Orient's RNAV easily RM15-18

Gold intrinsically is a natural hedge against sticky inflation. Look at your typical breakfast menu (commodities market for coffee, cocoa and orange juice at all time high). Energy prices are at elevated levels (crude oil above 90 per barrel) supported by both supply and demand equations:
Supply side = rising geopolitical tension, disruption at russian refineries
Demand side = strong manufacturing data in China & US (latest PMI) indicates strong demand for industrial metals (hence, energy consumption)

Gold is best hedge against geopolitical risk (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, China-Phillipines, China-Taiwan, Venezuala-Guyana. etc)

US debt levels at all time high. Huge budget deficit + election year heightened uncertanties.

Massive buying of gold from Central Banks of China and Japan. Both countries have been net seller of USD treasuries and buyer of Gold.

Also, watch out the Global money supply. Money supply is increasing, higher risk of currency debasement. Hence, more demand for Gold as a hedge.

Congrats! As Buffett famously said, stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

With cocoa beans prices at historically all time high and supply deficits anticipated to worsen until next year, many cocoa processing plants have stopped or reduced processing as they can't afford to buy beans at high premium or unable to secure supply. Cocoa market has turned into a SELLER'S MARKET.

GCB will gain pricing power in this seller's market. There was time lag in cost pass through. This financial year, expect to see higher combined ratio and margin expansion to more than offset higher finance costs. As mentioned previously, GCB inventories increased by 75% to RM2.8billion, sufficient supply for the year. This is unprecedented times indeed, and GCB is in good position to gain more footprint and expand their market share.

I would not be surprised, if they can double their earnings in FY2024.

As anticipated, Superlon results were good with both revenue and net profit increasing for 3 consecutive quarters in a row.

Q1 Revenue - 27860, NP - 2326
Q2 28974, 3694
Q3 30445, 3922

As typical to all Taiwanese owned companies, Superlon pays dividend every quarter. Strong dividend player backed by net cash and robust operating cash flows.

While climate change is an existential crisis, its good for Superlon business as heatwave will spur higher demand for air conditioners. their high-quality thermal insulation reduces the energy required to power air conditioner.

They are on track to hit RM100mil in revenue this year (RM87mil in 9M YTD). If not mistaken, they ranked fourth or fifth globally with exports more than 70 countries. Net beneficiary of strong USD.

GCB grinds beans and sell to end consumer (e.g. Hershey). Naturally, high cocoa bean prices will impact their grinding margin.

Unfortunately, cocoa prices may potentially to go higher due to combination of few factors:
1) 60% of cocoa beans came from west africa (Ghana, Ivory Coasts, Nigeria, Cameroon)
2) there has been very little planting in these countries for the last few years. The trees are very old and producing less and less. Also, old trees are sensitive to bad weather and disease. which currently impacting the production yield severely, due to bad weather and prevalent of disease. especially the disease/virus more widespread in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Low planting also is a structural issue faced by agri farmers all over the world. Poor pay disincentives human labour to invest and involved in agriculture.
3) New regulation from EU on deforestation which means that beans that have been produced in new planted area cannot go into Europe.

Good news is, if you look at GCB balance sheet. Their inventories went up by 75% to RM2.8bil which means GCB had restocked significantly at much lower prices.

Last quarter, they did a record quarterly revenue of RM1.8bil. Highest ever revenue which means the business is growing and they were able to raise higher selling prices.

Let's look at the end consumer Hershey. In their latest 2024 outlook, the company still expects sales to grow 2-3% in 2024 which means demand still robust despite the higher prices.

End of day, weigh your own risk and reward and invest wisely. Cheers!

Fantastic yield on your investment. I have received 35 sen dividends to date. At my cost price of RM0.90, recouped 38% of capital from dividends.

As the world shifting towards generative AI....the demand for electricity will be explosive. Data centres will easily eat 5000MW of electricity consumption. No power. No AI.

Also, massive upgrade of transmission grid is needed to cater for green energy. Tenaga earns fees for usage of their transmission grid.

Best proxy to our country's energy transition agenda.

Just spotted inconsistencies within IEA's oil demand projections. Their Q1 oil demand was projected to increase to 1.7M bpd. While their 2024 oil demand was forecasted to rise by 1.3M bpd. These implied a fall in demand for the rest of the year. Seems unlikely given global economy remain resilient. US GDP estimated to grow by 2.3% in Q1.

MYEG now owned 16.08% stake in HeiTech Padu

Oil price stays above $85. good for upstream earnings. The IEA had just upgraded their view on oil outlook for 2024. Raising world oil demand to 1.3 million bpd in 2024 against supply deficit.

Dialog's terminals business remain resilient admist the Red Sea crisis. tank utilisation sustained at 90%-95% and monthly spot storage rates holding above the SG$6 per cubic meter (cbm) levels.

EPCC losses have narrowed significantly in the past two quarters, and management guided that all legacy EPCC contracts during COVID will be completed by Jun 2024F. After that, Dialog expects the EPCC division to either break even or be slightly profitable.

Sell Xpeng EVs much better than Peugeot.

No one interested in Superln? Coming result would be good.

Head i win, tail i don't lose much.

ROE increased to 5.7% in FY2023, from 4.2% in FY2022 and 2% in FY2021. With expected improvement in coming FY, ROE conservatively can achieve 6%. P/BV of 0.6x of historical BV of RM2.30 = RM1.38

Selling is harder than buying. As a guide, there are various metrics that you can use. Lets use PEG ratio. At current price 23.90, PE ratio = 23.90/1.71 =13.98x. 2023 EPS grew by 17.93%.

P/E-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio = 13.98/17.93 = 0.78. Its PEG remain below 1.0

To reach PEG of 1, the implied PE is 17.93x. Based on latest EPS of 1.71, share price = 1.71 x 17.93 = RM30.66

By next week, UP will reach the new milestone of reaching RM10 billion market cap category.

PE at 15x. Share price RM25

Congrats all shareholders. CPO is within hair breath from 4k now.

QL results SUPERB. Highest quarterly profit again!

Warren Buffett in its latest annual letter wrote about the lesson from Coke and American Express. "When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable."

UP not only outperformed its peers, they even outperformed themselves with FFB average yield/ha increased by 1.50% and OER increased by 2.20%. Their superior operational performance mainly due to their prime age oil palm trees coupled with mechanisation effort as well as sterling plant breeding techniques (high-yielding seed, Clonal DxP).

They can return more cash to shareholders. They have abandoned their plan to expand Guocera tiles business. Looking at this, it's more likely they will dispose of this non core assets following recent disposals. Their annual operating cash flow amounts to at least RM500mil. This is enough to fund their entry into auto spare parts business.

At current price, the case of Shang assets (5 hotels and landbanks) are seriously undervalued even taking into account the worst scenario of full write down of its Myanmar associate.

Aberdeen ceased as substantial shareholders. That's good news.

Fundamentally, the worse is over. Their associate in Myanmar book value is about 200mil after years of impairment. Their land in Penang are all valued at decades old valuation. For example, the undeveloped land at Rasa Ria carried at only 21 sen psf. If revalued at 100psf, there are huge revaluation surplus. With the ongoing property boom in Penang, those undeveloped land is a gold mine, including 8 acre plot in prime area of Batu Ferringhi (book value recorded at RM27 psf).

Shang's fame lies it its strong brand luxury hotels and management. Shang KL (662 room, 5 star hotel) with book value per room of only RM288K. This is absurdly low figure compared to other luxury hotels which sold at RM1million per room.

The Penang hotels even more cheap. Rasa Sayang book value per room is RM315k, Golden Sands at only RM123k. Just take the book rate per night as benchmark and work out the market valuation for these hotels.

Shang is deeply undervalued, prime candidate for privatization. Trading at massive discount to its RNAV.

Their occupancy rates have been improving gradually ranging from 61% to 82%. With Q4 holiday season, expect the hotels to do very well. You can check google review to get a sense of their hotel bookings.

But this quarter was a real blow out.

I remember few years back, Lay Hong was traded at RM1

Touch macro conditions reflected in the results. A very bad quarter result, even worse than Q2 2020 when the whole global economy entered into lockdown.

Their 9 months free cash flow amounted to 14 sen per share. They have paid 3 sen dividend thus far. Hope for a more juicy dividend in Q4

They did 9 billion revenue last financial year. 2023 should end up mid of 9 bil and anticipate to break 10 billion in 2024. Their margins have been improving recently. Last quarter they earned about 7% profit margin. Very likely, we will see Q4 earnings being the highest on record.

EPS at least 8 sen. 15x PE - RM1.20, 20x PE - RM1.60

How to explain TSH results dropping by 44%? Next week UP results will surprise you.

Wait for management to sell their non-core assets of Guocera tiles business and more bumper dividends for us.

Special dividend 50 sen 😋

The Group is focusing its attention and resources in preparing for this opportunity and is committed to complete all necessary deliverables to ensure its readiness to participate in the exercise. Participation in the upcoming LSS bidding aligns with Uzma Group's strategic objectives and government's Energy Transition towards 2050 Net-zero target.

SKP main client is Dyson which accounts 75-80% of revenue. Individiually, the rest are immaterial.

Best quarterly profit in last 5 years.

Luckily managed to bought first batch at 1.98, averaged again at 1.82 and last batch at 1.76. Take balls to keep buying the dip.

TP1.30-1.50

Are their MC correlates? why need to benchmark against them? JTiasa is being valued at 7x trailing PE. forward PE is about 5

@xiaoeh engine baru start, buying momentum is strong. we are entering seasonally weaker production, CPO price 3.9k-4k is conducive enough for planters to make handsome profit

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

RM25 first target

Don't forget they have huge forest plantation of 30,978 ha. Based on RM4K/ha, its equity value worth RM124million.

Cheapest plantation play remains JTIASA, by a far margin. 5-6x PE. Q4 FFB production increased 30% y-o-y.

Risk management on stock price? What is Berkshire class A shares trading now??
Go and find out why Warren Buffett never allows a share split on its stock.

Best in class plantation company, very well managed and profitable. trading at less than 12x PE. and some people shout overvalued. what are you doing here, anyway?

3 billion market cap company. of which 1.6 billion net cash. generates 280-300 million annual profit. very profitable company at cheap valuation. HOLD.

The secret to make money is to buy right and hold tight.

Congratulations to all shareholders. Been a long time holder of UP. Just do nothing and wait for harvest.