all yeaR round 18.8 cts.....boleh lah 2015 is super abnormal mah...invesrment 60 mil still exists..if america got more $$$$ they buy more rv loh....... good to flbhd mah
64.5m for one quarter is indeed strong but management stated that 64.5m includes revenue from previous quarter which had been delayed to this quarter for recognition but I don't know how much.
Let say it is 15m to be transferred back to previous quarter. That means this quarter only around 50m true revenue.
Full year revenue RM201.476millions compared to last year full year revenue of RM180.733millons, 13% annual growth in revenue. Compare profitability on gross profit and less the forex gain/loss, gross profit for FY2015 was RM28.9millions and this FY2016, it is RM27.95millions!
With the new machinery and equipment the company can produce different types and sizes of plywood, revenue will grow again. The future is bright especially with Trumponomics where there will be very much more fiscal spending and the demand for plywood will escalate.
Let say EPS high because of previous quarter shipment report in this quarter. So we discount a bit and say EPS is 6 cents. They also say with new machine, can get more sales and better pricing going forward. So going forward, next 12 months EPS will be minimum 24 cents,but with Trumponomics, strong USD etc. Can repeat 8 cents per quarter or 32 cents a year. Apply your own multiplier and they you get your future share price. Worst case scenario RM1.96. Best case scenario RM3.20. My calculation say fair value going forward is RM2.56.
Why everybody keep asking about dividend? They normally give year end. You know how expensive to give dividends. Have to pay bank fees, have to mail statements, profesional service fees etc. With so many shareholders, I think will cost in the thousands.
Also like bank, put money in FD than wait for maturity to get dividend. They just paid in January, now you want them to pay another one. Maybe management is good, can get better returns. Than year end declare dividend and in Dec or Jan 2018 pay you dividend. Your job is to estimate the yield, than see good yield or not, with prospect for capital appreciation.
Or maybe, want to spend the money and give directors big bonuses or special vacation or buy private jet and go shopping in London, Paris etc.....Arrrggghhh!!!!
With USD exchange rate above 4.40, EPS will improve from next Q onward as compared to last year, expect the price will go up slowly this year, downside risk is not much.
Malaysian retailers sell on news (announcements of results) and buy on rumours. Hopefully, the price will move up steadily..... I don't believe all fund managers have not spotted this counter and be attracted to it.... Now as of Dec 2016, Cash per share is almost 90sen.... By the end of the year, cash per share would likely be RM1.00 EPS at least 20sen.... crazy people keep selling at 1.70!! :)
Focus Lumber and value investing. Author: stockmanmy | Publish date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017, 10:12 PM
Q4 results 8 sen on $ 64 million revenue. Full year 19 sen on $ 200 million revenue. but no dividend proposed.
what is amazing is............cash and investments $ 90 million or 90 sen per share.
total NTA $ 1.55 per share meaning rest of NTA of 65 sen generates earnings of 19 sen. Returns on invested fund 29%.
But the share is half dead throughout the year.
How to do value investing in Malaysia?
With cash and investments $ 90 million and little need for funds....why so little dividend?
Forecast and what to do?
Irrespective how good the fundamentals, my forecast, the share will do well for 1 or 2 days and fizzle out soon after. ....until and unless they do some corporate development work.
What to do with value investing? Can give superior returns or not?
Why is value investing so under appreciated in Malaysia?
RAIDER COMMENT;
THE ABOVE WITE UP INDICATE THE AUTHOR, HARD NOT DO ENOUGH IN DEPTH RESEARCH AND DO NOT REALLY KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET AND MAKE USE OF FINANCIAL DATA LOH...!!
IN ORDER WORDS HE IS NOT QUALIFY FOR VALUE INVESTMENT LOH...!!
if FLB use the money to expand, than can tok: not necessary can get good return, keep on use the money to expand, one day will collapse oso.. shareholders will eventually get nothing many examples ma...
Very good question loh...!! FLB has a dividend policy 60%...they have been honoring it for a long time mah....!! The management can be trusted....in fact when in crisis in SEPT bcos mis-shipment....they declare handsome div of rm 0.06 loh...!!
The company is cash rich, thus paying div no problem loh...!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tksw
12,858 posts
Posted by tksw > 2017-02-21 23:23 | Report Abuse
lurky today penggoreng did not eat my sell Q at 169...if not loss die me