Media nampak Crude Oil USD1 or negative then start to promote market collapse (now already in economic crisis). But no one care to study is it the real full picture they reported?
This is what media don't show you. Instead of worry, today i will apply derivative account to trade 6-12 months expired futures contract of crude oil! Haha.
What i know is now we are in recession this for sure and we already in the cycle of crisis and market reflecting it as well.
For the experts opinion, when market is good, they will foresee 30% up from current index; when market is bad, they will foresee 30% down from current index as well.
So my opinion is we always need to keep ourselves neutral when doing investment. Now the market still in scary mode and people easily we scared off due to some sudden drop event like yesterday night crude oil price.
Crude oil futures first of all, the holder have obligation to convert into physical holding. But our houses cannot store it, it is very specialised storage. In few months back, some market players already mentioned storage cap already hitting maximum soon. So meaning no more storage place to store the physical oil. So how the player to deal with it? must throw the contract away otherwise they need to spend more to think about how to store and utilise it. The sudden fall is due to the settlement on expiry of current Apr-May Futures contract.
but you go back to look on the CME Crude Oil futures contract on 3 months above crude oil quotes,, it is still stand firm on USD30 and above which still best suit the current situation. And i strongly believe, maybe next month wil be similar but after 2 months later, when all the lockdown by all countries reopen up, then they can start utilisation the inventories then oil price will surge it back as well back to USD30 which already reflected in the current futures price.
Anyhow, back to Eden. I still waiting for the ECRL land acquisition announcement, if it is correct, then it is worth to bet for this counter. But if confirmed it is calling off already, then no matter how low the price. I will throw it as well.
Crude Oil Price back to USD16 per barrel d. If there are some countries come into operations (example China), then soon will bounce back to USD20 at least. Media always over-report without sharing the fair position. Hopefully no one just due to news to sell their position.
Quick update. Some local and singapore investment banks already started to temporary cease their energy derivatives trading (WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil) for retailers (for the official reason of volatility). Oil price will be soon relatively stable, say in 1 month time after filtered out those "traders".
Recently I made further detailed analysis of Eden shareholding and found interesting facts.
I forgotten who in this forum saying that there are seem more than 1 group of operators (not same boss ya, totally different). This possible is correct, they are from different perspectives.
But waiting for the same good result.
I will share it tomorrow once I done the full picture investigation.
Existing Owner Group - Zil Enterprise and Tan Sri Rahim Mohd (Muhyiddin Family in Law)
New Investor Group - Advance Opportunities Fund
Currently, there are 2 groups of people in the Eden shares.
Existing Owner Group currently working hard balance ECRL land acquisition to secure their best position and this cannot be later than Apr-May 2020.
Alternatively, New Investor Group will securing their controlling ownership (due to their asset, main consider Kuantan Land as railway and station confirmed go thru and located nearby their place). Currently is this group of people trying to control the pricing not up so excessive since they are not the major shareholders now yet.
Both group of people are aiming for the same land. And when nearer the ECRL results coming soon, then end of the day both groups will have same buying pattern.
Current Net Tangible Assets in total RM315m (Kuantan Land value at RM8.4/sqft) Revaluation of Kuantan Land Value RM130m (Based on immediate sellable RM15/sqft)
TOTAL ACTUAL NTA IN TOTAL RM445m Current share base 403m shares
NTA per SHARE RM1.10 !!!!!!!
Now you know why this shares so attractive for major investor groups?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Investing_Bursa
2,487 posts
Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2020-04-21 11:22 | Report Abuse
Steady steady. Rock steady sure wins the race !