about 9% of the total asset will expire in less than 2 years (Segi College Subang, South City Plaza, Contraves, Toshiba), and about 1/3 (the above + Holiday Villa, Segi KD, Wsima Comcorp, RHF Stone) will expire in less than 9 years. Good to continue to collect?
from the last Q results, it seems to me ARREIT has a solid fundamentals, undervalued even when consider all known "troubles" and risk factors, expecting DPS21 to be in the range 5-5.5sen, very good div yield, potential price upside too
Right now, market seems worried about upcoming Sep report, someone already knew the results and dumping. Quite a few concerns with this counter: 1. Further decline in revenues (risky)? 2. Rising interest rates causing higher interest payment? 3. As it is, YTD Jun report showed Operating Cashflows not quite meet Dividends and Interest payments. So, if YTD Sep report shows lower revenues, then, more likely next year's Dividends may be lower than 2022. 4. Asset revaluation risks? (good buffer on paper, but unknown).
It's main property is Vista Tower office building, recently revalued to RM523m, worth 37% of its REIT assets. The gross rental income (before expenses, before interest) have gone down a lot from 40m, 33m, 27m (2019-2021), with around 53% (?) occupancy in highly competitive KL office space where average occupancy is higher than 53%. The big question mark is can its gross rental income rise back to pre-pandemic levels and how many years will that take (if it can)? Or have we gone to a new norm. Management needs to be ruthless - the main drag is RM650m plus borrowings with large Financing costs. Having huge asset values at surplus is meaningless if rental income doesn't come in but having to keep paying interest on loans. It needs to sell some buildings to realize its values, pay off the loans and suddenly, this will unlock a lot of monies and this stock price can then rise again. The question is - can management realize the market values at a sale around this time? Or are the "market values" noted in the books not real today but assumes reversion? Hence the huge discount to Net Asset Values. For minor properties like the Alor Setar ex-Holiday Villa that is only worth RM26m and zero occupancy, better to just sell that off - even if collect less than 26m, at least the occupancy rates for the whole REIT looks better on paper. I suspect the reason they are not selling is because they might not even get 20m and if true, then, that would set a bad precedence for the rest of the properties in their books that needs to be marked down.
A distressed investor, banking on future recoveries, have to be very patient (many years), willing to accept continued dividend cuts. As to when a catalyst can occur to cause a re-rating, this is hard to see. I would like to see stronger management decisions, e.g. sell some properties to reduce borrowings then this cash will propel the stock price but question is - when is management going to do this and can they realize their worse properties? Who is going to buy at this market?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by Kalaihselvan Krishnan > 2019-09-25 18:44 | Report Abuse
Yes it is getting cheaper. Going in tomorrow