based on Focus malaysia, OjiPaper is believed to be going to make a privatisation offer for Cenbond based on Price/Book multiple of 1.5. Based on NTA/share of RM1.3, this would translate to a TP of RM 1.95...
CENTURY BOND BHD Stock Name CENBOND Date Announced 23 Sept 2013 Category Entitlements (Notice of Book Closure) Reference No CB-130923-47409
EX-date 08/10/2013 Entitlement date 10/10/2013 Entitlement time 04:00:00 PM Entitlement subject Final Dividend Entitlement description Final Dividend of 1.0 sen less 25% tax and tax exempt dividend of 2.0 sen per ordinary share in respect of the financial year ended 31 March 2013 Period of interest payment to Financial Year End 31/03/2013 Share transfer book & register of members will be to closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlements Registrar's name ,address, telephone no SHAREWORKS SDN BHD No. 2-1, Jalan Sri Hartamas 8, Sri Hartamas, 50480 Kuala Lumpur Payment date 22/10/2013
OJI PAPER INTAI CENTURY BOND (Selasa, 17 Sep 2013)
Sumber: FocusM
1. Oji Paper Co Ltd (Oji Paper) syarikat tersenarai di Bursa Tokyo diberitakan sedang mengintai Century Bond Bhd yang merupakan syarikat pembungkusan, bagi pengukuhkan kedudukannya dalam perniagaan papan kotak beralunnya di Malaysia. 2. Century Bond merupakan antara syarikat terbesar dalam perniagaan pembungkusan dan kontrak pembuatan di rantau ini dan bakal menjadi syarikat pembungkusan ketiga diserap ke Oji Paper. 3. Oji Paper dikhabarkan bakal meletakkan harga pada 1.5 kali harga buku atau RM1.95 untuk 120 juta saham Century Bond. Berdasarkan laporan kewangan untuk suku pertama berakhir 30 Jun 2013, Nilai Aset Bersih (NTA) Century Bond adalah RM1.30 sesaham. Saham Century Bond diniagakan pada RM1.75 setakat 11 Sep 2013.Untuk tahun 2013, saham Century Bond melonjak pada harga paling tinggi iaitu RM1.97 pada 8 julai 2013 berbanding RM0.83 harga paling rendah pada 7 Feb 2013. 4. Pemegang saham terbesarnya adalah CB Equities Sdn Bhd (50.55%) yang dipegang oleh Kuan Hai Ngon, Datuk Tan Boon Leng, Tan Seok Kim, Tan Siew Kim (Pengarah Urusan) dan Tan Sui Moi. 5. Berdasarkan laporan kewangan tahunan berakhir 31 Mac 2013, Century Bond merekodkan keuntungan bersih yang lebih tinggi berjumlah RM19.15 juta berbanding RM14.8 juta untuk tahun sebelumnya. 6. Oji Paper mula menapak di Malaysia apabila mereka mengambilalih Paperbox Holding Ltd (Paperbox) daripada CVC Partners sebuah dana ekuiti persendirian pada Mac 2010. CVC sebelum itu pada tahun 2007, telah mengambil alih Paperbox yang merupakan syarikat induk kepada GS Paper & Packaging daripada Genting Sanyen pada nilai US$212 juta. 7. Pada ogos 2011, Oji Paper telah mengambilalih HPI Resources Bhd (HPI Resources) pada RM257.52 juta atau RM4.40 sesaham yang merupakan harga premium iaitu 37 sen atau 12% lebih tinggi daripada harga dagangan bernilai RM3.93 sesaham. 8. Harga tawaran tersebut adalah berdasarkan kepada 10.3 kali harga perolehan (PE) berdasarkan perolehan sesaham bernilai 42.8 sen. Ini bersamaan dengan 1.8 kali nilai buku HPI Resources yang merupakan syarikat induk Harta Packaging Group di Malaysia. 9. Oji Paper ditubuhkan pada tahun 1873, merupakan syarikat terbesar di Asia dan ke-enam terbesar di dunia. Oji Paper mengembang dan mengukuhkan kedudukannya melalui pengambilalihan dan menerajui penstrukturan semula industri di dalam dan di luar Jepun. Di Asia Tenggara, Oji Paper turut bertapak di Vietnam, Kambodia dan Thailand.
That is why I said it is a "risky" arbitrage, and not a "risk-free' arbitrage. Even if there is announcement, it is still a risky arbitrage because things can still fall through.
So it is the potential return which one bases the decision if the risk-reward is good and worth a punt. That 33% is an attractive punt. Even if that thing doesn't come true, Cenbond is still a good company to invest in based on my Magic Formula, ie a good company selling at attractive price.
yup... do u thinkk the Rm1.95 offer is fair if its true ? Looking at its past history, earnings hasnt exactly been growing greatly, the offer price of RM1.95 gives CENBOND a P/E of about 12x which I think is fair
KC, talking about risk-free investment, would you buy OGAWA at RM1.01 for a risk free return of 3.9% till privatised at RM1.05 ? I was just thinking of putting some spare cash into here... better than FD ma...
Kcchongnz at one time you were looking at freight. Any further notes on this one. Diam diam ubi. Ilb cenbond ttnt yinson all sudah jalan kuat. Looks like a theme play for some time now.
Posted by houseofordos > Sep 30, 2013 10:12 PM | Report Abuse yup... do u thinkk the Rm1.95 offer is fair if its true ? Looking at its past history, earnings hasnt exactly been growing greatly, the offer price of RM1.95 gives CENBOND a P/E of about 12x which I think is fair
Looking at the recent performance of Cenbond and its metrics, I would rate it as a good company with ROE and ROIC roughly at 13% and 17% respectively. It has good cash flows and a healthy balance sheet.
As for the price is concerned, at RM1.95, a PE ratio of 12x, price-to-book of 1.6, my pinion is it is a fair price.
But the acquirer may see synergies in buying it and they should know better the value of Cenbond to them. So if the rumour of takeover is reliable, buying Cenbond at around RM1.70 is a good risk arbitrage bet to me.
Posted by houseofordos > Sep 30, 2013 10:29 PM | Report Abuse KC, talking about risk-free investment, would you buy OGAWA at RM1.01 for a risk free return of 3.9% till privatised at RM1.05 ? I was just thinking of putting some spare cash into here... better than FD ma...
I did not follow the proposed takeover of Ogawa, missed it. I am not sure about the status of the takeover now. Is it confirmed with all documents signed? If not, it is not a "risk-free investment". It is still a risky arbitrage.
Whether it is worthwhile to indulge in this risky arbitrage also depends on what is the time frame you are talking about. Is the settlement soon? Is the acquirer starting to buy Ogawa from the open market at that price soon?
If it takes another 6 months or more to get your profit of 3.9%, it may not be lucrative as the annualized return is only 7.8%. I mean there is still risk involved if the offer falls off and Ogawa share price return to the previous price of much less than its present price now.
So the bottom line is what is your personal risk-reward view on this.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
4u2c
3,553 posts
Posted by 4u2c > 2013-07-15 18:03 | Report Abuse
maybe 1.90 was over priced at this point