Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-23 20:57 | Report Abuse

As a key furniture sourcing point, we have benefited with more orders being received from our customers for shipments all the way until Jun / July 2021. We are confident that demand for our products will remain strong in the coming year. Our shipments have been particularly strong over the last few months and we are now up to speed with our production schedule vis-à-vis new supply and logistic arrangement. As before, we are developing products to cater for the stay at home and work from home requirement. We are of the view that the global furniture trade will continue its growth in 2021 as we adapt to the new normal and global economy activities return to normalcy.

They sound confident thou. (dunno over-confident or not)

But i think current price has priced in logistic issues which ppl thought would giv pohuat a bad qr. Fair value shud be 2.0 ish. If the market buys their story that there will be strong orders all the way until July 2021, and further growth in the furniture market overseas, no issue for the stock price to go further north.

I'm slightly sad that there is no announcement saying that they have expansions plans though, else this would further prove their confidence that there is a growing market in USA.

I can happily sit back again watching my position grow while collecting dividends. hehe

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-23 20:59 | Report Abuse

@bullrun1985 wa u chg ur attitude 180 degrees ya... should learn to be more decisive, do ur research, trust it and dun let stock prices influence you. Investors should look at intrinsic value.

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-23 21:57 | Report Abuse

poh huat cash in hand keep increasing.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-23 22:03 | Report Abuse

Yes, plus dividends have increased also. 7sen -> 8sen -> 9sen... hopefully the industry can keep growing, but nid to monitor myr exchange rate and logistics and raw material price

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-23 22:04 | Report Abuse

can contemplate adding another batch to reap more mid/ long term profits

Posted by yfchong > 2020-12-24 06:59 | Report Abuse

Really sui

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 08:17 | Report Abuse

Derrick, cash increase due to warrant conversion into mother

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 09:02 | Report Abuse

pohuat no power

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-24 09:24 | Report Abuse

Warrant conversion will increase on share capital and it had been stated on their qtr report, therefore you see Share capital had been increase on balance sheet. Cash in hand increase because low bank borrowings and liabilities. Therefore they should or they will increase their dividend paid out in next qtr.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 10:32 | Report Abuse

really huat.... up 3 cent

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 11:50 | Report Abuse

ppl stil wanna monitor the issue on logistics i guess, chill dulu

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 12:05 | Report Abuse

@Derrick juz realised we were wrong

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3116148

will have another 2 cents dividend, ex-date yet to be determined

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 14:56 | Report Abuse

zen2k, looks like big hand selling

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 15:06 | Report Abuse

yes large volume queuing to sell at 1.8-1.82, what can do, market have different ways of interpreting data. Wait for consolidation ba. And if fundamental turn sour or suddenly fly too far north, can sell lo. Can also sell now if u alrdy made money hehe

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 15:08 | Report Abuse

pohuat looks like old man running, see other furniture stock, fly like a bird

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-24 16:44 | Report Abuse

zen2k, what do you think pohuat??? earning good but price no good

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 16:54 | Report Abuse

Honestly speaking I think the fundamentals are sound. Their productions unlike other companies, are not only based in Malaysia, as they have a large factory in Vietnam. As we all know, MY currently having issues with the containers, and I'm not sure if its the same case in Vietnam. But according to QR, Vietnam brought in more revenue compared to the previous qtr, whereas Malaysia brought in lesser. So I infer that there are certain pros for basing labour-intensive production in Vietnam, maybe in terms of cost and logistics-wise.

In short, I am more comfortable knowing that if MY GG due to some emergency situation (touch wood), i can sleep soundly knowing that Vietnam operations may probably still cont.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:02 | Report Abuse

Then quantitative side, I compared it with the other best choice in this industry, Liihen. Liihen latest earning was 28.9m, Pohuat 22.1. So Pohuat's earnings is 0.76 of that of Liihen. Assuming Pohuat can maintain such earning levels, it should deserve 0.76 of Liihen's market cap?

Liihen's market cap is 738m. 0.76 x 738m = 560.88m
Divide 560.88m by 278.3m (number of shares) = 2.02 per share.
So if u apply a margin of safety, and look at the fact that pohuat does not have a better dividend than liihen, 1.7-1.8+ should be a fair value.

But, if it is observed that the coming qtrs, Liihen and Pohuat can do well or perhaps better than today in terms of earnings, I dont see why not it will not continue growing. Many people said furniture is cyclical, but I dont think the cycle has ended yet. (USA furniture market is booming) Hence, that is why I hold, from my previous low position, and topped up batches at fair value.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:06 | Report Abuse

There was a sharing by a fren showing that USD furniture Total Available Market yearly is 10B USD. Liihen only export worth 200M USD of furniture to USA. Do you see the room for growth there? If Liihen daigor can do well, Pohuat with its sound fundamentals and solid base in MY and Vietnam can do too bad either.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

That is at least my 2 cents that ive been betting on la, u nid to factor in ur entry price. If tomorrow fall until 1.5, i still making money, so... xD

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

cuz I planned to hold long term, if everything goes to plan.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:07 | Report Abuse

But 计划赶不上变化 哈哈哈哈 will continue monitor

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 17:08 | Report Abuse

can do not too bad* typo

Posted by Wirajati > 2020-12-24 18:51 | Report Abuse

Pohuat has good product mix including office furniture, which is good for #wfh. I am long with po huat.

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-24 19:11 | Report Abuse

From Trading View Technical Analysis , today selling trend was short term trader not banker,MACD Golden trend did not crossover yet. Bollinger band did not hit upper line, therefore short term trend unknown as i read from technical data. I had been invested on this counter since Aug'20 base on their fundamental base plus technical analysis trend. In short term maybe would not up too fast. But next 2 qtr should still will be good and EPS increase and price will increase accordingly. Therefore , don't expect share price will shot like rocket.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 20:00 | Report Abuse

thx Derrick for ur input

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-24 20:02 | Report Abuse

actually i take back a part of my words, 9 cents dividend divide by 1.79 is 5%. Just realised haha

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-24 20:23 | Report Abuse

From Aug until today plus dividend , return was around 55%. Although slow but steady . Hope next 2 qtr can reach 80% to 90% return. haha...

Posted by Wirajati > 2020-12-25 10:43 | Report Abuse

Even sern kou is doing good. Po huat will.

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-25 12:24 | Report Abuse

EPS for this qtr was = 9.2 sen, next first qtr maybe can reach around 9 sen again, and second qtr around 5-7 sen(due to chinese new year). average total 4 qtr EPS maybe at 28 sen-30sen , normally this counter PE was around 8 to 10.Next if management willing give there higher dividend payout % . Therefore estimate price may reach RM2.2 ro RM 2.4 half year later. There are around 25-30% (include dividend) of growth based on existing price .This is my view of this counter and i will still continue top-up when price is right.

Compare with Lii Hen, I think investment bank forecast LiiHen next 2 qtr EPS should be around 48 sen to 50 sen, Therefore when price drop to RM3.7, IB or some smart investor think PE is low. Therefore we saw Liihen able to up 30 sen within 3 days. (from RM3.7 to RM4.10) . And Liihen should able to reach RM4.80 to RM 5.00 based on same theory

Above all my personal view based on data , it able to prove my theory whether is right in 3 to 4 month later.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-25 18:40 | Report Abuse

Derrick, then what is the right price now???

Posted by Keyman188 > 2020-12-25 18:59 | Report Abuse

Safety margin shall be 1.60 ~ 1.65...

But recent this few months strongly supported above 1.70...

Keyman188 had recently bet in 1.72 & let go 1.82 for trading profits...

Since quarterly report already announced with substantial earnings growth...

Keyman188 will bet in again around 1.72 ~ 1.74 for upcoming day see whether got chance to crab or not...

If the price drop again to 1.60 ~ 1.65, Keyman188 sure will crab again...



If the price drop again to 1.50 ~ 1.55, Keyman188 sure will crab again...

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-25 21:53 | Report Abuse

I had crab, at 1.2,1.4,1.75 along from Aug until Dec to diversify risk. Agreed with keyman 188. 1.72 had strong resistance. I think price between 1.7:to 1.8 is good entry price. below 1.7 maybe a bit difficult unless big incident happen. If you able to accept estimate return below 20% on next 6 month. Below 1.90 still is your entry price. if you wish invest , remember to diverisfy.
For everyone info, furniture industries ,Nov and Dec shipment still good and hot.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-26 14:00 | Report Abuse

No effect from logistics ke @derrick

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-26 17:23 | Report Abuse

@Zen_2k, No. Situation was not serious as stated on newspaper.
We had to change working method to overcome container shortage.Existing most of furniture lead time is 120days-150days. Advise customer booking earlier,planning and ship out accordingly.
Homeriz will release their report on Jan'21 and LiiHen release their report on Feb'21. Later you may know what is actual outcome.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-26 23:55 | Report Abuse

Derrick u from the industry? Sounds like it

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-27 10:18 | Report Abuse

Yes. Same category as Poh Huat. Therefore almost know next 6 month trend. Just shared what I know.
Due increase on raw material. Recently some furniture manufacturer start increase their ASP.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-27 12:24 | Report Abuse

Derrick, when u wanna dispose poh huat?

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-27 16:23 | Report Abuse

when my estimate EPS over 10. I will disposed some and still hold some shares. Therefore there are not fix price because EPS for next qtr I think will increase.
For example. Liihen price 4.7 , a lot of ppl sell, and around 3.7 ,ppl start buying because PE was low and ppl think is undervalued.

Posted by zen_2k > 2020-12-28 01:43 | Report Abuse

USA housing still looks bullish, im still confident in my long position

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-28 15:55 | Report Abuse

all go to steel counter

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-28 16:47 | Report Abuse

Yes, I had bought some on CSXX and ANXXX at reasonable price on last Friday and had been disposed this morning and get some profit.

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-30 12:11 | Report Abuse

Top-up at 1.72 again on yesterday.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-31 15:25 | Report Abuse

all in liao at 1.75.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-31 15:36 | Report Abuse

USD lowest this year vs ringgit

Posted by Derrick Gan > 2020-12-31 17:17 | Report Abuse

@bullrun1985, FYI - panel board furniture industry buy their panel board normally in USD , therefore weak USD had minor impact on their profit if compare with wooden based furntiure industries.

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-12-31 18:00 | Report Abuse

Derrick, pohuat is panel board industry or wooden based industry

Posted by zen_2k > 2021-01-01 03:12 | Report Abuse

pohuat does both... panel in malaysia, wooden in vietnam, according to my understanding, but they said in their report they do have hedges against USD when they buy materials

Posted by I-BeAm Khong > 2021-01-03 14:38 | Report Abuse

Will there be any negative impact to Pohuat as USA banned Vietnam’s furniture?

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2021-01-04 09:41 | Report Abuse

zen2k, big drop today..... run or keep