if u trust him last year and throw gadang at rm1.30...really cry no tears...gadang was 1.30 when he posted the exact same thing.
Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 16, 2015 09:33 PM | Report Abuse
Counting chickens before they are hatched?
Be careful lor!
I visited Pengerang's RAPID twice. There are not enough accommodation nor workers there in Sungei Ringgit! All the skilled workers have left for Spore! Think Bangla will do the job? Think again.
As for Capital City 21 I pass by there almost every week as I have a house nearby in Kempas. Better go and see the progress yourself. It might be a Gajah instead of Gadang - a white elephant. It might well be Gadang's Achilles heel. Better throw all Gadang shares first thing tomorrow!
calvintaneng sifu, you should oso check how property company recording their unbilled sales, and how they recognized their revenue, no doubt there is room for manipulation, but up to before year end oni, unless the auditor didnt do their job,
and study together what is progress billing. and then revenue recognition for property developer and post in your blog to teach me. If you can go into detailed like when there is a default of payment by buyers, how it will be treated in the accounts, what action can the developer take, bla bla bla...
For an investor, one would want to buy a business that can grow and with some strong sense of certainty, it will grow. The worry for Gadang is that one may have bought at its high and for this kind of stocks it may take a long time to come back, once it has dropped.
Just today, it announced a result that even surprised me. Despite this, my say is not to look at the quarter to quarter results - it is the underlying fundamentals and where it has protected itself in its business. Gadang has not done well enough in that category.
I would like to have a disclaimer, Gadang is not a bad company but can be dangerous for traders.
typical plot lar. Step 1 sked u and u sell like madness . Step 2 sifus come out to side gadang with facts & reason to buy. Step 3 General meeting Q&A and management answers to calm and give confidents. Step 4 Price goes up again after share split
Those people sell like madness heart broken and chase high again.
Lets look at things objectively, The last time gadang posted a drop in net profit for a quarter was in 23 April 2015 and 23 January 2014. Look at the graph.
There was either a drop beforehand or the drop recovered within 1-2 weeks or in the case of the latest one where there was a pre-drop before quarter announcement, it took 1 month plus.
It will drop tomorrow. It should drop by about 10-20 sen. This is fundamentally a very very god company, find me another company that can show you 5 year continuous increase in profit.
It will drop and it will recover quickly, like KESM and Topglov.
No wonder the director sold a bunch of shares recently. As I said earlier this week, sell on strength. Expect Gadang to retest RM 3. There are after all too many punters who dont even know Gadang business crowding this stock. Also, Gadang is a small cap construction player. To me, Gadang will never trade more than 12-13x PE. The upside is limited from here. The downside? Plenty. Property unbilled sales in dwindling. Construction order book is dwindling as well. Although it is fair that getting MRT 2 package may boost its earnings visibility, lets not forget that there is a lead time between getting the project and billing your customers. And also, dont expect Gafang to record 15% margin from the new project. Expect Gadang profit to drop by at least 25% after 12 months. Since the market tends to anticipate events six months earlier, allow me to predict Gadang share price will start finding its true value in April or May 2017.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
keke
784 posts
Posted by keke > 2016-10-27 23:04 | Report Abuse
wei, u watch too many pua chua kang is it...outdate la u....pua chua kang n years already la