Hi all, I have a question regarding this quarter result. Since USD is stronger why this quarter result is worse than Q2? Is that due to the cost using USD or lower sales volume or just a seasonal problem?Please advice me.thank you.
i am not sure if it is fair to compare with last quarter as we have christmas,newyear and cny who could boost up the sales... however, the operating expense s higher for Q3 which lowers the profit also
Simple herding logic. Speculators thought the can make a quick buck from the good news by rushing in to buy early. Because everyone expect it to go up. But when the price no longer continue upwards, they get panic and cut loss. This happens everywhere. If u dont understand it by now. Its better to stay clear from the stock market.every individuals objective is different.
for people that wonder why homeritz cant up even with this good result ... this is because the play already started few months ago when USD start to stronger against ringgit, that time homeritz is below 1 ... the result is expected. nothing surprise ... buy on rumor sell on news always right in stock market ...
Results Homeritz’s 9MFY15 revenue of RM108.31 (+15% yoy) translated into PATAMI of RM16.91 and accounted for 65% of our full year estimation (versus average of 63% of full year earnings).
Deviations We deem the earnings in line with our expectations as historically, 3Q represents on average 21% of full year earnings (versus 24% of our full year estimation for the current quarter).
Dividends A first interim single tier tax-exempt dividend of 1.5 sen was declared in 3Q (FY14: 1 sen).
Highlights 9MFY08/15 review… The group achieved revenue of RM108.31m, an increase of 15% yoy, mainly due to growth in volume of sales and stronger US$. Its PATAMI improved 12% yoy, from RM15.06 in 9MFY14 to RM16.91 in 9MFY15, despite the absence of its pioneer status tax incentive. 3QFY15 review… Revenue increased 25% yoy. PBT was up 53% yoy to RM9.07 in 3QFY15, from RM5.94 in 3QFY14. The improved performance in 3QFY15 compared to 3QFY4 was attributed to the higher sales volume and strengthening US$. Stronger USD… Based on our ec onomist’s projection, RM would strengthen to average RM3.60-3.70 against US$ by year end. Sensitivity analysis shows that every RM0.10/US$ appreciation will boost FY16 net profit by about 6%.
Risks USD weakness against RM; high raw material prices; high labour costs; unexpected economic downturn; and production or operational risks.
Forecasts Our FY16 net profit forecasts are raised by 6.3% to RM38.06m, to account for higher US$:RM assumption of RM3.60/US$ (vs. RM3.50/US$ previously).
Rating Maintain BUY, TP: RM1.42 (+26% upside) Posi tives: 1) the group would benefit from strong US$; (2) its revenue and PATAMI are expected to grow at CAGR of 9% and 23% respectively from FY14 to FYE16; (3) forecasted FY15 net cash per share of 14.7sen; and (4) still attractive FY15E DY of 3.1%, based on 40% payout ratio.
Valuation We raise our TP from RM1.21 to RM1.42 mainly to reflect: (1) higher US$ assumption of RM3.60/US$ (vs. RM3.50/US$ previously); and (2) higher target P/E of 11x (from 10x previously), given Homeritz’s improving earnings visibility.
when the report was issued out with TP 1.4..ringgit/USD was 3.8...now 3.85..My prediction is will be as bad as 4.0 in September when the Feds raise interest rate..so that's 20c higher and net profit can 12% more. But report only assume 3.6 ringgit/USD- not sure that is assumption for next 2 quarters or average for the whole year. If average for the year then sure, Homeritz only deserves TP 1.40-1.50 by year end..if not..it well deserves RM1.70.-180 and I can see them doing another bonus issue and share split to goreng more by year end. Simply stated, this counter has another 30-40% upside before year end. Why wanna chase other risky counters that may face huge selldown after Federal Reserve hike when this is so safe. Look at the shareholder analysis. ALMOST NO FOREIGN SHAREHOLDErS!! So the risk of a selldown is super low..And local funds and HNW clients will only chase more and more as USD appreciates so when Malaysian economy and political crisis gets worse, Homeritz actually benefits more! This is simply one of the counters to go in now given the forward PE is 10x...so cheap. Look at SKP resources, goreng like hell after they won dyson contract and when ringgit plunge from 3.7-3.85 now...Homertiz didnt get goreng as much because it is much smaller and did not win a guaranteed contract..But all it has to do is maintain current performance the the USD strength will already make its margins stronger. BUY BUY BUY TP next 7-8 weeks = RM1.40 HUAT AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Aiyah, everyone was hoping to make a quick profit when the results came out so they queued to sell. Earnings were amazing and investors will be jumping in to pick up the dividend soon. At the current price, it is very cheap.
BUY la what are u all waiting this morning I boguth another 200k to enjoy the good dividends coming. 50% increase in dividend apa lagi lu mau? DAMN GOOD STOCK AIM RM1.30 within 3 months + dividend 1.5cents/share HUAT ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
My personal opinion, may be wrong : Yes.....the shares issued are no longer 200,000,000 but 300,000,000. The latest quarter result still using 200,000,000 to calculate the EPS. I believe by that month when month end closing the shares issued still 200,000,000.
lol newbie la u blackdove that also dunno. Anyways ringgit/USD is 3.855 now. Hopefully 3.86 by end of this week and 3.9 by end of this month as it approaches Sep for the US Rate Hiking. Accumulate now, tq. Safest counter now (almost no foreign shareholders), beneficiary of stronger USD. 20-30% upside within one Q..mark my words
Icube, compared to 1st quarter, 2nd quarter currency rate is still higher... But, the company is still earning lesser...which might indicate a problem...
the net profit was lower for q2 and share is not diluted yet for Q2... so, the EPS is around 2++ if we factor in diluted shares~~ my point to this counter: still earning, but not as good as expected... generally, it is stille earning $$~~ but internally any problem caused lower profit = unknown.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tim09
222 posts
Posted by tim09 > 2015-07-30 17:54 | Report Abuse
Yes very nice 3rd qtr results, the 1.5sen dividend is a surprise indeed, tomorrow is going to be a good day for homer.