Posted by shamopi > 2017-05-19 02:24 | Report Abuse

Cash flow hedge means the company enters into derivative to hedge against cash inflow (receipts) and/or outflow (payments). The loss position means there was as a negative impact from the position they took against FYE rate... Usually that means they hedged maybe USD at a higher exchange rate vs financial year end rate

Posted by shamopi > 2017-05-19 02:25 | Report Abuse

Would like to add that the impact will crystalize into P&L when the derivative is executed and/or the hedging effectiveness test indicates that hedging is ineffective

Posted by slts > 2017-05-19 07:50 | Report Abuse

profit Q on Q increased slightly only
likely priced in already. no show today

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 08:16 | Report Abuse

lol it is never a priced in.this stock is undervalued.u must be stupid or never followup with this stock thats why u dun know whats going on.

Posted by goodjoe > 2017-05-19 08:36 | Report Abuse

How to "price in" if you don't know the earnings yet? LMAO. Don't Google and recycle terms here la. Anyway... up or down is due to many factors, but the trend is upwards for this counter. There are very little reasons to go down, barring catastrophic events. Then again, investors and market forces are extremely fickle, but if you observe, high p/e companies will take the hit first.

Posted by KUCIMIAO > 2017-05-19 09:10 | Report Abuse

beautiful...

Posted by JKWIN > 2017-05-19 09:16 | Report Abuse

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/233039

Posted by magus > 2017-05-19 09:34 | Report Abuse

This clueless meistsk sees the words 'deficit situation' and then starts to talk gibberish. The deficit situation in question refers to the supply and demand for aluminium; everyone who has been following this thread knows that supply is tightening while demand is expanding and hence the deficit situation. And as for cautiously optimistic, well, practically all companies will use those two words to describe their prospects from time to time. people who don't know shit should just be careful what they say before making fools of themselves. Lmao!

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-05-19 10:06 | Report Abuse

yeah la u all god like speak behave aruge manner. i just newbie here.

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 10:25 | Report Abuse

meistsk3134... just some info for you.. any newbie is allow to talk freely. good or bad.. but pls speak with some responsibility if you want ppl to respect you... just don mention something just based on no reason.. remind me of nicky really... haha.. that i agree..

Posted by RJ87 > 2017-05-19 11:20 | Report Abuse

Just saying...For those to think who sees 52W RM1.532-4.45 and feels that RM2.76 is cheap. It's not. because if you were to undo the 2:5 split. It's actually trading at RM6.85.

Since we know the QR. The PE now is about 16. Before announcement, people are willing to trade at forward PE of 18~20 that time. Assuming that people are still confident with PMetal that EPS will continue to grow since the cheaper samalaju port is operational, I can foresee better profit conversion trade at PE18~20 with EPS 17 before next QR.

IMHO, the selling price would be RM3.08-RM3.40. Unparallel growth in revenue and profit can simply means re-investment into the business. Perhaps, someone can shed some light what re-investment.

It's a forum. I think sharing analysis this way is better than just accusing that people "do not know what's going on". If anyone here can really shed some light on how EPS magically doubles to 8sen per share next QR, then next week market will trade at PE20 next week. Else, I would say the price now is "priced in" if it just gonna do another 4sen EPS with PE 16.

Posted by goodjoe > 2017-05-19 11:56 | Report Abuse

Good one rj87. Let's wait for magic hands now.

Posted by paktua73 > 2017-05-19 12:19 | Report Abuse

Done at 2.76 profit first.. Oldman not greedy..sell when people crazy buying..oldman never die.

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 12:35 | Report Abuse

thanks RJ 87, but i need to mention a few words ppl often forget, no 1 logistic cost for pmetal is reducing and will only be reducing more when semalaju deep sea port start commencing, estimate cost saving about 30m to 40m per annum, no 2 the Q1 aluminium price is increasing and still increasing from beyond march as the report was publish, no 3 is the company gradually producing more and more value added product and that improve the company profit margin...

Posted by Peng1185 > 2017-05-19 12:48 | Report Abuse

Add more @ RM 2.77 this morning.
Parking at RM 2.72 couldn't get it yesterday, haha have to pay more. today lor...

Posted by goodjoe > 2017-05-19 12:51 | Report Abuse

Just keep the share .... I am sure it will go up. Also there is a meeting in June right? Probably will share more good news there.

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 13:02 | Report Abuse

my own assumption
Q4 2016 aluminium LME average 1672 NET profit('000) 131779
Q1 2017 aluminium LME average 1810 NET profit('000) 148049
Q2 2017 aluminium LME average 1922 NET profit('000) 175000

The Q2 2017 already half way, just ask yourself you believe aluminium will continue to be in the same price and even go higher?
with the deep sea port commenced then there will be extra 10m per quarter in Q3 2017, so 185000 will be very likely if the aluminium stay at current price

profit of 148049 translate to EPS of 0.04, i estimate the next Q2 EPS should be around 0.046.By assuming 0.184 as annual EPS..


PE 15.5 price 2.85(worst estimation)
PE 18.0 price 3.31(average estimation)
PE 20.0 price 3.68(good estimation)

and this analysis is basically on par with most investment bank analysis, and please don't forget that Mr paul koon did mention in the past that why Pmetal with such a huge market size and bright future cannot enjoy the PE 20 like most other business with similar market size, i do agree with him and we shall see what good news he will bring to us in the next AGM in near future.

disclaimer- i dont count Forex exchange in my analysis and it is also quite important in profit analysis after aluminum price..
money KJ pls make some clarification... he always able to make a more precise analysis than me..

Posted by Raymond6688 > 2017-05-19 13:02 | Report Abuse

bought at 2.95 .. thinking should i sell?

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 13:08 | Report Abuse

share some news in case someone miss it..
According to a recent report from CNBC, Goldman expects aluminum prices to hit the $2,000 per metric ton point in six months and $2,100 per ton in a year

https://www.investing.com/analysis/aluminum-price-forecast,-may-2017:-goldman-sachs-bullish-200188206

Posted by goodjoe > 2017-05-19 13:16 | Report Abuse

Exactly... Just keep it

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 13:19 | Report Abuse

I just receive news rhb increase TP to 3.6.also waiting for june AGM on buyback share as proposed.hopefully that will be the "magic" we all waiting for

Posted by goodjoe > 2017-05-19 13:35 | Report Abuse

Yup. Thanks for sharing hunger.

Posted by Longterminvestors > 2017-05-19 14:22 | Report Abuse

its 3.66 hunger... Haha...just minor correction... My t.p short term 3.33

Posted by salman > 2017-05-19 14:29 | Report Abuse

hunger buyback share? what do u mean..?

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 14:36 | Report Abuse

yeah @Longerm-i just estimate ler,no need so accurate lol.

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 14:36 | Report Abuse

Stock buybacks refer to the repurchasing of shares of stock by the company that issued them. Essentially, a buyback occurs when the issuing company pays shareholders the market value per share and re-absorbs that portion of its ownership that was previously distributed among public and private investors

Posted by salman > 2017-05-19 14:45 | Report Abuse

hunger does that mean the share value will go higher?

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 15:19 | Report Abuse

means less share will be in the market for pmetal

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 15:29 | Report Abuse

Advantage to us investor
-lowers the number of shares outstanding which in return should help to increase the share price. As the company physically buys stock, there is automatically more demand.
-management shows confidence in its own business while at the same time providing buying support for the stock. Market sentiment towards the stock may improve, which could trigger additional buying.

Posted by Whitelady > 2017-05-19 15:49 | Report Abuse

Hunger, is It a right time now to buy or wait until AGM buyback on June?

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 15:52 | Report Abuse

this 1 i dare not comment.not sure how far it may drop or go up lol.if u feel at this point it wont drop d,can buy,but if u still recall when the price drop to 2.73 liddat can buy in

Posted by fresh investor > 2017-05-19 16:43 | Report Abuse

i'm curious why the seller wanna to sell lower price instead of higher price at this good period which is good result just announce & aluminium price increase.

Posted by davkitz > 2017-05-19 17:03 | Report Abuse

I believe Jan to April 2017 period have up a lot due to superb QR earnings..compared to the QR now maybe no that impressive to traders may think the price has alrdy up to the max level

Posted by fresh investor > 2017-05-19 17:12 | Report Abuse

if the seller wanna to take profit, i believe they can sell at 2.75 & above with any volume.

Posted by RJ87 > 2017-05-19 17:50 | Report Abuse

@Hui Xin Sim, why pay for future PE20 if there is no drastic indication of EPS improvement?

unlike QR3,16 to QR4,16...Annual EPS improved from 12.36sen to 16.04sen. Market traded at PE20 before QR4,16 was announced.

Now, before QR1,17 was announced, the market was trading at PE19 at price of RM3 before backing off to PE17/18. Now,QR1,17 is out. Annual EPS is 17sen and trading at PE16.

For the market to buy at future PE20, the annual EPS has to improve to 20sen with QR2,17 reporting EPS of 6~7sen in QR2,17. 4.6sen will not be good enough. People will have to believe that QR2,17 report minimum of EPS 6~7sen for them to trade at PE18~20 at priced at RM3.10 to RM3.50.

If someone can come back with info on the new smelter operating at what capacity in this quarter. Then we can project the revenue and PBT. The max capacity is 760000tonnes. Looking at it's revenue, I think it's already operating at atleast 80% if not 100% of it's maximum capacity.

Now, all eyes its actually on the Samalaju port. How much PMetal can save starting from 1 Apr 17. And if aluminium price can exceed USD2000 per tonne. We shall see in Aug,17.


P.S. I AM HOLDING this counter.

Posted by happy123 > 2017-05-19 18:11 | Report Abuse

I've not seen such a logical analysis by someone for a long time, well done RJ87! People kept shouting for the price to go up without any solid data to back-up, no doubt this is a solid company. I wish it will go much further as well since I'm still holding a big chunk but we need to be realistic

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 18:15 | Report Abuse

So...everyone start sell the share?okay

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 18:31 | Report Abuse

@RJ 87 I personally did not use PE 20 for my own calculation, I just said director himself said that.

Posted by Hui Xin Sim > 2017-05-19 18:36 | Report Abuse

I hold this for almost 1 year and I added my holding many times along the way.. I do believe that it is not over value yet as it is one of the most efficient smelter in SEA

Posted by happy123 > 2017-05-19 18:38 | Report Abuse

Hunger...investors are paying diff PE for diff markets eg, Japan & USA, and even between S&P, DJ and Nasdaq are commanding diff PE. I would think the current PE of 16 is reasonable at the current trading price and in KLSE market, company needs to have the ability to demonstrate higher EPS in the future quarters to push the price to the next level. Many are willing to invest based on future PE (eg Amazon had -ve PE for years), let's all hope for more good days to come for PMetal!

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 18:43 | Report Abuse

Actually i observe bursa not acting like what it is suppose to be.netx got lower profit yet it goes up.myeg going down for god knows what happen.

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 19:37 | Report Abuse

Summore if im not wrong.TP given by kenanga research house is 3.3 based on aluminium price 1,780?now the aluminium price is above 1,900

Posted by FarmbesFlyer > 2017-05-19 19:42 | Report Abuse

Pmetal will go further as follows :

(1) aluminum price will break 2000 USD per ton before China winter ! Possible to touch 2200 !
(2) 3rd phase new smelter plant !

Good luck for those keep holding.

Posted by WavesRider > 2017-05-19 19:51 | Report Abuse

sold pmetal at 2.80, bought back at 2.74. continue sell q at 2.92. finger crossed.

Posted by RJ87 > 2017-05-19 19:59 | Report Abuse

@Hui Xin Sim, refer to your best case scenario of PE20 trading at RM3.68.

I'm not denying that could be the best. My question is how much more money PMetal can make?
My best bet is profit conversion. Converting more of the RM2Billion into higher profit.

My personal TP is about RM 3.2. If next quarter EPS 6~7. Then, we can aim RM4 liao.

Posted by Ahead1268 > 2017-05-19 20:19 | Report Abuse

Wah! Aim higher and higher. Today seem big timer selling tak profit wo

Posted by Hunger > 2017-05-19 20:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.investing.com/commodities/aluminum-streaming-chart

aluminium price rising and china supply dropping.hitting 2,000 soon?

Posted by RJ87 > 2017-05-19 23:09 | Report Abuse

Those who think got space to grow mar buy lo...Those who think it's at it's fair value mar sell lo...

Plenty of other stock...but not many comes with good fundamentals like this...

Posted by pumpndump > 2017-05-19 23:49 | Report Abuse

steady steady.. a pullback is just a setup for a comeback. healthy trend

Posted by JKWIN > 2017-05-20 10:06 | Report Abuse

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170520/%E9%BD%90%E5%8A%9Bbr-%E7%9B%88%E5%88%A9%E5%B1%95%E6%9C%9B%E5%8F%AF%E6%9C%9F/