Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-15 17:26 | Report Abuse

I think tmr will up again, refer to previous trend.

Posted by kenlee > 2012-05-16 13:06 | Report Abuse

always remember buy espensive uptrend stock is much better then buy cheap downtrend stock ...

Posted by Jester > 2012-05-16 13:42 | Report Abuse

wait first. Don't be greedy. Look at market sentiment first.

Patience is virtue.

Cheers!

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-16 20:32 | Report Abuse

look like tmr is stable but never buy,its fake, the next day'll drop more XD

Posted by kl foong > 2012-05-16 20:54 | Report Abuse

see how dow jones closes.

Posted by kcfan > 2012-05-16 23:15 | Report Abuse

Share Price: RM1.59
Target Price: RM1.98

Investment Highlight

We initiate coverage on Padini with a BUY call and target price of RM1.98. We value Padini at 13.5x FY13PER which is at its upcycle PE (slightly higher than its +1 standard deviation above mean) in view of its resilient earnings, potential higher dividend payout and continued rising attention of investors in quality mid-cap consumer counters.
Quality mid-cap consumer stock as the favourite among investors. Padini as one of the quality mid-cap stock with strong track record of earnings growth and proven business model becomes the favourite among investors under the current market uncertainty. Although Padini’s share price has gone up 45.9% ytd, we believe current closing still render 24.5% potential upside against our target price as investors would re-rate the stock higher.
Commendable earnings growth. Revenue and net earnings of Padini have grown at 4-year CAGR of 15.7% and 24.3% respectively thanks to its defensive business model. Padini’s topline is resilient to economic crisis in 2008/09 when the Group still managed to record uninterrupted growth rate.
Aggressive expansion in FY12 to boost sales further. The Group targets to open additional 9 stores in FY12 which are three concept stores and six Brands Outlets. Moving forward to FY13, the Group plans to open Brands Outlet in Fahrenheit, KL. Besides, Padini is currently in negotiation with Genting Group to open a Brands Outlet at the Genting Hotel Complex. Upon successful of negotiation, there will be at least two new stores opening in FY13.
Improving earnings margin despite external headwinds. Earnings margins of Padini have improved in the past 4 years. Gross margin has increased from 49.8% in FY08 to 51.2% in FY11. Notably, gross margin in FY11 improved despite the sharp rally of cotton price. Furthermore, rising margin is unfazed by the minimum wage introduced in China’s coastal provinces. We think it is attributable to the Group’s procuring goods from cheaper source such as western part of China. Similarly, profit before tax margin has increased from 15.0% in FY08 to 18.5% in FY11. We render the improving margins to the better cost savings by opening Brands Outlet and running its own stores (i.e. single brand stores and Concept Stores) instead of consignment. We believe high efficiency of Padini could be sustained with gross margin and profit before tax margin of above 50.7% and 18.0% respectively in the future.
Rising contribution from Brands Outlet. The first Brands Outlet was opened in year 2006. Revenue contribution of Brands Outlet has since increased from 4.1% in FY07 to 16.0% in FY11. Although the selling price of Brands Outlet is relatively lower as compared to Concept Stores, Brands Outlet still commands comparable margin against Concept stores. The Group is focusing on expanding its number of Brands Outlet. Moving forward, we expect the earnings contribution of Brands Outlet to increase without sacrificing its overall margin.
Resilient domestic consumption. We reckon that Padini could benefit from the strong domestic consumption pursuant to the government’s cash handout and pay rise of civil servant. Malaysia’s retail sales in 2011 was RM83b and Retail Group Malaysia (RGM) estimates that retail sales in 2012 continue to grow at 6% translating into RM88.2b.
Potential higher dividend payout. Padini has consistently paid out over 35% of its net profits as dividends to reward shareholders over the past 4 years. Going forward, we think that the Group may increase its dividend payout ratio as it is now with net cash of RM133m or RM0.21/share and we expect the Capex for FY13-14 to trend lower with lesser outlets being opened. Assuming 50% dividend payout in FY13, the Group would reward shareholder of 7 sen/share or equivalent to yield of 4.4%.
Improved liquidity. Trading volume of Padini share has been gradually picked up since the share split and change of share ownership of one of its major shareholder in 2011. Puncak Bestari, one of the Group’s major shareholder, disposed its 179.3million shares or 27.25% of stakes in Padini in April 2011. It is believed that the shares ownership were then transferred to institutional investors which include PNB. As at May 2012, Padini is having more than 50% of free-floating shares. We view the improved liquidity could ignite institutional investors’ interest in the stock.

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-17 02:39 | Report Abuse

padini is like a money earning machine, high earnings with low equity, less weight & flexibility make it print money faster than others :) just like DLADY! XD

Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-17 14:19 | Report Abuse

Tmr will up

Posted by cheese > 2012-05-17 14:51 | Report Abuse

support

Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-17 18:03 | Report Abuse

see the closing, i told ur guys.

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-17 21:26 | Report Abuse

tomorrow haven't come. but support. worth to keep for life?

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-17 23:20 | Report Abuse

looks like tmr will crash~

Posted by Teh Tiong Boon > 2012-05-17 23:32 | Report Abuse

Worth buy to keep forking term

Posted by Mohd Shuk > 2012-05-18 02:10 | Report Abuse

Gud stock but gud to wait 1st. Market still bad. I will buy when market recover back! Good FA stock!

Posted by kenlee > 2012-05-18 10:36 | Report Abuse

... do something wrong today, buy at 1.61 ... now 1.59

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-18 16:12 | Report Abuse

so what is the reasonable price? :D i will buy in at 1.50 :D

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-18 16:20 | Report Abuse

just add Padini. love this counter.

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-18 16:36 | Report Abuse

how much you buy in??

Posted by kenlee > 2012-05-18 17:14 | Report Abuse

no good ... close at 1.56, 1 bid higher then lowest 1.55 ... the rest rebound few bids at least

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-18 17:52 | Report Abuse

1.57

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-19 00:29 | Report Abuse

1.45~1.40 is the support i think

Posted by franky > 2012-05-19 01:38 | Report Abuse

Anwkentucky, same will support samw price with u how will drop more huhu

Posted by necro > 2012-05-19 01:41 | Report Abuse

zzzzzZZZ....

Posted by kenlee > 2012-05-20 01:06 | Report Abuse

1.52 is the 1ast support before reach 1.4 ...

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-21 23:35 | Report Abuse

hope that tmr wont drop cause of 丁蟹 indicator

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-22 11:16 | Report Abuse

tmr i think will drop better dump first

Posted by istyletech > 2012-05-22 11:28 | Report Abuse

market goin well , dump now?? LOL

Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-22 12:57 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow will drop a little bit.

Posted by Jolly Mypet > 2012-05-22 13:56 | Report Abuse

maybe but judging by dji big rebound yesterday probably will go south tonight then our klci will .....

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-22 16:38 | Report Abuse

hope tmr will drop til 1.5x again lo. haha then i will collect again :D

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-22 19:38 | Report Abuse

agreed kyle

Posted by Adam Ryan > 2012-05-22 20:18 | Report Abuse

Good Stock but always miss it!

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-22 20:36 | Report Abuse

1.63 tmr is a good buy
but it will easily drop to 1.57 if anything happen
1.50 is averaging down price
1.40~1.45 is the lowest it can get

Posted by hw0706 > 2012-05-23 07:54 | Report Abuse

Price RM1.70
Fair Value RM2.15

We re-affirm BUY on Padini Holdings and raise our fair value to
RM2.15/share (from RM1.80/share previously), based on a 10% discount to
our revised DCF value of RM2.39/share (implied PE of 14x FY12F).

Following a recent meeting with management, Padini remains on track to
open another five stores in FY12F, the full impact of which would be felt in
FY13F. Its 3QFY12F results will be released at end-May. We expect a strong
set of 3Q results, as earnings are expected to improve in tandem with its
aggressive store opening. Year-to-date, five out of 10 planned new stores
have opened.

Since April, trendy clothing (circa 25% of Padini) – mainly for Padini
Authentic, P&Co, SEED – have been ordered directly from manufacturers in
China, instead of using agents. As a result, marginal savings in cost and
production lead time have shrunk considerably from six to two months,
enabling Padini to stay relevant within the fashion industry and to churn out
new designs at a faster pace.
• To recap, Padini is still in talks with FJ Benjamin Indonesia with regard to
the Vincci franchise licence. Should this potential collaboration
materialises, it is expected to be finalised by year-end and the distribution
to officially commence in 2HFY13. Given that Indonesia is an untapped
market, the short- to medium-term impact would not be significant until the
size of distribution network in Indonesia grows considerably large.
• We believe that the recent National Minimum Wage Policy of RM900 and
RM800 for Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia, respectively, would have
inconsequential impact on earnings. Currently, the lowest salary is the front
line sales staff in East Malaysia at RM600, with only seven stores. Padini
has an estimated 3,000 employees, of whom less than 10% would be
beneficiaries of the new policy.

Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-23 12:04 | Report Abuse

It wont down to 1.4+ but may be 1.5+ due to the market now still not yet stable. Australia now in red.

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-23 12:29 | Report Abuse

trust me financial crisis is on the way, not far from now. then padini will be less than 1.00, then u can shop happily.invest some in gold n silver. good price to buy now.

Posted by E R > 2012-05-23 12:55 | Report Abuse

noob

Posted by Eddie > 2012-05-23 13:11 | Report Abuse

ha ha ha, impossible la.. oh no! it may happen ........ in ur dream.

Posted by hw0706 > 2012-05-23 13:13 | Report Abuse

Padini’s share price may continue climbing after the strong showing yesterday. Purchases can be made above the prior 2-day high of RM1.63 with a close below the 23 April gap of RM1.55 as the stop loss. The price target is the psychological RM2.00, provided that the recent high of RM1.80 is broken. A correction may take over if the stock closes below RM1.55.

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-23 13:32 | Report Abuse

then make dream come true:)

Posted by hw0706 > 2012-05-23 13:36 | Report Abuse

sell in May Buy later. I hope will go down as you wish.

Posted by alvinwin > 2012-05-23 16:16 | Report Abuse

but seems hardly to drop to that level..unless some1 are speculating and others follow the rumours and trends..their fundamental and ongoing plans have shown the potential climbing of this little boy since it's undervalued and underestimated..
unless there are some1 making the opportunities for us 2 buy more cheap priced units lar...kekeke....
coz i juz started collecting from 0.99..still sayang to let him go..not enough capital to buy it and keep..missed out many times..hope more forcesellers are here to make the opportunity for me to buy more..dun wanna miss it anymore..

Posted by anwkentucky > 2012-05-23 22:14 | Report Abuse

there are always chances, believe this, bad stocks are bought at good times, good stocks are bought at bad times. only naive ppl will think financial crisis can be avoided, actly there tons of smart n big market players out there want it so badly!

Posted by E R > 2012-05-24 08:07 | Report Abuse

too much talking without understanding correlation.. noob

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-24 18:53 | Report Abuse

padini pls drop more n more tmr :D

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-24 19:49 | Report Abuse

why wait if you think it's worth?
if want to wait, then depends on your waiting price. Any price is possible. I am waiting at 1.00

Posted by mhafizan > 2012-05-24 19:58 | Report Abuse

u sure rm 1 is possible?

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-24 20:03 | Report Abuse

nothing is impossible in this world just timely matter, except violate the principle of rule which you want to buy at negative price.

Posted by mhafizan > 2012-05-24 21:26 | Report Abuse

honestly unless u're expecting massive selldown due to greece crisis or bad financial result, which is very unlikely with this share, i think rm 1 is highly unlikely in near futue

Posted by thunder_storm > 2012-05-24 21:40 | Report Abuse

yalo, that's possible lo, under crisis. As long as possible, it will be. just timely matter ma, i said