The fact that certain stocks have declined by more than 30% to 60% does make a compelling case for bargain hunting. As Bill Ackman pointed out, the simplistic approach of assigning a P/E multiple to analyst estimates of next year's earnings is not valid for the current environment as the next 12 months of earnings are not representative of the true long-term earning power of most companies. In fact, very likely, the current crisis will disrupt the cash flows for the next 12-24 months. Having said that, generally, the disruption anticipates to destroy perhaps 5 - 10% of the value of the business.
For the case of Muhibbah, i see downside risk is rather limited, of course no one knows how market perception will change in the future. But at current valuation, i'm looking at least 20% upside potential.
In my oppinion, Muhibbah is a long term investment. Here's what I think.
1) It is currently very undervalued. Even its subsidiary company - favelle favco have a larger market cap.
2) All bad news have been priced in, everyone already know this year going to be bad, this is certainly is discounted price.
3) Cambodia have one of the least cases of covid in the world, it'll be just a matter of time before tourist flocks the airport again, hopefully by 2021.
4) Muhibbah dividend track record is very promosing, they often reward their investors, we don't have to worry if we hold this stock for a long time.
6) This company has one of the biggest cash balance, it will help soften the blow by covid, and definitely they won't go bankrupt.
7) 400M+ market cap is definitely small for a successful company like Muhibbah.
8) Muhibbah is business record looks very strategic, always doing good decisions, like acquiring favelle favco. The airports might look like a bad decision, but who would have thought a pandemic would come, plus it will still be a profitable investment as they'll keep on generating profit till 2040 at least.
9) Analyst keeps their price between 1.15-1.35 in their latest research even after acknowledging the airport revenue problem.
My conclusion. This is a bluechip that is oversold, a stock that you can hold forever and sleep in peace. My advice, buy and hold.
The Cambodia Airports are the best investment of Muhibah. Muhibbah's 21% stake in the Concession Company, SCA as of 31st March 2020, has a carrying value of approximately RM700 million with high level of cash and very little debts.
The estimated amount of profit, just Muhibbah's portion of 21%, retained in SCA (Cambodia Airport), after paying dividends, accumulated from 2011 to 2019 is a whopping rm 431million. Not yet counted the earlier years before 2011.
This alone is already accounted for 90% of the present company Market Cap of RM485 millions.
"The construction of a deep water port terminal Phase I in Sihanoukville Autonomous Port is scheduled to start in 2021 and take three years to complete.
Mr. Thay Rithy, Deputy Director General of Sihanoukville Autonomous Port, told AKP that the detailed design of the project has been completed and it is now in the process of selecting a construction company.
“Now we have entered the stage of selecting builders, and the construction will begin in 2021 and is scheduled to be completed by 2024," he said.
The deep port terminal has a length of 350 metres with a water depth of 14.50 metres, which can handle container vessels of 13 metre deep, and medium-sized vessels with a capacity of 5,000 TEU.
The first phase of the deep port terminal will be built with a loan from Japan of about $209 million. Chea Vannak Heng Panha - AKP "
This is what Muhibah is good at. Did Muhibah tendered for the job? I think should have. Just hope that Muhibah will secure the job. :)
How much incomes can be derived in handling of the cargoes from import and export via the 3 international airports? Incomes not all gone with low passengers traffic. Cargoes still have to be imported or exported.. Isn't it?
Stay calm, a lot of investors are looking for quick returns. Muhibbah on the other hand is very uncertain right now, especially with airport traffic in record low and disruption on energy & contruction business. It is no wonder muhibbah price is currently this low. But usually all this bad news has leads to the stock being oversold, undervalued.
But don't look at short term, look at 1-2 years later. Muhibbah has always paid its investor a hefty amount of dividend consistently, that shows they care for their investors. And I really love their cash balance, low debt, and business strategy, they're consistently growing at a safe pace.
No matter how much loss you're having by holding this stock, don't sell it, because it will bounce, might be later than we expect but still it will bounce and get back to real value above RM2, while you wait, enjoy the dividends.
Should get some work from this HSR project? JOHOR BAHRU (July 29): Tomorrow, the Johor Causeway will once again become the location for a symbolic agreement between Malaysia and Singapore, to proceed with the Rapid Transit System (RTS) project connecting Johor and the republic.
The Causeway was also the venue for a historic meeting on Sunday when Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein and his Singaporean counterpart Dr Vivian Balakrisnan met and agreed on cross-border travel between the two countries.
Tomorrow’s meeting is considered historic and symbolic as this will be the first time Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyddin Yassin will be meeting Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on the Johor causeway.
This will also be their first face-to-face meeting since Muhyiddin was appointed as the 8th Prime Minister on March 1, while Lee himself was just sworn in for another term as Prime Minister on July 27, following the victory of his party, People’s Action Party (PAP), in the recent general election.
After three postponements, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to finally agree to proceed with the RTS construction tomorrow.
RTS, a four-kilometre line connecting Bukit Chagar in Johor Bahru and Woodlands in Singapore, will help reduce congestion on the Johor Causeway, which has been listed as one of the busiest land border crossings in the world.
Before the Movement Control Order (MCO) was implemented on March 18, the Johor Causeway was used by about 350,000 travellers daily.
The RTS project has gone through a series of discussions under three Malaysian Prime Ministers and is expected to cost about RM3.7 billion, with the specifications having been agreed upon by Malaysia and Singapore.
The two-phase project is expected to begin in 2021 and be completed by the end of 2026.
Relax, its uncertainty, hence why the selling in Muhibbah.
Once we get a real access to the business damage and recovery road, we'll bounce back. Investors hate uncertainty, that leads to selling aggressively until oversold.
By the time you panicked and sell also, its probably already the dip. So its better you hold.
We're already oversold and I'm buying more. Muhibbah have strong cash balance, good dividends even in rough times and i sure believe they'll recover.
Pandemic and other rubbish stock which 30% limited up related counter will be collapsed soon, all money will flow back to blue chip stock like muhibah.
Vaccine is coming, but I will not listen to Malaysia company that hoo haa say that they got contract. I will sell off my Hexza.
Construction will boom, but I still will sell my Muhibbah, Gkent and Mahsing. This is because the expected Q3 result to drop, so the price will soon follow.
On my trip to Woodlands, I thought that Technology will boom, so I have made the decision to put 98% of my cash into Technology stocks like Dufu, Penta and MPI.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
WorldWideInvestor
239 posts
Posted by WorldWideInvestor > 2020-07-04 19:26 | Report Abuse
Looking forward to next week