answer is YES! Extra production capacity or business diversification, can push their PAT per annum >200mil in the future.
Last, Pls do not forget that coming few quarter, Comfort PAT can easily achieve 100mil per QR
ASP is really cheap for developed countries because of MY ĺow currency value so that is why MY is in a very competitive position in gloves. Even if SG can make gloves , they cannot go into it because the cost price will be uncompetitive. In developing countries , maybe need to import from Bangladesh. Topglove can open one there.
Have to wait for the Revenge Rebound on Gloves now... to have any sign of hope on getting to TP. This sentiment will last at least another 2 weeks. IB funds are completely out pumping recovery stocks now.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Wukong
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Posted by Wukong > 2020-11-18 09:43 | Report Abuse
今天反弹,明天星期五下跌